home / fivethirtyeight

2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140618-100110.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi_defense

View and edit SQL

Suggested facets: group

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense ▼ win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3867 0.4172 0.7644 0.9627 0.6376904147982809 0.237903143588513 0.11885902771650801 0.055257351439378
2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8229 0.4464 0.9036 0.9814 0.69905916099125 0.49636031095544303 0.314843337637482 0.146391818264826
25 Mexico MEX a 78.6 1.4824 0.5291 0.0641 0.8111 0.24364895032828598 0.10980386664085601 0.036537542405308994 0.007671792833703
6 Brazil BRA a 90.87 3.17 0.531 0.915 0.9942 0.7551284259811569 0.6139597345644471 0.45371708608751093 0.34716567911114804
16 France FRA e 86.92 2.5397 0.5798 0.6926 0.9223 0.5621024136237069 0.27796210641076396 0.113972943356 0.05194719162157499
15 Spain ESP b 86.76 2.6117 0.6396 0.0251 0.2445 0.07667012007958701 0.04506933955374599 0.021980809242330004 0.01005539989451
29 Russia RUS h 78.28 1.6108 0.6428 0.2044 0.5577 0.173729342734162 0.058911250652129994 0.016605883896674997 0.0041163186762129995
19 Greece GRE c 74.2 1.2966 0.6725 0.0084 0.1418 0.057981537376828 0.016207763617774 0.004485836352491001 0.0007677442469660001
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.5 1.5935 0.6832 0.4173 0.7306 0.29183799615641803 0.080428410388593 0.025455097816465 0.005706059214858001
17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2839 0.6908 0.8736 0.9804 0.799560920734293 0.551425713707577 0.27460678062943 0.16860533442231598
7 Chile CHI b 86.81 2.7213 0.703 0.3144 0.7801 0.342591336305089 0.216208035503252 0.11101582016089401 0.046149221642639
14 England ENG d 82.22 2.1666 0.742 0.0819 0.3133 0.14265671914384398 0.041523310880796 0.0162243430953 0.005398161084052999
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8048 0.7484 0.6589 0.9573 0.5278899104612079 0.34327038860332 0.179869136359317 0.070854215389433
4 Belgium BEL h 81.76 2.1436 0.762 0.6445 0.8728 0.41075667339401 0.15737277251389 0.06373189664358 0.017738424398310002
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1905 0.7931 0.0225 0.1948 0.05221340034586 0.011567378155133999 0.002003526737633 0.00037688964084500005
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.87 1.9878 0.7975 0.0343 0.2061 0.067729955115245 0.029885582907330004 0.011103676006006 0.002781658481307
22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0408 0.8109 0.4436 0.746 0.337348888561954 0.107803323594949 0.03913504676771 0.010215875883458
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.94 1.5518 0.8196 0.033 0.2742 0.088432376613088 0.023923282182938 0.005056597100175001 0.0011904466285080002
31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.193 0.8631 0.0572 0.2101 0.092261426169615 0.025759348822667998 0.009637913381283001 0.00301916516604
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.074 0.8956 0.2673 0.8011 0.28681501075636895 0.11474987188655 0.03869317995697 0.009909580191964001
28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0416 0.9083 0.0077 0.2277 0.11259287966589698 0.036787595294979 0.014110711915353001 0.003184934063351
12 Croatia CRO a 76.23 1.8127 0.9277 0.0167 0.1817 0.049645734238944 0.021020072885305 0.006430730483292 0.001210736489401
18 Ghana GHA g 76.42 1.8491 0.9418 0.0061 0.1043 0.04702181511712001 0.01348522166344 0.004559140086338 0.000900117983935
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.21 1.3672 0.9711 0.0042 0.013 0.002648366701367 0.0008818204542030001 0.000202291978184 3.3637563537e-05
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.6 2.3292 0.9776 0.0409 0.5496 0.23165605585290902 0.08170422023924001 0.022439401227296 0.007521872398548001
32 USA USA g 78.49 2.1028 0.9782 0.1126 0.6876 0.342455948226965 0.113639343788026 0.039650497892776 0.00904885528978
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.16 2.213 1.0064 0.216 0.7926 0.399883240387794 0.12939423227695301 0.045908092733331 0.011262391169966001
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6875 1.0839 0.1291 0.4093 0.09204638100643302 0.024183876765042002 0.005001895709943 0.000906151039518
1 Algeria ALG h 64.31 1.1809 1.1672 0.022 0.1602 0.021836039121064 0.004556494989798 0.00058795192944 8.4562607776e-05
20 Honduras HON e 68.16 1.508 1.2109 0.0058 0.0705 0.011991626701598 0.003484977887697 0.0008204499242899999 0.000103359460464
3 Australia AUS b 68.89 1.6481 1.2794 0.0016 0.0181 0.001777155904365 0.00048207542282199996 9.4971947316e-05 1.4662156985e-05
23 Japan JPN c 73.07 2.0699 1.334 0.0112 0.1029 0.040339777405233 0.010285133201797 0.002658382823376 0.000410391544691

Advanced export

JSON shape: default, array, newline-delimited

CSV options:

CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-100110" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
Powered by Datasette · Query took 27.148ms · Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub