2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140616-182949.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header	Definition
`spi`	Soccer Power Index
`spi_offense`	Soccer Power Index offensive rating
`spi_defense`	Soccer Power Index defensive rating
`win_group`	Change of coming in first place in the group stage
`sixteen`	Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
`quarter`	Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
`semi`	Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
`cup`	Chance of making it to the final game
`win`	Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by win_group

descending

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Link	rowid	country	country_id	group	spi	spi_offense	spi_defense	win_group ▼	sixteen	quarter	semi	cup	win
9	9	Cameroon	CMR	a	70.02	1.3536	0.9693	0.0004	0.0331	0.006656570176216	0.002280519023282	0.000512747587615	6.431388013399999e-05
3	3	Australia	AUS	b	68.84	1.649	1.2804	0.0014	0.0185	0.0015366056208479999	0.000417526285491	8.137172244600001e-05	1.2114490154e-05
12	12	Croatia	CRO	a	76.37	1.8136	0.9164	0.0034	0.3885	0.10710996007368499	0.046098452395483006	0.013839394060150001	0.002423438375686
20	20	Honduras	HON	e	68.35	1.5065	1.1953	0.0052	0.0716	0.011355051096223997	0.0034754940029170004	0.0008333264902510001	9.7611149254e-05
19	19	Greece	GRE	c	74.35	1.2919999999999998	0.6577	0.0094	0.1456	0.059750126256784004	0.017136503250229997	0.004649817492274	0.000739261803408
23	23	Japan	JPN	c	73.12	2.0752	1.3316	0.0107	0.1017	0.03997520066082601	0.010290926559424998	0.002578083566851	0.000368189864653
28	28	Portugal	POR	g	80.92	2.1411	0.8218	0.0135	0.3045	0.166777622812808	0.057321316328499	0.024171675466025	0.005711953293452999
21	21	Iran	IRN	f	70.6	1.2978	0.8898	0.0231	0.1818	0.046453841804144996	0.011251819932085	0.001743290907938	0.000305453880747
15	15	Spain	ESP	b	86.75	2.6107	0.6378	0.0264	0.243	0.066446721590112	0.039353191706735	0.019810319825044997	0.00873577379438
13	13	Ecuador	ECU	e	79.78	1.9875	0.8012	0.0295	0.1956	0.061277483873865	0.027860286091582	0.010385888601336001	0.002379083344032
5	5	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BIH	f	80.81	2.3194	0.9513	0.0298	0.5239	0.21443470507990398	0.081608872552638	0.019508795675246004	0.006581143726845999
25	25	Mexico	MEX	a	77.47	1.5187	0.6278	0.0311	0.5798	0.165799743957665	0.07241833032798799	0.022404032943477002	0.004114165730269
27	27	Nigeria	NGA	f	75.02	1.6593	0.8921	0.0503	0.3132	0.09929455845280802	0.030072134381272996	0.006102091518788	0.0013223880417330002
18	18	Ghana	GHA	g	77.37	1.9046	0.9141	0.0538	0.3524	0.170193672413243	0.050394645035541995	0.016681173636964	0.0032906776678549997
31	31	Uruguay	URU	d	80.77	2.1806	0.8603	0.0596	0.2113	0.09205071676281198	0.023833273910237998	0.008924428738511	0.002637089738336
1	1	Algeria	ALG	h	63.35	1.1188	1.166	0.0607	0.2021	0.033816542569478	0.006114252120266999	0.000813460141238	9.537826026799999e-05
32	32	USA	USA	g	77.53	2.0458	1.0036	0.0608	0.368	0.18191774135826896	0.054924946079556995	0.01829981518557	0.0036898684118490004
14	14	England	ENG	d	82.19	2.1702	0.7440000000000001	0.0898	0.3271	0.149321892006044	0.040724496449871	0.016098271633555	0.005071055611345
24	24	South Korea	KOR	h	72.42	1.6882	1.0828	0.1441	0.3861	0.09774799198815999	0.024188107652123998	0.0048678831556209995	0.000806054733978
8	8	Ivory Coast	CIV	c	79.11	2.2107	1.0052	0.2248	0.79	0.39851475878562503	0.12703286257731	0.044130676207614995	0.01005632071382
30	30	Switzerland	SUI	e	79.31	2.0712	0.8939	0.2565	0.8017	0.275158721701372	0.11520907323737402	0.037491267996849	0.008937602820852
29	29	Russia	RUS	h	78.95	1.6554	0.6267	0.2984	0.6316	0.229338049522111	0.075063120896798	0.021943097151758996	0.005103749504671
7	7	Chile	CHI	b	86.77	2.7182	0.7020000000000001	0.3152	0.7776	0.32649007837165	0.20703970396135396	0.105775392801819	0.041407898505062005
11	11	Costa Rica	CRC	d	77.4	1.5919999999999999	0.6859	0.4006	0.7138	0.284392582522351	0.075994855960295	0.02358543400625	0.004906054353158
22	22	Italy	ITA	d	80.14	2.0362	0.8086	0.45	0.7478	0.337568227765774	0.106015471806184	0.037869138061877	0.009175993330250999
4	4	Belgium	BEL	h	82.1	2.1462	0.7351	0.4968	0.7802	0.36005382831722205	0.137544906762502	0.05288834597158099	0.014471337031049998
26	26	Netherlands	NED	b	86.87	2.8015	0.7438	0.657	0.9609	0.5344393731673079	0.34837998274674103	0.179161091979277	0.065972696559731
16	16	France	FRA	e	87.49	2.6233	0.5744	0.7088	0.9311	0.5774901682275949	0.31150571789853404	0.120420293320914	0.055744891492630996
10	10	Colombia	COL	c	87.62	2.3961	0.4209	0.7551	0.9627	0.638426495239688	0.21896792831585102	0.111385116459288	0.050054788383472
17	17	Germany	GER	g	88.87	3.1985	0.7763	0.8719	0.9751	0.7601545510188331	0.4862984993182729	0.20261194730306198	0.11398089315736698
2	2	Argentina	ARG	f	90.51	2.9010000000000002	0.4164	0.8968	0.9811	0.714535469764095	0.52716680771004	0.34733417321437104	0.159119443366043
6	6	Brazil	BRA	a	91.61	3.3851	0.5567	0.9651	0.9986	0.791520947042528	0.664015974723537	0.523098157176441	0.412623314983512

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140616-182949" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);