FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.35 1.1178 1.1668 0.0163 0.1274 0.016604588371759 0.003374115888177 0.000379077515679 5.0003562145e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8242 0.4467 0.9064 0.9834 0.70005740143616 0.497666903164174 0.315346348978054 0.135842927358637
3 Australia AUS b 69.13 1.6537 1.2677 0.0016 0.0205 0.001840853702574 0.000489025324768 9.580596475e-05 1.4033324664e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 82.09 2.1425 0.7344 0.5739 0.8651 0.394415947414285 0.155186974464384 0.060992494636465 0.016163009583883
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.57 2.326 0.9764 0.0388 0.5493 0.231096831145267 0.080516824265249 0.019898630251726 0.006532569563915
6 Brazil BRA a 91.6 3.3842 0.5578 0.9402 0.9966 0.7891172494028 0.662619550472999 0.510824297029988 0.406579420551041
7 Chile CHI b 86.83 2.7238 0.7007 0.3044 0.7802 0.324550008340593 0.205699224017468 0.106124413947262 0.041463610980532
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.15 2.2139 1.0064 0.2218 0.7863 0.396326295245362 0.125977669352366 0.044838037181909 0.010021918552254
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.12 1.356 0.967 0.0026 0.01 0.00205962938689 0.000659185908352 0.000148951159165 2.237695532e-05
10 Colombia COL c 87.63 2.3896 0.4174 0.7534 0.9638 0.639280676149758 0.221804556951776 0.110949772953428 0.049645793278766
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.45 1.5906 0.6828 0.412 0.7285 0.28952924981039 0.077347100658573 0.024561576193415 0.005017282576635
12 Croatia CRO a 76.38 1.8123 0.9164 0.0129 0.1919 0.052810616885892 0.022409658780284 0.006935073483836 0.001179547610206
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.85 1.9826 0.7945 0.0372 0.2058 0.06757049591095 0.029421538059205 0.010748972808537 0.002458194644731
14 England ENG d 82.21 2.1664 0.7412 0.0868 0.3191 0.146206038050248 0.039732907904367 0.015494637220394 0.004859736354435
15 Spain ESP b 86.77 2.6136 0.6381 0.029 0.2431 0.070106759233314 0.04159339759661 0.020438714207465 0.008918932794534
16 France FRA e 86.93 2.5422 0.5791 0.6873 0.9201 0.560366241918298 0.276794817585891 0.105748765783837 0.046717945947742
17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2869 0.6908 0.8805 0.9857 0.792380659738469 0.54737356489035 0.251192233010743 0.152476096986417
18 Ghana GHA g 76.4 1.849 0.9419 0.0039 0.1017 0.045914120837496 0.012958485989826 0.004374758798678 0.000773003465412
19 Greece GRE c 74.21 1.2976 0.672 0.0108 0.1445 0.059092062236515 0.016392607353152 0.004553975694413 0.000703143157376
20 Honduras HON e 68.2 1.5045 1.2049 0.0059 0.071 0.01218193948144 0.003592317220615 0.000834094327638 9.51299604e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.83 1.1909 0.7921 0.0202 0.1946 0.052204121597626 0.011382746429312 0.001764124054448 0.000323032146324
22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0385 0.8083 0.4455 0.7437 0.336101644762105 0.105026716672433 0.038176387176116 0.009113868948865
23 Japan JPN c 73.13 2.073 1.3309 0.014 0.1054 0.041330524747235 0.010317017969844 0.002661962188398 0.000373321735623
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6881 1.0845 0.1364 0.3841 0.089377910288138 0.023012006607972 0.004667754235695 0.000765491367931
25 Mexico MEX a 77.57 1.5338 0.6336 0.0443 0.8015 0.229824924659129 0.100759661823318 0.032305989421552 0.005808466862036
26 Netherlands NED b 86.88 2.8083 0.7476 0.665 0.9562 0.52968995838874 0.345298954829556 0.181242012929757 0.065879873700941
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.89 1.5476 0.8186 0.0346 0.2727 0.088137017990091 0.023735930985056 0.004638745101727 0.001032887520585
28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0356 0.9034 0.0088 0.2308 0.114381869395321 0.037183086454043 0.014210434457722 0.002900062520646
29 Russia RUS h 78.86 1.6526 0.6319 0.2734 0.6234 0.210075646960767 0.071728476567797 0.020743531772713 0.004781093554071
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.0756 0.8953 0.2696 0.8031 0.288385950520156 0.114961703382982 0.037663056217283 0.008887374818098
31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.1937 0.8626 0.0557 0.2087 0.092133508998427 0.023872764384155 0.008976446137111 0.002664065012761
32 USA USA g 78.43 2.0989 0.9785 0.1068 0.6818 0.336849256993676 0.111110508044971 0.038468925160097 0.007935784603081

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140617-205249" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);