FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.25 1.1759 1.1674 0.0236 0.1623 0.023645059689998 0.004990941220779 0.000628258032039 9.0628287195e-05
2 Argentina ARG f 89.91 2.8255 0.4452 0.9045 0.9818 0.698411285240104 0.498968071009831 0.320476356837976 0.149736734183571
3 Australia AUS b 70.13 1.7862 1.3112 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.82 2.1461 0.7596 0.642 0.8648 0.411528301422294 0.158234828872328 0.064644378308491 0.018235238147817
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.59 2.331 0.9799 0.0398 0.5418 0.228291029280808 0.083769573874603 0.022255577726515 0.007599615249469
6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1914 0.5169 0.9206 0.9937 0.751625230199646 0.604612226481119 0.458989170940008 0.355663925524123
7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7346 0.6173 0.4062 1.0 0.448935876761193 0.293438327364157 0.159130314253643 0.07018745168203
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2615 1.0159 0.0111 0.7408 0.381962449151415 0.143067668011507 0.052564472634396 0.012517950948151
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4899 1.1181 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 87.5 2.4207 0.4508 0.9889 1.0 0.664328949922692 0.214301784485206 0.107789781027387 0.054455438182037
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5984 0.6861 0.3989 0.7735 0.300618825682708 0.081155101654328 0.025937631073452 0.00590778167619
12 Croatia CRO a 79.63 2.0389 0.8511 0.0368 0.3955 0.128937545771358 0.064169817587742 0.023091441851929 0.005345930779088
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9872 0.7934 0.0374 0.2028 0.06674834694734 0.029815114714796 0.011178319823574 0.002836639519985
14 England ENG d 81.52 2.1296 0.7722 0.0 0.0343 0.012701264166529 0.002778416778625 0.001024146797597 0.000386165153215
15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.4782 0.653 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 86.89 2.5361 0.5808 0.681 0.9176 0.55781157358499 0.285514840827294 0.11524104941672 0.052813060499374
17 Germany GER g 89.41 3.2374 0.7435 0.8707 0.9814 0.784616145283725 0.526358406230596 0.247543700601057 0.146772179090509
18 Ghana GHA g 76.28 1.8448 0.9487 0.0064 0.1019 0.045927237558163 0.013137087407737 0.004491224771293 0.00088646011665
19 Greece GRE c 74.23 1.183 0.5846 0.0 0.216 0.08801054303202 0.02504076630566 0.006965510794796 0.001188747960763
20 Honduras HON e 68.14 1.506 1.2117 0.0053 0.0705 0.011684559001014 0.003427091008414 0.000826488292923 0.000104975308518
21 Iran IRN f 70.83 1.1912 0.7941 0.0195 0.2002 0.053166499194438 0.012145174333796 0.001983956255053 0.000388458617131
22 Italy ITA d 80.06 2.0297 0.813 0.4552 0.7367 0.336272893964868 0.109342623940326 0.039918929854833 0.010268475809948
23 Japan JPN c 73.26 1.9584 1.2372 0.0 0.0432 0.01696908802726 0.004546032026586 0.001188654659909 0.000183179131671
24 South Korea KOR h 72.53 1.6905 1.0807 0.1308 0.4149 0.097405785944679 0.025612314004677 0.005263835895742 0.000971356127491
25 Mexico MEX a 78.38 1.4687 0.5347 0.0426 0.6108 0.181110951573453 0.083970736588486 0.027751664682239 0.005804204693249
26 Netherlands NED b 86.13 2.7973 0.8149 0.5938 1.0 0.489390395694333 0.313803258876436 0.159637359672111 0.061329987241031
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.87 1.5464 0.8209 0.0362 0.2762 0.089702383892617 0.025636411055432 0.005347740296217 0.001252718756061
28 Portugal POR g 79.07 2.0819 0.9218 0.0094 0.2377 0.118721769235855 0.038816274976554 0.01530863367612 0.003543518722071
29 Russia RUS h 78.34 1.6128 0.6409 0.2036 0.558 0.180378268737487 0.061399193808415 0.017163324208336 0.004320028800731
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.55 2.0841 0.8886 0.2763 0.8091 0.294184322858585 0.120530637442515 0.040826990280262 0.010705373513454
31 Uruguay URU d 81.42 2.231 0.8484 0.1459 0.4555 0.199135986052566 0.059773239899779 0.02359024102425 0.007455970548469
32 USA USA g 78.44 2.1002 0.9802 0.1135 0.679 0.337777432127865 0.111644039212229 0.039240846311127 0.009047805730005

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140620-094015" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);