FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by spi_defense

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense ▼ win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3867 0.4172 0.7551 0.9573 0.633172916297202 0.237541053905014 0.118410847324031 0.054972701907357
2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8229 0.4464 0.9028 0.9814 0.696951010119079 0.495542650114562 0.313957236336741 0.14617332952507
25 Mexico MEX a 78.6 1.4824 0.5291 0.0571 0.6812 0.203770790545673 0.091696276821205 0.030483341042914 0.0064209428777
6 Brazil BRA a 90.87 3.17 0.531 0.9095 0.9926 0.74946965174393 0.610051928842564 0.450982959274125 0.344911902660546
16 France FRA e 86.92 2.5397 0.5798 0.6818 0.9207 0.557407346696632 0.276333102350994 0.113748630767142 0.051761757296976
15 Spain ESP b 86.76 2.6117 0.6396 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
29 Russia RUS h 78.28 1.6108 0.6428 0.2059 0.5643 0.175947330533807 0.05984739426304 0.016871304049961 0.004179814382261
19 Greece GRE c 74.2 1.2966 0.6725 0.0102 0.1527 0.061945722316614 0.017067223333607 0.004770153063585 0.000818943836841
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.5 1.5935 0.6832 0.3982 0.708 0.283440570123034 0.077689324721076 0.024638455618436 0.005531982481794
17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2839 0.6908 0.8784 0.9837 0.800904676440121 0.55362842788433 0.27632908865059 0.169525902077067
7 Chile CHI b 86.81 2.7213 0.703 0.3673 1.0 0.428325492916169 0.268091261907369 0.137291342308182 0.057664009833832
14 England ENG d 82.22 2.1666 0.742 0.0861 0.3274 0.149878696057978 0.04351122416885 0.017041881611478 0.005663593372721
26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8048 0.7484 0.6327 1.0 0.529571216902452 0.343486718003091 0.179550828727972 0.071560772866346
4 Belgium BEL h 81.76 2.1436 0.762 0.6432 0.8679 0.406002978172751 0.155733423737741 0.063068000233443 0.017587181652971
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1905 0.7931 0.0208 0.2014 0.05431394282577 0.01200715369636 0.00204893807947 0.000390367610714
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.87 1.9878 0.7975 0.0363 0.2014 0.066820548556228 0.029250587412828 0.01091644804463 0.002732374901819
22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0408 0.8109 0.4579 0.753 0.342121567674853 0.109780402528274 0.039801031752257 0.01039458348393
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.94 1.5518 0.8196 0.0397 0.2697 0.088430600084918 0.024372479179679 0.005245237858602 0.001211890203905
31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.193 0.8631 0.0578 0.2116 0.092592750483268 0.025915997261317 0.009715500922655 0.00305182799612
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.074 0.8956 0.2754 0.8093 0.29295988010622 0.116869231559563 0.039166417000033 0.010070607870327
28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0416 0.9083 0.0082 0.2307 0.115020991582054 0.037465219450431 0.014290369065586 0.003232095604805
12 Croatia CRO a 76.23 1.8127 0.9277 0.0334 0.3262 0.088862847891784 0.037567044542918 0.011526673607982 0.002188157734206
18 Ghana GHA g 76.42 1.8491 0.9418 0.0055 0.1056 0.04796208724164 0.013845163437328 0.004656233057717 0.000921593298178
9 Cameroon CMR a 70.21 1.3672 0.9711 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.6 2.3292 0.9776 0.0367 0.5475 0.231166915357837 0.080425245239378 0.022033327162713 0.007431728908387
32 USA USA g 78.49 2.1028 0.9782 0.1079 0.68 0.339142242483671 0.112425488906783 0.039235253037051 0.00896454372874
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.16 2.213 1.0064 0.2235 0.7852 0.39589574080976 0.12727516248779 0.045163859914661 0.011130387417184
24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6875 1.0839 0.127 0.4128 0.092683354826161 0.024218199173927 0.004978579999239 0.00090668363387
1 Algeria ALG h 64.31 1.1809 1.1672 0.0239 0.155 0.022336338719737 0.004654214979158 0.000613133904104 8.6343011673e-05
20 Honduras HON e 68.16 1.508 1.2109 0.0065 0.0686 0.011949756253343 0.003382018613875 0.000790452008277 0.000100688415307
3 Australia AUS b 68.89 1.6481 1.2794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 Japan JPN c 73.07 2.0699 1.334 0.0112 0.1048 0.040952036237262 0.010326381476912 0.002674475576421 0.000413291409353

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-235413" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);