2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140616-182949.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by semi

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi ▼ cup win
3 Australia AUS b 68.84 1.649 1.2804 0.0014 0.0185 0.0015366056208479999 0.000417526285491 8.137172244600001e-05 1.2114490154e-05
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.02 1.3536 0.9693 0.0004 0.0331 0.006656570176216 0.002280519023282 0.000512747587615 6.431388013399999e-05
20 Honduras HON e 68.35 1.5065 1.1953 0.0052 0.0716 0.011355051096223997 0.0034754940029170004 0.0008333264902510001 9.7611149254e-05
1 Algeria ALG h 63.35 1.1188 1.166 0.0607 0.2021 0.033816542569478 0.006114252120266999 0.000813460141238 9.537826026799999e-05
23 Japan JPN c 73.12 2.0752 1.3316 0.0107 0.1017 0.03997520066082601 0.010290926559424998 0.002578083566851 0.000368189864653
21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2978 0.8898 0.0231 0.1818 0.046453841804144996 0.011251819932085 0.001743290907938 0.000305453880747
19 Greece GRE c 74.35 1.2919999999999998 0.6577 0.0094 0.1456 0.059750126256784004 0.017136503250229997 0.004649817492274 0.000739261803408
31 Uruguay URU d 80.77 2.1806 0.8603 0.0596 0.2113 0.09205071676281198 0.023833273910237998 0.008924428738511 0.002637089738336
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6882 1.0828 0.1441 0.3861 0.09774799198815999 0.024188107652123998 0.0048678831556209995 0.000806054733978
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.78 1.9875 0.8012 0.0295 0.1956 0.061277483873865 0.027860286091582 0.010385888601336001 0.002379083344032
27 Nigeria NGA f 75.02 1.6593 0.8921 0.0503 0.3132 0.09929455845280802 0.030072134381272996 0.006102091518788 0.0013223880417330002
15 Spain ESP b 86.75 2.6107 0.6378 0.0264 0.243 0.066446721590112 0.039353191706735 0.019810319825044997 0.00873577379438
14 England ENG d 82.19 2.1702 0.7440000000000001 0.0898 0.3271 0.149321892006044 0.040724496449871 0.016098271633555 0.005071055611345
12 Croatia CRO a 76.37 1.8136 0.9164 0.0034 0.3885 0.10710996007368499 0.046098452395483006 0.013839394060150001 0.002423438375686
18 Ghana GHA g 77.37 1.9046 0.9141 0.0538 0.3524 0.170193672413243 0.050394645035541995 0.016681173636964 0.0032906776678549997
32 USA USA g 77.53 2.0458 1.0036 0.0608 0.368 0.18191774135826896 0.054924946079556995 0.01829981518557 0.0036898684118490004
28 Portugal POR g 80.92 2.1411 0.8218 0.0135 0.3045 0.166777622812808 0.057321316328499 0.024171675466025 0.005711953293452999
25 Mexico MEX a 77.47 1.5187 0.6278 0.0311 0.5798 0.165799743957665 0.07241833032798799 0.022404032943477002 0.004114165730269
29 Russia RUS h 78.95 1.6554 0.6267 0.2984 0.6316 0.229338049522111 0.075063120896798 0.021943097151758996 0.005103749504671
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.4 1.5919999999999999 0.6859 0.4006 0.7138 0.284392582522351 0.075994855960295 0.02358543400625 0.004906054353158
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.81 2.3194 0.9513 0.0298 0.5239 0.21443470507990398 0.081608872552638 0.019508795675246004 0.006581143726845999
22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.0362 0.8086 0.45 0.7478 0.337568227765774 0.106015471806184 0.037869138061877 0.009175993330250999
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.31 2.0712 0.8939 0.2565 0.8017 0.275158721701372 0.11520907323737402 0.037491267996849 0.008937602820852
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.11 2.2107 1.0052 0.2248 0.79 0.39851475878562503 0.12703286257731 0.044130676207614995 0.01005632071382
4 Belgium BEL h 82.1 2.1462 0.7351 0.4968 0.7802 0.36005382831722205 0.137544906762502 0.05288834597158099 0.014471337031049998
7 Chile CHI b 86.77 2.7182 0.7020000000000001 0.3152 0.7776 0.32649007837165 0.20703970396135396 0.105775392801819 0.041407898505062005
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3961 0.4209 0.7551 0.9627 0.638426495239688 0.21896792831585102 0.111385116459288 0.050054788383472
16 France FRA e 87.49 2.6233 0.5744 0.7088 0.9311 0.5774901682275949 0.31150571789853404 0.120420293320914 0.055744891492630996
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8015 0.7438 0.657 0.9609 0.5344393731673079 0.34837998274674103 0.179161091979277 0.065972696559731
17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1985 0.7763 0.8719 0.9751 0.7601545510188331 0.4862984993182729 0.20261194730306198 0.11398089315736698
2 Argentina ARG f 90.51 2.9010000000000002 0.4164 0.8968 0.9811 0.714535469764095 0.52716680771004 0.34733417321437104 0.159119443366043
6 Brazil BRA a 91.61 3.3851 0.5567 0.9651 0.9986 0.791520947042528 0.664015974723537 0.523098157176441 0.412623314983512

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140616-182949" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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