FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.3 1.1801 1.1672 0.0213 0.1603 0.023259867510441 0.004890626088145 0.000608510435799 8.8817109972e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 89.89 2.8248 0.4457 0.9056 0.983 0.696636779825277 0.49545038636756 0.318155734617603 0.148485821291621
3 Australia AUS b 70.15 1.7855 1.3089 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.88 2.1496 0.7576 0.6498 0.8731 0.415894590892218 0.160502693277927 0.065857557029106 0.018605682976931
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.62 2.3309 0.9766 0.0372 0.5481 0.231859482518841 0.085700049403245 0.022680861763488 0.007760693291829
6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1909 0.516 0.9225 0.9951 0.751387759859368 0.603810318364331 0.458871199054243 0.355437787169821
7 Chile CHI b 87.82 2.7509 0.6228 0.4007 1.0 0.446848998258289 0.293485048607978 0.15947567310467 0.070786044172307
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.13 2.2127 1.0084 0.0092 0.7265 0.369340251366138 0.135527026319554 0.048778857026552 0.01133922271911
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4901 1.1177 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 87.7 2.3934 0.4145 0.9808 0.9981 0.668193809685106 0.217953394654138 0.110584606176768 0.055986996118278
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5925 0.6815 0.3894 0.7749 0.301584976995415 0.08080127421685 0.025825715848492 0.005890605623652
12 Croatia CRO a 79.64 2.0406 0.8511 0.0371 0.3855 0.125329680964369 0.062788579016585 0.022662942351756 0.005240743349471
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.95 1.9863 0.7908 0.0327 0.2016 0.065921802777657 0.029565572764142 0.011294661077033 0.002838386221885
14 England ENG d 82.23 2.1691 0.7432 0.0 0.0355 0.013537736328847 0.003063505896961 0.001200715011785 0.000464220924024
15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.478 0.6526 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 86.9 2.5366 0.5805 0.6823 0.9229 0.557201436272552 0.286839569671843 0.115747577356878 0.052970775247164
17 Germany GER g 89.42 3.2403 0.7437 0.8577 0.978 0.781034344269677 0.523445392946737 0.246518107320227 0.146131018336064
18 Ghana GHA g 76.29 1.8443 0.9469 0.0083 0.1084 0.048578652909531 0.013972141427757 0.004704918034147 0.000939173105353
19 Greece GRE c 74.26 1.2973 0.6702 0.0002 0.1774 0.072575018129067 0.020798925390397 0.005804906089509 0.0009884554299
20 Honduras HON e 68.18 1.5087 1.2107 0.0068 0.0684 0.011949630102993 0.003433701893827 0.000805387936128 0.000103719894922
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1909 0.7937 0.0214 0.1995 0.053909341012767 0.01262328922587 0.002078665903066 0.000401615166573
22 Italy ITA d 80.15 2.0347 0.8101 0.465 0.7402 0.342444247798004 0.112290431748964 0.041130617094978 0.01059359221449
23 Japan JPN c 73.09 2.068 1.3316 0.0098 0.098 0.038354933979705 0.009562181014744 0.002478086117013 0.000388929599063
24 South Korea KOR h 72.49 1.6878 1.0807 0.1231 0.4032 0.095128243833864 0.025204664803249 0.00506364192337 0.000939091838373
25 Mexico MEX a 78.41 1.4717 0.5341 0.0404 0.6194 0.183508384931075 0.085723383187317 0.028307859310284 0.005929776536101
26 Netherlands NED b 86.15 2.7997 0.8136 0.5993 1.0 0.492925175986882 0.317548423382409 0.162041088449767 0.062184679510136
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.86 1.548 0.822 0.0358 0.2694 0.087164305433391 0.024961214954681 0.005197982707744 0.001216842766396
28 Portugal POR g 79.1 2.0823 0.9194 0.011 0.2343 0.117147099561979 0.038643467569804 0.015176157890021 0.003514412422333
29 Russia RUS h 78.33 1.6132 0.6413 0.2058 0.5634 0.181672445854857 0.061992716508288 0.017268635973236 0.004347688722124
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.54 2.0858 0.8897 0.2782 0.8071 0.295357222056501 0.120656395498449 0.040653501436151 0.010676240327627
31 Uruguay URU d 80.9 2.1952 0.8632 0.1456 0.4494 0.193969025717695 0.056647508199831 0.021824403762639 0.00668829018455
32 USA USA g 78.46 2.1014 0.9798 0.123 0.6793 0.337284755167512 0.112118117598433 0.039201429197538 0.009060677729932

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140619-205931" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);