FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by win

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win ▼
3 Australia AUS b 69.04 1.6546 1.2727 0.0017 0.0177 0.001560015567208 0.00044555729625 9.4428772429e-05 1.4426893535e-05
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.05 1.3531 0.9672 0.0004 0.0332 0.006599711876393 0.002218210582229 0.000532340428649 6.9930565999e-05
1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1191 1.1659 0.0572 0.2011 0.037598887698821 0.007784490409786 0.000960294827678 0.000123459942526
23 Japan JPN c 73.13 2.0751 1.3309 0.0099 0.0963 0.037719111035921 0.009878204043086 0.002730955747414 0.0003992761189
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2971 0.8897 0.0354 0.1876 0.056641734644481 0.015335831471601 0.002428390291814 0.000439025782836
20 Honduras HON e 70.01 1.5756 1.1482 0.0569 0.2008 0.050004520629352 0.014818548717965 0.00325954901246 0.000472875107405
19 Greece GRE c 74.29 1.2891 0.6597 0.0094 0.1444 0.059057246276846 0.016811992435881 0.004857049294712 0.000790324885123
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6883 1.0835 0.1424 0.3826 0.10176215345634 0.02875225661197 0.005493943192592 0.000975369363159
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.07 1.6598 0.8902 0.0669 0.3175 0.117477667814105 0.038906196350013 0.007872757571403 0.001779557057987
12 Croatia CRO a 76.22 1.8052 0.9215 0.0023 0.3793 0.103323169876281 0.044303794964945 0.014100768085761 0.002512051495659
31 Uruguay URU d 80.89 2.194 0.8617 0.0584 0.2102 0.092446791578924 0.023835586304788 0.009683208319223 0.002991854636353
18 Ghana GHA g 77.38 1.9044 0.9135 0.0885 0.309 0.151570853391284 0.052530446274753 0.015891783497206 0.003393687271548
32 USA USA g 77.76 2.0627 1.0004 0.0956 0.344 0.17253668031371 0.060609978267342 0.018850200021257 0.004143272686408
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.03 1.9791 0.9216 0.1777 0.447 0.164891215638916 0.065903768023967 0.019197644045427 0.004517527374769
25 Mexico MEX a 77.77 1.5407 0.6249 0.0284 0.589 0.170455241590639 0.075206381812192 0.025327771144111 0.00483322686652
14 England ENG d 82.21 2.1617 0.7381 0.0842 0.3228 0.146428377897102 0.039162217538005 0.016599455534634 0.005442438036593
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.48 1.5852 0.6767 0.4091 0.7195 0.285536903230013 0.076686460176757 0.025785679861343 0.005532621481122
29 Russia RUS h 78.98 1.6544 0.625 0.3045 0.6309 0.23599983764316 0.087093523048574 0.024834288698619 0.006021521670105
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.8 2.0274 0.7549 0.2373 0.5623 0.232782669664075 0.102791764052184 0.033818892565163 0.009312020053874
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.23 2.3098 0.9905 0.1642 0.574 0.26874938737868 0.114896369849656 0.032989749806058 0.009481814336275
15 Spain ESP b 86.78 2.6112 0.6368 0.0292 0.2508 0.06869215611347 0.040860525023039 0.021744159198933 0.00989038578156
22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.036 0.8097 0.4483 0.7475 0.336809322559795 0.105950694724692 0.040365076028128 0.01003918854591
28 Portugal POR g 80.99 2.1415 0.8184 0.1532 0.4728 0.264878953388448 0.108980075262669 0.038585438278017 0.01027620888747
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.17 2.2141 1.0043 0.2227 0.7952 0.401877896883583 0.128634848220148 0.047935824675925 0.01124409321598
4 Belgium BEL h 82.06 2.1405 0.7355 0.4959 0.7854 0.358667740662492 0.152204670838105 0.057301179712534 0.016179237405706
16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4866 0.6193 0.5281 0.7899 0.446932662591163 0.243424466062159 0.091385307268714 0.038308154906802
7 Chile CHI b 86.79 2.7203 0.7033 0.3026 0.773 0.320302708358745 0.202418176241842 0.108908494097964 0.043698544435827
10 Colombia COL c 87.69 2.3949 0.4158 0.758 0.9641 0.640124350537793 0.219328658405039 0.118595774707873 0.054966349323482
26 Netherlands NED b 86.92 2.8119 0.747 0.6665 0.9585 0.538273947480935 0.351766532060416 0.191517311088176 0.071686046907022
17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1972 0.7786 0.6627 0.8742 0.676984893445781 0.444575332121496 0.199217882705092 0.109782046624266
2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8521 0.4498 0.7335 0.9209 0.662520141639225 0.461392282637745 0.283216416982212 0.130879647357264
6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.3847 0.5572 0.9689 0.9985 0.790793049136349 0.66249216017071 0.535917984538475 0.429803814982014

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140615-092237" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);