2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140618-235413.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by win_group

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group ▼ sixteen quarter semi cup win
3 3 Australia AUS b 68.89 1.6481 1.2794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 70.21 1.3672 0.9711 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.76 2.6117 0.6396 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 18 Ghana GHA g 76.42 1.8491 0.9418 0.0055 0.1056 0.04796208724164 0.013845163437328 0.004656233057717 0.000921593298178
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.16 1.508 1.2109 0.0065 0.0686 0.011949756253343 0.003382018613875 0.000790452008277 0.000100688415307
28 28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0416 0.9083 0.0082 0.2307 0.115020991582054 0.037465219450431 0.014290369065586 0.003232095604805
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.2 1.2966 0.6725 0.0102 0.1527 0.061945722316614 0.017067223333607 0.004770153063585 0.000818943836841
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.07 2.0699 1.334 0.0112 0.1048 0.040952036237262 0.010326381476912 0.002674475576421 0.000413291409353
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1905 0.7931 0.0208 0.2014 0.05431394282577 0.01200715369636 0.00204893807947 0.000390367610714
1 1 Algeria ALG h 64.31 1.1809 1.1672 0.0239 0.155 0.022336338719737 0.004654214979158 0.000613133904104 8.6343011673e-05
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.23 1.8127 0.9277 0.0334 0.3262 0.088862847891784 0.037567044542918 0.011526673607982 0.002188157734206
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 79.87 1.9878 0.7975 0.0363 0.2014 0.066820548556228 0.029250587412828 0.01091644804463 0.002732374901819
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.6 2.3292 0.9776 0.0367 0.5475 0.231166915357837 0.080425245239378 0.022033327162713 0.007431728908387
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 74.94 1.5518 0.8196 0.0397 0.2697 0.088430600084918 0.024372479179679 0.005245237858602 0.001211890203905
25 25 Mexico MEX a 78.6 1.4824 0.5291 0.0571 0.6812 0.203770790545673 0.091696276821205 0.030483341042914 0.0064209428777
31 31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.193 0.8631 0.0578 0.2116 0.092592750483268 0.025915997261317 0.009715500922655 0.00305182799612
14 14 England ENG d 82.22 2.1666 0.742 0.0861 0.3274 0.149878696057978 0.04351122416885 0.017041881611478 0.005663593372721
32 32 USA USA g 78.49 2.1028 0.9782 0.1079 0.68 0.339142242483671 0.112425488906783 0.039235253037051 0.00896454372874
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6875 1.0839 0.127 0.4128 0.092683354826161 0.024218199173927 0.004978579999239 0.00090668363387
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.28 1.6108 0.6428 0.2059 0.5643 0.175947330533807 0.05984739426304 0.016871304049961 0.004179814382261
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.16 2.213 1.0064 0.2235 0.7852 0.39589574080976 0.12727516248779 0.045163859914661 0.011130387417184
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.074 0.8956 0.2754 0.8093 0.29295988010622 0.116869231559563 0.039166417000033 0.010070607870327
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.81 2.7213 0.703 0.3673 1.0 0.428325492916169 0.268091261907369 0.137291342308182 0.057664009833832
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.5 1.5935 0.6832 0.3982 0.708 0.283440570123034 0.077689324721076 0.024638455618436 0.005531982481794
22 22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0408 0.8109 0.4579 0.753 0.342121567674853 0.109780402528274 0.039801031752257 0.01039458348393
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8048 0.7484 0.6327 1.0 0.529571216902452 0.343486718003091 0.179550828727972 0.071560772866346
4 4 Belgium BEL h 81.76 2.1436 0.762 0.6432 0.8679 0.406002978172751 0.155733423737741 0.063068000233443 0.017587181652971
16 16 France FRA e 86.92 2.5397 0.5798 0.6818 0.9207 0.557407346696632 0.276333102350994 0.113748630767142 0.051761757296976
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3867 0.4172 0.7551 0.9573 0.633172916297202 0.237541053905014 0.118410847324031 0.054972701907357
17 17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2839 0.6908 0.8784 0.9837 0.800904676440121 0.55362842788433 0.27632908865059 0.169525902077067
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8229 0.4464 0.9028 0.9814 0.696951010119079 0.495542650114562 0.313957236336741 0.14617332952507
6 6 Brazil BRA a 90.87 3.17 0.531 0.9095 0.9926 0.74946965174393 0.610051928842564 0.450982959274125 0.344911902660546

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-235413" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);