FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by win_group

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group ▼ sixteen quarter semi cup win
3 Australia AUS b 70.15 1.7855 1.3089 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4901 1.1177 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.478 0.6526 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 Honduras HON e 68.18 1.5087 1.2107 0.0043 0.0666 0.011137790868099 0.003273669846451 0.000761253829345 9.7442363131e-05
18 Ghana GHA g 76.29 1.8443 0.9469 0.0075 0.1082 0.048587109114401 0.013978018845738 0.004595723101332 0.000912905813532
19 Greece GRE c 74.26 1.2973 0.6702 0.0099 0.1466 0.059911277294605 0.016677296395938 0.004638655208063 0.000800020753152
28 Portugal POR g 79.1 2.0823 0.9194 0.0107 0.23 0.114433375361797 0.03763816765555 0.014455605538406 0.003357138244992
23 Japan JPN c 73.09 2.068 1.3316 0.0119 0.1075 0.04205620101042 0.010617361648174 0.002745452462651 0.000428775512745
1 Algeria ALG h 64.3 1.1801 1.1672 0.0213 0.1551 0.02289718137931 0.004812517552247 0.000606574822335 8.7761049676e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1909 0.7937 0.0218 0.2058 0.054616293108938 0.012678688727279 0.002090088932781 0.000402124669716
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.86 1.548 0.822 0.0332 0.264 0.08542378187149 0.024248043480689 0.005003363733269 0.001170790258106
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.95 1.9863 0.7908 0.0349 0.2053 0.066810142787674 0.03001093910261 0.011067811450984 0.002809467818958
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.62 2.3309 0.9766 0.0373 0.5482 0.230768091115978 0.084929121074034 0.022536861006335 0.007691923723247
12 Croatia CRO a 79.64 2.0406 0.8511 0.0379 0.3965 0.128803344625078 0.062118727589576 0.022327738830619 0.00516369726724
25 Mexico MEX a 78.41 1.4717 0.5341 0.0437 0.6093 0.180352364487865 0.080800800614557 0.026710405349487 0.005590470898629
31 Uruguay URU d 80.9 2.1952 0.8632 0.0547 0.2085 0.090924671596358 0.024897122613203 0.009504629888786 0.003002578441764
14 England ENG d 82.23 2.1691 0.7432 0.0854 0.3255 0.148346486245995 0.042363226092619 0.016869159902312 0.005641615455972
32 USA USA g 78.46 2.1014 0.9798 0.1182 0.6832 0.340526869114531 0.112606520931546 0.038813205137332 0.008955343942841
24 South Korea KOR h 72.49 1.6878 1.0807 0.1343 0.411 0.097211057007447 0.025480515475723 0.005150478983421 0.000947856737684
29 Russia RUS h 78.33 1.6132 0.6413 0.1994 0.5587 0.180656394601349 0.061665675028453 0.016923101805247 0.004255632441262
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.13 2.2127 1.0084 0.2217 0.7835 0.395110534128104 0.12519647849178 0.044669921029462 0.011038775455406
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.54 2.0858 0.8897 0.2736 0.8074 0.292884137950583 0.120339613759888 0.040063792553877 0.010492229342433
7 Chile CHI b 87.82 2.7509 0.6228 0.4083 1.0 0.450714468720522 0.294191877382459 0.159837742060596 0.070837190600748
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5925 0.6815 0.4145 0.7242 0.289290823284294 0.078544230556949 0.025116179727055 0.005668932783028
22 Italy ITA d 80.15 2.0347 0.8101 0.4454 0.7418 0.335477165273908 0.105893280261314 0.038707828409129 0.010116356730368
26 Netherlands NED b 86.15 2.7997 0.8136 0.5917 1.0 0.489146184740499 0.308254276369514 0.15702078142341 0.060433922502395
4 Belgium BEL h 81.88 2.1496 0.7576 0.645 0.8752 0.415061966177896 0.160017551682679 0.064443965649051 0.018203871101105
16 France FRA e 86.9 2.5366 0.5805 0.6872 0.9207 0.560293289531529 0.286614203459529 0.115553363617317 0.052639296101021
10 Colombia COL c 87.7 2.3934 0.4145 0.7565 0.9624 0.638882841166306 0.236075172228686 0.12096031147577 0.056475224299102
17 Germany GER g 89.42 3.2403 0.7437 0.8636 0.9786 0.78062604724335 0.523398343368317 0.246416830297313 0.145389856339719
2 Argentina ARG f 89.89 2.8248 0.4457 0.9077 0.982 0.698066472765686 0.498308410009224 0.31573291643178 0.147045175096821
6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1909 0.516 0.9184 0.9942 0.750983637426015 0.614370149755272 0.46667625734253 0.360343624255207

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140619-091907" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);