FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.3 1.1801 1.1672 0.0217 0.1586 0.023177660771138 0.004881756114467 0.000606948115912 8.8754277789e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 89.89 2.8248 0.4457 0.905 0.9822 0.69805828852777 0.497423122101919 0.318698768763173 0.148921267223212
3 Australia AUS b 70.15 1.7855 1.3089 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.88 2.1496 0.7576 0.6577 0.8761 0.417748609766226 0.160815052881811 0.066165264521403 0.018671922696224
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.62 2.3309 0.9766 0.0404 0.5473 0.231705012379867 0.085791347796427 0.022963069606349 0.007799830205726
6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1909 0.516 0.9147 0.9947 0.751267722957209 0.603693971064252 0.45864000244126 0.355277145762385
7 Chile CHI b 87.82 2.7509 0.6228 0.4017 1.0 0.449610128294513 0.29491982623617 0.160377043220416 0.071075448751948
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.13 2.2127 1.0084 0.0127 0.7303 0.370904646820847 0.13529968804344 0.048836962335756 0.011373467771834
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4901 1.1177 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 87.7 2.3934 0.4145 0.9873 1.0 0.669865156298407 0.218901327395635 0.110938387779221 0.05614267843224
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5925 0.6815 0.3893 0.7823 0.30390935233752 0.081107526709973 0.025865553440673 0.005917583252923
12 Croatia CRO a 79.64 2.0406 0.8511 0.0401 0.386 0.12564233760307 0.06291216014616 0.022710942013082 0.005254143540252
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.95 1.9863 0.7908 0.0356 0.2065 0.067921848139264 0.03027262336179 0.011380925539579 0.002889963674165
14 England ENG d 82.23 2.1691 0.7432 0.0 0.0348 0.01332331455851 0.002958141570253 0.001157861761284 0.000454207509236
15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.478 0.6526 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 86.9 2.5366 0.5805 0.6828 0.9146 0.555323164350654 0.283713955375378 0.114176317706463 0.052400358969267
17 Germany GER g 89.42 3.2403 0.7437 0.8628 0.9779 0.780992990684355 0.523310910820083 0.246621304159999 0.146053856439713
18 Ghana GHA g 76.29 1.8443 0.9469 0.0082 0.1108 0.049449202022399 0.014227097031239 0.004822185723493 0.000957936420188
19 Greece GRE c 74.26 1.2973 0.6702 0.0 0.2276 0.09353377560451 0.026553658843663 0.007371875257482 0.001261539180772
20 Honduras HON e 68.18 1.5087 1.2107 0.0056 0.0684 0.01151521267765 0.003343368372675 0.000796667836281 0.000102284725702
21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1909 0.7937 0.0207 0.1927 0.051695230833647 0.012098771190776 0.001996002471082 0.000385795719305
22 Italy ITA d 80.15 2.0347 0.8101 0.4611 0.7367 0.339891755775346 0.111517882916613 0.040915257099544 0.010528059991765
23 Japan JPN c 73.09 2.068 1.3316 0.0 0.0421 0.016423311204373 0.004340302985856 0.001127319896262 0.000172410312058
24 South Korea KOR h 72.49 1.6878 1.0807 0.128 0.4123 0.097669907433158 0.025848187357784 0.005218932909619 0.000964346401263
25 Mexico MEX a 78.41 1.4717 0.5341 0.0452 0.6193 0.183165853013789 0.085463110774515 0.028250546272506 0.005917536311278
26 Netherlands NED b 86.15 2.7997 0.8136 0.5983 1.0 0.490313958131399 0.315867493232421 0.161175045323294 0.061929657171098
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.86 1.548 0.822 0.0339 0.2778 0.089310933027886 0.025334918781069 0.005213991536077 0.001230450314165
28 Portugal POR g 79.1 2.0823 0.9194 0.0109 0.235 0.11743283261904 0.038654584370085 0.015146261311123 0.003517857427765
29 Russia RUS h 78.33 1.6132 0.6413 0.1926 0.553 0.177162186203962 0.060772578320853 0.016790373805651 0.004248921111477
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.54 2.0858 0.8897 0.276 0.8105 0.294470310063246 0.121549524614672 0.041126799192739 0.010757743079142
31 Uruguay URU d 80.9 2.1952 0.8632 0.1496 0.4462 0.192148687400466 0.056464910081108 0.021812816010003 0.00665547387846
32 USA USA g 78.46 2.1014 0.9798 0.1181 0.6763 0.336366610499802 0.11196220150893 0.039096573950261 0.00904935944865

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140619-235903" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);