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2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140617-205249.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi_offense

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Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense ▼ spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 63.35 1.1178 1.1668 0.0163 0.1274 0.016604588371759 0.003374115888177 0.000379077515679 5.0003562145000005e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.83 1.1909 0.7921 0.0202 0.1946 0.052204121597625996 0.011382746429312002 0.001764124054448 0.00032303214632399996
19 Greece GRE c 74.21 1.2976 0.672 0.0108 0.1445 0.059092062236514996 0.016392607353152 0.004553975694413 0.000703143157376
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.12 1.3559999999999999 0.9670000000000001 0.0026 0.01 0.00205962938689 0.000659185908352 0.00014895115916499998 2.237695532e-05
20 Honduras HON e 68.2 1.5045 1.2049 0.0059 0.071 0.01218193948144 0.0035923172206149996 0.0008340943276379999 9.51299604e-05
25 Mexico MEX a 77.57 1.5338 0.6336 0.0443 0.8015 0.22982492465912902 0.10075966182331801 0.032305989421552 0.005808466862035999
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.89 1.5476 0.8186 0.0346 0.2727 0.088137017990091 0.023735930985055997 0.004638745101727001 0.001032887520585
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.45 1.5906 0.6828 0.412 0.7285 0.28952924981039 0.07734710065857299 0.024561576193415 0.005017282576635001
29 Russia RUS h 78.86 1.6526 0.6319 0.2734 0.6234 0.210075646960767 0.071728476567797 0.020743531772713004 0.004781093554071
3 Australia AUS b 69.13 1.6537 1.2677 0.0016 0.0205 0.0018408537025739998 0.000489025324768 9.580596475e-05 1.4033324664000002e-05
24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6881 1.0845 0.1364 0.3841 0.089377910288138 0.023012006607972 0.004667754235695 0.0007654913679310001
12 Croatia CRO a 76.38 1.8123 0.9164 0.0129 0.1919 0.052810616885891996 0.022409658780284003 0.006935073483835999 0.001179547610206
18 Ghana GHA g 76.4 1.849 0.9419 0.0039 0.1017 0.045914120837496 0.012958485989826 0.004374758798677999 0.0007730034654119999
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.85 1.9826 0.7945 0.0372 0.2058 0.06757049591094999 0.029421538059205003 0.010748972808536999 0.002458194644731
28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0356 0.9034 0.0088 0.2308 0.114381869395321 0.037183086454042995 0.014210434457722002 0.002900062520646
22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0385 0.8083 0.4455 0.7437 0.33610164476210497 0.10502671667243302 0.038176387176115996 0.009113868948865
23 Japan JPN c 73.13 2.073 1.3309 0.014 0.1054 0.041330524747235 0.010317017969844 0.002661962188398 0.00037332173562300004
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.0756 0.8953 0.2696 0.8031 0.288385950520156 0.11496170338298199 0.037663056217283 0.008887374818097999
32 USA USA g 78.43 2.0989 0.9785 0.1068 0.6818 0.33684925699367607 0.11111050804497098 0.038468925160097 0.007935784603081
4 Belgium BEL h 82.09 2.1425 0.7344 0.5739 0.8651 0.39441594741428493 0.155186974464384 0.06099249463646499 0.016163009583883
14 England ENG d 82.21 2.1664 0.7412 0.0868 0.3191 0.146206038050248 0.039732907904367 0.015494637220393999 0.004859736354435
31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.1937 0.8626 0.0557 0.2087 0.09213350899842698 0.023872764384154997 0.008976446137111 0.002664065012761
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.15 2.2139 1.0064 0.2218 0.7863 0.39632629524536206 0.12597766935236598 0.044838037181909 0.010021918552253999
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.57 2.326 0.9764 0.0388 0.5493 0.231096831145267 0.080516824265249 0.019898630251726 0.006532569563915
10 Colombia COL c 87.63 2.3896 0.4174 0.7534 0.9638 0.6392806761497579 0.221804556951776 0.110949772953428 0.049645793278766
16 France FRA e 86.93 2.5422 0.5791 0.6873 0.9201 0.560366241918298 0.276794817585891 0.10574876578383699 0.04671794594774201
15 Spain ESP b 86.77 2.6136 0.6381 0.029 0.2431 0.07010675923331401 0.04159339759661 0.020438714207465 0.008918932794534
7 Chile CHI b 86.83 2.7238 0.7007 0.3044 0.7802 0.324550008340593 0.205699224017468 0.106124413947262 0.04146361098053201
26 Netherlands NED b 86.88 2.8083 0.7476 0.665 0.9562 0.52968995838874 0.345298954829556 0.18124201292975697 0.06587987370094099
2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8242 0.4467 0.9064 0.9834 0.70005740143616 0.49766690316417406 0.31534634897805397 0.13584292735863698
17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2869 0.6908 0.8805 0.9857 0.7923806597384692 0.5473735648903499 0.251192233010743 0.15247609698641698
6 Brazil BRA a 91.6 3.3842 0.5578 0.9402 0.9966 0.7891172494028 0.662619550472999 0.510824297029988 0.406579420551041

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140617-205249" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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