fivethirtyeight: world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-235413: 32 rows sorted by spi

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header	Definition
`spi`	Soccer Power Index
`spi_offense`	Soccer Power Index offensive rating
`spi_defense`	Soccer Power Index defensive rating
`win_group`	Change of coming in first place in the group stage
`sixteen`	Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
`quarter`	Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
`semi`	Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
`cup`	Chance of making it to the final game
`win`	Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by spi

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Link	rowid	country	country_id	group	spi ▼	spi_offense	spi_defense	win_group	sixteen	quarter	semi	cup	win
1	1	Algeria	ALG	h	64.31	1.1809	1.1672	0.0239	0.155	0.022336338719737	0.004654214979158	0.000613133904104	8.6343011673e-05
20	20	Honduras	HON	e	68.16	1.508	1.2109	0.0065	0.0686	0.011949756253343	0.003382018613875	0.000790452008277	0.000100688415307
3	3	Australia	AUS	b	68.89	1.6481	1.2794	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	9	Cameroon	CMR	a	70.21	1.3672	0.9711	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
21	21	Iran	IRN	f	70.82	1.1905	0.7931	0.0208	0.2014	0.05431394282577	0.01200715369636	0.00204893807947	0.000390367610714
24	24	South Korea	KOR	h	72.44	1.6875	1.0839	0.127	0.4128	0.092683354826161	0.024218199173927	0.004978579999239	0.00090668363387
23	23	Japan	JPN	c	73.07	2.0699	1.334	0.0112	0.1048	0.040952036237262	0.010326381476912	0.002674475576421	0.000413291409353
19	19	Greece	GRE	c	74.2	1.2966	0.6725	0.0102	0.1527	0.061945722316614	0.017067223333607	0.004770153063585	0.000818943836841
27	27	Nigeria	NGA	f	74.94	1.5518	0.8196	0.0397	0.2697	0.088430600084918	0.024372479179679	0.005245237858602	0.001211890203905
12	12	Croatia	CRO	a	76.23	1.8127	0.9277	0.0334	0.3262	0.088862847891784	0.037567044542918	0.011526673607982	0.002188157734206
18	18	Ghana	GHA	g	76.42	1.8491	0.9418	0.0055	0.1056	0.04796208724164	0.013845163437328	0.004656233057717	0.000921593298178
11	11	Costa Rica	CRC	d	77.5	1.5935	0.6832	0.3982	0.708	0.283440570123034	0.077689324721076	0.024638455618436	0.005531982481794
29	29	Russia	RUS	h	78.28	1.6108	0.6428	0.2059	0.5643	0.175947330533807	0.05984739426304	0.016871304049961	0.004179814382261
32	32	USA	USA	g	78.49	2.1028	0.9782	0.1079	0.68	0.339142242483671	0.112425488906783	0.039235253037051	0.00896454372874
25	25	Mexico	MEX	a	78.6	1.4824	0.5291	0.0571	0.6812	0.203770790545673	0.091696276821205	0.030483341042914	0.0064209428777
28	28	Portugal	POR	g	78.86	2.0416	0.9083	0.0082	0.2307	0.115020991582054	0.037465219450431	0.014290369065586	0.003232095604805
8	8	Ivory Coast	CIV	c	79.16	2.213	1.0064	0.2235	0.7852	0.39589574080976	0.12727516248779	0.045163859914661	0.011130387417184
30	30	Switzerland	SUI	e	79.35	2.074	0.8956	0.2754	0.8093	0.29295988010622	0.116869231559563	0.039166417000033	0.010070607870327
13	13	Ecuador	ECU	e	79.87	1.9878	0.7975	0.0363	0.2014	0.066820548556228	0.029250587412828	0.01091644804463	0.002732374901819
22	22	Italy	ITA	d	80.19	2.0408	0.8109	0.4579	0.753	0.342121567674853	0.109780402528274	0.039801031752257	0.01039458348393
5	5	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BIH	f	80.6	2.3292	0.9776	0.0367	0.5475	0.231166915357837	0.080425245239378	0.022033327162713	0.007431728908387
31	31	Uruguay	URU	d	80.88	2.193	0.8631	0.0578	0.2116	0.092592750483268	0.025915997261317	0.009715500922655	0.00305182799612
4	4	Belgium	BEL	h	81.76	2.1436	0.762	0.6432	0.8679	0.406002978172751	0.155733423737741	0.063068000233443	0.017587181652971
14	14	England	ENG	d	82.22	2.1666	0.742	0.0861	0.3274	0.149878696057978	0.04351122416885	0.017041881611478	0.005663593372721
15	15	Spain	ESP	b	86.76	2.6117	0.6396	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	7	Chile	CHI	b	86.81	2.7213	0.703	0.3673	1.0	0.428325492916169	0.268091261907369	0.137291342308182	0.057664009833832
26	26	Netherlands	NED	b	86.87	2.8048	0.7484	0.6327	1.0	0.529571216902452	0.343486718003091	0.179550828727972	0.071560772866346
16	16	France	FRA	e	86.92	2.5397	0.5798	0.6818	0.9207	0.557407346696632	0.276333102350994	0.113748630767142	0.051761757296976
10	10	Colombia	COL	c	87.62	2.3867	0.4172	0.7551	0.9573	0.633172916297202	0.237541053905014	0.118410847324031	0.054972701907357
2	2	Argentina	ARG	f	89.87	2.8229	0.4464	0.9028	0.9814	0.696951010119079	0.495542650114562	0.313957236336741	0.14617332952507
17	17	Germany	GER	g	90.09	3.2839	0.6908	0.8784	0.9837	0.800904676440121	0.55362842788433	0.27632908865059	0.169525902077067
6	6	Brazil	BRA	a	90.87	3.17	0.531	0.9095	0.9926	0.74946965174393	0.610051928842564	0.450982959274125	0.344911902660546

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-235413" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);

2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140618-235413.csv

32 rows sorted by spi

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