FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

View and edit SQL

Suggested facets: group

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.31 1.1809 1.1672 0.022 0.1602 0.021836039121064 0.004556494989798 0.00058795192944 8.4562607776e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8229 0.4464 0.9036 0.9814 0.69905916099125 0.496360310955443 0.314843337637482 0.146391818264826
3 Australia AUS b 68.89 1.6481 1.2794 0.0016 0.0181 0.001777155904365 0.000482075422822 9.4971947316e-05 1.4662156985e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 81.76 2.1436 0.762 0.6445 0.8728 0.41075667339401 0.15737277251389 0.06373189664358 0.01773842439831
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.6 2.3292 0.9776 0.0409 0.5496 0.231656055852909 0.08170422023924 0.022439401227296 0.007521872398548
6 Brazil BRA a 90.87 3.17 0.531 0.915 0.9942 0.755128425981157 0.613959734564447 0.453717086087511 0.347165679111148
7 Chile CHI b 86.81 2.7213 0.703 0.3144 0.7801 0.342591336305089 0.216208035503252 0.111015820160894 0.046149221642639
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.16 2.213 1.0064 0.216 0.7926 0.399883240387794 0.129394232276953 0.045908092733331 0.011262391169966
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.21 1.3672 0.9711 0.0042 0.013 0.002648366701367 0.000881820454203 0.000202291978184 3.3637563537e-05
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3867 0.4172 0.7644 0.9627 0.637690414798281 0.237903143588513 0.118859027716508 0.055257351439378
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.5 1.5935 0.6832 0.4173 0.7306 0.291837996156418 0.080428410388593 0.025455097816465 0.005706059214858
12 Croatia CRO a 76.23 1.8127 0.9277 0.0167 0.1817 0.049645734238944 0.021020072885305 0.006430730483292 0.001210736489401
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.87 1.9878 0.7975 0.0343 0.2061 0.067729955115245 0.02988558290733 0.011103676006006 0.002781658481307
14 England ENG d 82.22 2.1666 0.742 0.0819 0.3133 0.142656719143844 0.041523310880796 0.0162243430953 0.005398161084053
15 Spain ESP b 86.76 2.6117 0.6396 0.0251 0.2445 0.076670120079587 0.045069339553746 0.02198080924233 0.01005539989451
16 France FRA e 86.92 2.5397 0.5798 0.6926 0.9223 0.562102413623707 0.277962106410764 0.113972943356 0.051947191621575
17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2839 0.6908 0.8736 0.9804 0.799560920734293 0.551425713707577 0.27460678062943 0.168605334422316
18 Ghana GHA g 76.42 1.8491 0.9418 0.0061 0.1043 0.04702181511712 0.01348522166344 0.004559140086338 0.000900117983935
19 Greece GRE c 74.2 1.2966 0.6725 0.0084 0.1418 0.057981537376828 0.016207763617774 0.004485836352491 0.000767744246966
20 Honduras HON e 68.16 1.508 1.2109 0.0058 0.0705 0.011991626701598 0.003484977887697 0.00082044992429 0.000103359460464
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1905 0.7931 0.0225 0.1948 0.05221340034586 0.011567378155134 0.002003526737633 0.000376889640845
22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0408 0.8109 0.4436 0.746 0.337348888561954 0.107803323594949 0.03913504676771 0.010215875883458
23 Japan JPN c 73.07 2.0699 1.334 0.0112 0.1029 0.040339777405233 0.010285133201797 0.002658382823376 0.000410391544691
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6875 1.0839 0.1291 0.4093 0.092046381006433 0.024183876765042 0.005001895709943 0.000906151039518
25 Mexico MEX a 78.6 1.4824 0.5291 0.0641 0.8111 0.243648950328286 0.109803866640856 0.036537542405309 0.007671792833703
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8048 0.7484 0.6589 0.9573 0.527889910461208 0.34327038860332 0.179869136359317 0.070854215389433
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.94 1.5518 0.8196 0.033 0.2742 0.088432376613088 0.023923282182938 0.005056597100175 0.001190446628508
28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0416 0.9083 0.0077 0.2277 0.112592879665897 0.036787595294979 0.014110711915353 0.003184934063351
29 Russia RUS h 78.28 1.6108 0.6428 0.2044 0.5577 0.173729342734162 0.05891125065213 0.016605883896675 0.004116318676213
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.074 0.8956 0.2673 0.8011 0.286815010756369 0.11474987188655 0.03869317995697 0.009909580191964
31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.193 0.8631 0.0572 0.2101 0.092261426169615 0.025759348822668 0.009637913381283 0.00301916516604
32 USA USA g 78.49 2.1028 0.9782 0.1126 0.6876 0.342455948226965 0.113639343788026 0.039650497892776 0.00904885528978

Advanced export

JSON shape: default, array, newline-delimited

CSV options:

CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-100110" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);