FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by spi_offense

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense ▼ spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.3 1.1801 1.1672 0.0213 0.1551 0.02289718137931 0.004812517552247 0.000606574822335 8.7761049676e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1909 0.7937 0.0218 0.2058 0.054616293108938 0.012678688727279 0.002090088932781 0.000402124669716
19 Greece GRE c 74.26 1.2973 0.6702 0.0099 0.1466 0.059911277294605 0.016677296395938 0.004638655208063 0.000800020753152
25 Mexico MEX a 78.41 1.4717 0.5341 0.0437 0.6093 0.180352364487865 0.080800800614557 0.026710405349487 0.005590470898629
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4901 1.1177 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 Honduras HON e 68.18 1.5087 1.2107 0.0043 0.0666 0.011137790868099 0.003273669846451 0.000761253829345 9.7442363131e-05
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.86 1.548 0.822 0.0332 0.264 0.08542378187149 0.024248043480689 0.005003363733269 0.001170790258106
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5925 0.6815 0.4145 0.7242 0.289290823284294 0.078544230556949 0.025116179727055 0.005668932783028
29 Russia RUS h 78.33 1.6132 0.6413 0.1994 0.5587 0.180656394601349 0.061665675028453 0.016923101805247 0.004255632441262
24 South Korea KOR h 72.49 1.6878 1.0807 0.1343 0.411 0.097211057007447 0.025480515475723 0.005150478983421 0.000947856737684
3 Australia AUS b 70.15 1.7855 1.3089 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 Ghana GHA g 76.29 1.8443 0.9469 0.0075 0.1082 0.048587109114401 0.013978018845738 0.004595723101332 0.000912905813532
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.95 1.9863 0.7908 0.0349 0.2053 0.066810142787674 0.03001093910261 0.011067811450984 0.002809467818958
22 Italy ITA d 80.15 2.0347 0.8101 0.4454 0.7418 0.335477165273908 0.105893280261314 0.038707828409129 0.010116356730368
12 Croatia CRO a 79.64 2.0406 0.8511 0.0379 0.3965 0.128803344625078 0.062118727589576 0.022327738830619 0.00516369726724
23 Japan JPN c 73.09 2.068 1.3316 0.0119 0.1075 0.04205620101042 0.010617361648174 0.002745452462651 0.000428775512745
28 Portugal POR g 79.1 2.0823 0.9194 0.0107 0.23 0.114433375361797 0.03763816765555 0.014455605538406 0.003357138244992
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.54 2.0858 0.8897 0.2736 0.8074 0.292884137950583 0.120339613759888 0.040063792553877 0.010492229342433
32 USA USA g 78.46 2.1014 0.9798 0.1182 0.6832 0.340526869114531 0.112606520931546 0.038813205137332 0.008955343942841
4 Belgium BEL h 81.88 2.1496 0.7576 0.645 0.8752 0.415061966177896 0.160017551682679 0.064443965649051 0.018203871101105
14 England ENG d 82.23 2.1691 0.7432 0.0854 0.3255 0.148346486245995 0.042363226092619 0.016869159902312 0.005641615455972
31 Uruguay URU d 80.9 2.1952 0.8632 0.0547 0.2085 0.090924671596358 0.024897122613203 0.009504629888786 0.003002578441764
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.13 2.2127 1.0084 0.2217 0.7835 0.395110534128104 0.12519647849178 0.044669921029462 0.011038775455406
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.62 2.3309 0.9766 0.0373 0.5482 0.230768091115978 0.084929121074034 0.022536861006335 0.007691923723247
10 Colombia COL c 87.7 2.3934 0.4145 0.7565 0.9624 0.638882841166306 0.236075172228686 0.12096031147577 0.056475224299102
15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.478 0.6526 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 86.9 2.5366 0.5805 0.6872 0.9207 0.560293289531529 0.286614203459529 0.115553363617317 0.052639296101021
7 Chile CHI b 87.82 2.7509 0.6228 0.4083 1.0 0.450714468720522 0.294191877382459 0.159837742060596 0.070837190600748
26 Netherlands NED b 86.15 2.7997 0.8136 0.5917 1.0 0.489146184740499 0.308254276369514 0.15702078142341 0.060433922502395
2 Argentina ARG f 89.89 2.8248 0.4457 0.9077 0.982 0.698066472765686 0.498308410009224 0.31573291643178 0.147045175096821
6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1909 0.516 0.9184 0.9942 0.750983637426015 0.614370149755272 0.46667625734253 0.360343624255207
17 Germany GER g 89.42 3.2403 0.7437 0.8636 0.9786 0.78062604724335 0.523398343368317 0.246416830297313 0.145389856339719

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140619-091907" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);