FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by group

View and edit SQL

Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group ▼ spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
6 Brazil BRA a 90.87 3.17 0.531 0.9095 0.9926 0.74946965174393 0.610051928842564 0.450982959274125 0.344911902660546
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.21 1.3672 0.9711 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Croatia CRO a 76.23 1.8127 0.9277 0.0334 0.3262 0.088862847891784 0.037567044542918 0.011526673607982 0.002188157734206
25 Mexico MEX a 78.6 1.4824 0.5291 0.0571 0.6812 0.203770790545673 0.091696276821205 0.030483341042914 0.0064209428777
3 Australia AUS b 68.89 1.6481 1.2794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Chile CHI b 86.81 2.7213 0.703 0.3673 1.0 0.428325492916169 0.268091261907369 0.137291342308182 0.057664009833832
15 Spain ESP b 86.76 2.6117 0.6396 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8048 0.7484 0.6327 1.0 0.529571216902452 0.343486718003091 0.179550828727972 0.071560772866346
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.16 2.213 1.0064 0.2235 0.7852 0.39589574080976 0.12727516248779 0.045163859914661 0.011130387417184
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3867 0.4172 0.7551 0.9573 0.633172916297202 0.237541053905014 0.118410847324031 0.054972701907357
19 Greece GRE c 74.2 1.2966 0.6725 0.0102 0.1527 0.061945722316614 0.017067223333607 0.004770153063585 0.000818943836841
23 Japan JPN c 73.07 2.0699 1.334 0.0112 0.1048 0.040952036237262 0.010326381476912 0.002674475576421 0.000413291409353
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.5 1.5935 0.6832 0.3982 0.708 0.283440570123034 0.077689324721076 0.024638455618436 0.005531982481794
14 England ENG d 82.22 2.1666 0.742 0.0861 0.3274 0.149878696057978 0.04351122416885 0.017041881611478 0.005663593372721
22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0408 0.8109 0.4579 0.753 0.342121567674853 0.109780402528274 0.039801031752257 0.01039458348393
31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.193 0.8631 0.0578 0.2116 0.092592750483268 0.025915997261317 0.009715500922655 0.00305182799612
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.87 1.9878 0.7975 0.0363 0.2014 0.066820548556228 0.029250587412828 0.01091644804463 0.002732374901819
16 France FRA e 86.92 2.5397 0.5798 0.6818 0.9207 0.557407346696632 0.276333102350994 0.113748630767142 0.051761757296976
20 Honduras HON e 68.16 1.508 1.2109 0.0065 0.0686 0.011949756253343 0.003382018613875 0.000790452008277 0.000100688415307
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.074 0.8956 0.2754 0.8093 0.29295988010622 0.116869231559563 0.039166417000033 0.010070607870327
2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8229 0.4464 0.9028 0.9814 0.696951010119079 0.495542650114562 0.313957236336741 0.14617332952507
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.6 2.3292 0.9776 0.0367 0.5475 0.231166915357837 0.080425245239378 0.022033327162713 0.007431728908387
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1905 0.7931 0.0208 0.2014 0.05431394282577 0.01200715369636 0.00204893807947 0.000390367610714
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.94 1.5518 0.8196 0.0397 0.2697 0.088430600084918 0.024372479179679 0.005245237858602 0.001211890203905
17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2839 0.6908 0.8784 0.9837 0.800904676440121 0.55362842788433 0.27632908865059 0.169525902077067
18 Ghana GHA g 76.42 1.8491 0.9418 0.0055 0.1056 0.04796208724164 0.013845163437328 0.004656233057717 0.000921593298178
28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0416 0.9083 0.0082 0.2307 0.115020991582054 0.037465219450431 0.014290369065586 0.003232095604805
32 USA USA g 78.49 2.1028 0.9782 0.1079 0.68 0.339142242483671 0.112425488906783 0.039235253037051 0.00896454372874
1 Algeria ALG h 64.31 1.1809 1.1672 0.0239 0.155 0.022336338719737 0.004654214979158 0.000613133904104 8.6343011673e-05
4 Belgium BEL h 81.76 2.1436 0.762 0.6432 0.8679 0.406002978172751 0.155733423737741 0.063068000233443 0.017587181652971
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6875 1.0839 0.127 0.4128 0.092683354826161 0.024218199173927 0.004978579999239 0.00090668363387
29 Russia RUS h 78.28 1.6108 0.6428 0.2059 0.5643 0.175947330533807 0.05984739426304 0.016871304049961 0.004179814382261

Advanced export

JSON shape: default, array, newline-delimited

CSV options:

CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-235413" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);