2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140618-235413.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by rowid descending

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▲ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
32 32 USA USA g 78.49 2.1028 0.9782 0.1079 0.68 0.339142242483671 0.112425488906783 0.039235253037051 0.00896454372874
31 31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.193 0.8631 0.0578 0.2116 0.092592750483268 0.025915997261317 0.009715500922655 0.00305182799612
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.074 0.8956 0.2754 0.8093 0.29295988010622 0.116869231559563 0.039166417000033 0.010070607870327
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.28 1.6108 0.6428 0.2059 0.5643 0.175947330533807 0.05984739426304 0.016871304049961 0.004179814382261
28 28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0416 0.9083 0.0082 0.2307 0.115020991582054 0.037465219450431 0.014290369065586 0.003232095604805
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 74.94 1.5518 0.8196 0.0397 0.2697 0.088430600084918 0.024372479179679 0.005245237858602 0.001211890203905
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8048 0.7484 0.6327 1.0 0.529571216902452 0.343486718003091 0.179550828727972 0.071560772866346
25 25 Mexico MEX a 78.6 1.4824 0.5291 0.0571 0.6812 0.203770790545673 0.091696276821205 0.030483341042914 0.0064209428777
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6875 1.0839 0.127 0.4128 0.092683354826161 0.024218199173927 0.004978579999239 0.00090668363387
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.07 2.0699 1.334 0.0112 0.1048 0.040952036237262 0.010326381476912 0.002674475576421 0.000413291409353
22 22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0408 0.8109 0.4579 0.753 0.342121567674853 0.109780402528274 0.039801031752257 0.01039458348393
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1905 0.7931 0.0208 0.2014 0.05431394282577 0.01200715369636 0.00204893807947 0.000390367610714
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.16 1.508 1.2109 0.0065 0.0686 0.011949756253343 0.003382018613875 0.000790452008277 0.000100688415307
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.2 1.2966 0.6725 0.0102 0.1527 0.061945722316614 0.017067223333607 0.004770153063585 0.000818943836841
18 18 Ghana GHA g 76.42 1.8491 0.9418 0.0055 0.1056 0.04796208724164 0.013845163437328 0.004656233057717 0.000921593298178
17 17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2839 0.6908 0.8784 0.9837 0.800904676440121 0.55362842788433 0.27632908865059 0.169525902077067
16 16 France FRA e 86.92 2.5397 0.5798 0.6818 0.9207 0.557407346696632 0.276333102350994 0.113748630767142 0.051761757296976
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.76 2.6117 0.6396 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 14 England ENG d 82.22 2.1666 0.742 0.0861 0.3274 0.149878696057978 0.04351122416885 0.017041881611478 0.005663593372721
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 79.87 1.9878 0.7975 0.0363 0.2014 0.066820548556228 0.029250587412828 0.01091644804463 0.002732374901819
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.23 1.8127 0.9277 0.0334 0.3262 0.088862847891784 0.037567044542918 0.011526673607982 0.002188157734206
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.5 1.5935 0.6832 0.3982 0.708 0.283440570123034 0.077689324721076 0.024638455618436 0.005531982481794
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3867 0.4172 0.7551 0.9573 0.633172916297202 0.237541053905014 0.118410847324031 0.054972701907357
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 70.21 1.3672 0.9711 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.16 2.213 1.0064 0.2235 0.7852 0.39589574080976 0.12727516248779 0.045163859914661 0.011130387417184
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.81 2.7213 0.703 0.3673 1.0 0.428325492916169 0.268091261907369 0.137291342308182 0.057664009833832
6 6 Brazil BRA a 90.87 3.17 0.531 0.9095 0.9926 0.74946965174393 0.610051928842564 0.450982959274125 0.344911902660546
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.6 2.3292 0.9776 0.0367 0.5475 0.231166915357837 0.080425245239378 0.022033327162713 0.007431728908387
4 4 Belgium BEL h 81.76 2.1436 0.762 0.6432 0.8679 0.406002978172751 0.155733423737741 0.063068000233443 0.017587181652971
3 3 Australia AUS b 68.89 1.6481 1.2794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8229 0.4464 0.9028 0.9814 0.696951010119079 0.495542650114562 0.313957236336741 0.14617332952507
1 1 Algeria ALG h 64.31 1.1809 1.1672 0.0239 0.155 0.022336338719737 0.004654214979158 0.000613133904104 8.6343011673e-05

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-235413" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);