FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.3 1.1801 1.1672 0.0249 0.1619 0.023802884383028 0.004992763459471 0.000632855687737 9.1384512453e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 89.89 2.8248 0.4457 0.9019 0.9824 0.696622294458107 0.496672680486628 0.318590675214787 0.148768716520945
3 Australia AUS b 70.15 1.7855 1.3089 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.88 2.1496 0.7576 0.6418 0.8652 0.410873517202829 0.158502824698375 0.064953722814089 0.018375117635527
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.62 2.3309 0.9766 0.0424 0.5563 0.236383421054204 0.087377849337851 0.023416650051767 0.007958896088182
6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1909 0.516 0.9195 0.9943 0.751064431767165 0.603135732538584 0.458112463134326 0.354854052658763
7 Chile CHI b 87.82 2.7509 0.6228 0.4076 1.0 0.451024157489257 0.296136161835628 0.161138520756642 0.071344898169224
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.13 2.2127 1.0084 0.0122 0.7196 0.365560191638906 0.133609321483432 0.048323503129883 0.011241673330306
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4901 1.1177 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 87.7 2.3934 0.4145 0.9791 0.9975 0.659577202503724 0.215681479351957 0.109298454013969 0.055290831439446
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5925 0.6815 0.4082 0.7129 0.286986427532969 0.079699679202261 0.025642379375656 0.00573865929366
12 Croatia CRO a 79.64 2.0406 0.8511 0.0367 0.3875 0.126066698986708 0.063094716646365 0.022734697974179 0.005267250111182
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.95 1.9863 0.7908 0.0351 0.2056 0.068099068504734 0.030496789113497 0.011550460215982 0.002920385744295
14 England ENG d 82.23 2.1691 0.7432 0.0867 0.3193 0.139749529753996 0.041190751352993 0.016450595093543 0.005433570984972
15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.478 0.6526 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 86.9 2.5366 0.5805 0.6772 0.913 0.550652069620778 0.281513426482096 0.113470529409973 0.052051525302287
17 Germany GER g 89.42 3.2403 0.7437 0.8641 0.9806 0.783286106681275 0.525303287797791 0.247148618559332 0.146608029053207
18 Ghana GHA g 76.29 1.8443 0.9469 0.0054 0.1097 0.049071473614957 0.013893835428782 0.004814252316489 0.000946806927484
19 Greece GRE c 74.26 1.2973 0.6702 0.0006 0.1805 0.073715185352633 0.020944517284159 0.005795890122997 0.00099478725838
20 Honduras HON e 68.18 1.5087 1.2107 0.0043 0.0686 0.011581085548336 0.003521110713441 0.000847851212359 0.000107252870363
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1909 0.7937 0.0203 0.1942 0.051887739696514 0.012017366560864 0.001979845400079 0.000382771033528
22 Italy ITA d 80.15 2.0347 0.8101 0.4446 0.7467 0.341166515546103 0.110419587577519 0.040418054994999 0.010490584082115
23 Japan JPN c 73.09 2.068 1.3316 0.0081 0.1024 0.03993075645733 0.010199705809254 0.002649441002939 0.000411511714195
24 South Korea KOR h 72.49 1.6878 1.0807 0.1275 0.4104 0.096446464662645 0.025513558325246 0.005186089281369 0.000956112537099
25 Mexico MEX a 78.41 1.4717 0.5341 0.0438 0.6182 0.182803864845679 0.085284032992329 0.028278200691866 0.005925646241893
26 Netherlands NED b 86.15 2.7997 0.8136 0.5924 1.0 0.489040846911172 0.314477962725665 0.160526894979705 0.061744432532039
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.86 1.548 0.822 0.0354 0.2671 0.087161106153095 0.024914596419859 0.00514089879352 0.001209250443553
28 Portugal POR g 79.1 2.0823 0.9194 0.0095 0.2323 0.116348622441769 0.038237260516336 0.015027729578667 0.003484604055855
29 Russia RUS h 78.33 1.6132 0.6413 0.2058 0.5625 0.182693954298951 0.062464845303129 0.017447807172578 0.004380013970884
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.54 2.0858 0.8897 0.2834 0.8128 0.297613214964213 0.121955026575763 0.041026133807567 0.010774950763881
31 Uruguay URU d 80.9 2.1952 0.8632 0.0605 0.2211 0.093314191214323 0.026126351199909 0.010011584435671 0.003142327065404
32 USA USA g 78.46 2.1014 0.9798 0.121 0.6774 0.337476976714631 0.112622778780821 0.039385200777319 0.009103957658877

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140619-180248" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);