FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.3 1.1801 1.1672 0.0213 0.1551 0.02289718137931 0.004812517552247 0.000606574822335 8.7761049676e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 89.89 2.8248 0.4457 0.9077 0.982 0.698066472765686 0.498308410009224 0.31573291643178 0.147045175096821
3 Australia AUS b 70.15 1.7855 1.3089 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.88 2.1496 0.7576 0.645 0.8752 0.415061966177896 0.160017551682679 0.064443965649051 0.018203871101105
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.62 2.3309 0.9766 0.0373 0.5482 0.230768091115978 0.084929121074034 0.022536861006335 0.007691923723247
6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1909 0.516 0.9184 0.9942 0.750983637426015 0.614370149755272 0.46667625734253 0.360343624255207
7 Chile CHI b 87.82 2.7509 0.6228 0.4083 1.0 0.450714468720522 0.294191877382459 0.159837742060596 0.070837190600748
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.13 2.2127 1.0084 0.2217 0.7835 0.395110534128104 0.12519647849178 0.044669921029462 0.011038775455406
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4901 1.1177 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 87.7 2.3934 0.4145 0.7565 0.9624 0.638882841166306 0.236075172228686 0.12096031147577 0.056475224299102
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5925 0.6815 0.4145 0.7242 0.289290823284294 0.078544230556949 0.025116179727055 0.005668932783028
12 Croatia CRO a 79.64 2.0406 0.8511 0.0379 0.3965 0.128803344625078 0.062118727589576 0.022327738830619 0.00516369726724
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.95 1.9863 0.7908 0.0349 0.2053 0.066810142787674 0.03001093910261 0.011067811450984 0.002809467818958
14 England ENG d 82.23 2.1691 0.7432 0.0854 0.3255 0.148346486245995 0.042363226092619 0.016869159902312 0.005641615455972
15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.478 0.6526 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 86.9 2.5366 0.5805 0.6872 0.9207 0.560293289531529 0.286614203459529 0.115553363617317 0.052639296101021
17 Germany GER g 89.42 3.2403 0.7437 0.8636 0.9786 0.78062604724335 0.523398343368317 0.246416830297313 0.145389856339719
18 Ghana GHA g 76.29 1.8443 0.9469 0.0075 0.1082 0.048587109114401 0.013978018845738 0.004595723101332 0.000912905813532
19 Greece GRE c 74.26 1.2973 0.6702 0.0099 0.1466 0.059911277294605 0.016677296395938 0.004638655208063 0.000800020753152
20 Honduras HON e 68.18 1.5087 1.2107 0.0043 0.0666 0.011137790868099 0.003273669846451 0.000761253829345 9.7442363131e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1909 0.7937 0.0218 0.2058 0.054616293108938 0.012678688727279 0.002090088932781 0.000402124669716
22 Italy ITA d 80.15 2.0347 0.8101 0.4454 0.7418 0.335477165273908 0.105893280261314 0.038707828409129 0.010116356730368
23 Japan JPN c 73.09 2.068 1.3316 0.0119 0.1075 0.04205620101042 0.010617361648174 0.002745452462651 0.000428775512745
24 South Korea KOR h 72.49 1.6878 1.0807 0.1343 0.411 0.097211057007447 0.025480515475723 0.005150478983421 0.000947856737684
25 Mexico MEX a 78.41 1.4717 0.5341 0.0437 0.6093 0.180352364487865 0.080800800614557 0.026710405349487 0.005590470898629
26 Netherlands NED b 86.15 2.7997 0.8136 0.5917 1.0 0.489146184740499 0.308254276369514 0.15702078142341 0.060433922502395
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.86 1.548 0.822 0.0332 0.264 0.08542378187149 0.024248043480689 0.005003363733269 0.001170790258106
28 Portugal POR g 79.1 2.0823 0.9194 0.0107 0.23 0.114433375361797 0.03763816765555 0.014455605538406 0.003357138244992
29 Russia RUS h 78.33 1.6132 0.6413 0.1994 0.5587 0.180656394601349 0.061665675028453 0.016923101805247 0.004255632441262
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.54 2.0858 0.8897 0.2736 0.8074 0.292884137950583 0.120339613759888 0.040063792553877 0.010492229342433
31 Uruguay URU d 80.9 2.1952 0.8632 0.0547 0.2085 0.090924671596358 0.024897122613203 0.009504629888786 0.003002578441764
32 USA USA g 78.46 2.1014 0.9798 0.1182 0.6832 0.340526869114531 0.112606520931546 0.038813205137332 0.008955343942841

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140619-091907" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);