2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140616-182949.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by win_group

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group ▼ sixteen quarter semi cup win
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 70.02 1.3536 0.9693 0.0004 0.0331 0.006656570176216 0.002280519023282 0.000512747587615 6.4313880134e-05
3 3 Australia AUS b 68.84 1.649 1.2804 0.0014 0.0185 0.001536605620848 0.000417526285491 8.1371722446e-05 1.2114490154e-05
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.37 1.8136 0.9164 0.0034 0.3885 0.107109960073685 0.046098452395483 0.01383939406015 0.002423438375686
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.35 1.5065 1.1953 0.0052 0.0716 0.011355051096224 0.003475494002917 0.000833326490251 9.7611149254e-05
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.35 1.292 0.6577 0.0094 0.1456 0.059750126256784 0.01713650325023 0.004649817492274 0.000739261803408
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.12 2.0752 1.3316 0.0107 0.1017 0.039975200660826 0.010290926559425 0.002578083566851 0.000368189864653
28 28 Portugal POR g 80.92 2.1411 0.8218 0.0135 0.3045 0.166777622812808 0.057321316328499 0.024171675466025 0.005711953293453
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2978 0.8898 0.0231 0.1818 0.046453841804145 0.011251819932085 0.001743290907938 0.000305453880747
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.75 2.6107 0.6378 0.0264 0.243 0.066446721590112 0.039353191706735 0.019810319825045 0.00873577379438
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 79.78 1.9875 0.8012 0.0295 0.1956 0.061277483873865 0.027860286091582 0.010385888601336 0.002379083344032
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.81 2.3194 0.9513 0.0298 0.5239 0.214434705079904 0.081608872552638 0.019508795675246 0.006581143726846
25 25 Mexico MEX a 77.47 1.5187 0.6278 0.0311 0.5798 0.165799743957665 0.072418330327988 0.022404032943477 0.004114165730269
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 75.02 1.6593 0.8921 0.0503 0.3132 0.099294558452808 0.030072134381273 0.006102091518788 0.001322388041733
18 18 Ghana GHA g 77.37 1.9046 0.9141 0.0538 0.3524 0.170193672413243 0.050394645035542 0.016681173636964 0.003290677667855
31 31 Uruguay URU d 80.77 2.1806 0.8603 0.0596 0.2113 0.092050716762812 0.023833273910238 0.008924428738511 0.002637089738336
1 1 Algeria ALG h 63.35 1.1188 1.166 0.0607 0.2021 0.033816542569478 0.006114252120267 0.000813460141238 9.5378260268e-05
32 32 USA USA g 77.53 2.0458 1.0036 0.0608 0.368 0.181917741358269 0.054924946079557 0.01829981518557 0.003689868411849
14 14 England ENG d 82.19 2.1702 0.744 0.0898 0.3271 0.149321892006044 0.040724496449871 0.016098271633555 0.005071055611345
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6882 1.0828 0.1441 0.3861 0.09774799198816 0.024188107652124 0.004867883155621 0.000806054733978
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.11 2.2107 1.0052 0.2248 0.79 0.398514758785625 0.12703286257731 0.044130676207615 0.01005632071382
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.31 2.0712 0.8939 0.2565 0.8017 0.275158721701372 0.115209073237374 0.037491267996849 0.008937602820852
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.95 1.6554 0.6267 0.2984 0.6316 0.229338049522111 0.075063120896798 0.021943097151759 0.005103749504671
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.77 2.7182 0.702 0.3152 0.7776 0.32649007837165 0.207039703961354 0.105775392801819 0.041407898505062
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.4 1.592 0.6859 0.4006 0.7138 0.284392582522351 0.075994855960295 0.02358543400625 0.004906054353158
22 22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.0362 0.8086 0.45 0.7478 0.337568227765774 0.106015471806184 0.037869138061877 0.009175993330251
4 4 Belgium BEL h 82.1 2.1462 0.7351 0.4968 0.7802 0.360053828317222 0.137544906762502 0.052888345971581 0.01447133703105
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8015 0.7438 0.657 0.9609 0.534439373167308 0.348379982746741 0.179161091979277 0.065972696559731
16 16 France FRA e 87.49 2.6233 0.5744 0.7088 0.9311 0.577490168227595 0.311505717898534 0.120420293320914 0.055744891492631
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3961 0.4209 0.7551 0.9627 0.638426495239688 0.218967928315851 0.111385116459288 0.050054788383472
17 17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1985 0.7763 0.8719 0.9751 0.760154551018833 0.486298499318273 0.202611947303062 0.113980893157367
2 2 Argentina ARG f 90.51 2.901 0.4164 0.8968 0.9811 0.714535469764095 0.52716680771004 0.347334173214371 0.159119443366043
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.61 3.3851 0.5567 0.9651 0.9986 0.791520947042528 0.664015974723537 0.523098157176441 0.412623314983512

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140616-182949" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);