2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140620-235753.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi_offense

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense ▼ spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 Algeria ALG h 64.25 1.1759 1.1674 0.0208 0.1612 0.023822225564571 0.004642046469399999 0.000592933348165 8.5072360298e-05
19 Greece GRE c 74.23 1.183 0.5846 0.0 0.2093 0.09109516634182599 0.026092445743608 0.0073595538679380006 0.0012491466607179999
21 Iran IRN f 70.83 1.1912 0.7941 0.0214 0.2008 0.04655035897130901 0.011082094753768998 0.001889200670292 0.00035941093832999997
25 Mexico MEX a 78.38 1.4687 0.5347 0.0399 0.609 0.180654522823442 0.086135301822886 0.028714848392849997 0.005987791925261998
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4899 1.1181 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 Honduras HON e 68.14 1.506 1.2117 0.0 0.0156 0.002432526982666 0.000734629689273 0.00018779119297999999 2.3064435524e-05
27 Nigeria NGA f 74.87 1.5464 0.8209 0.0362 0.2707 0.077628599563765 0.022474913266808 0.004848223145595 0.001115721275687
11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5984 0.6861 0.8753 1.0 0.451403600167022 0.144139825903059 0.04725837597717 0.009882227261625
29 Russia RUS h 78.34 1.6128 0.6409 0.2015 0.5604 0.18021163862394501 0.05955779786349201 0.016905187766968997 0.004226365924494001
24 South Korea KOR h 72.53 1.6905 1.0807 0.1233 0.4119 0.096494811533901 0.024301739732358996 0.0050181462543599994 0.000926273030152
3 Australia AUS b 70.13 1.7862 1.3112 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 Ghana GHA g 76.28 1.8448 0.9487 0.0064 0.1106 0.049429436958193 0.014443910386641 0.004991540030425999 0.000983750552676
23 Japan JPN c 73.26 1.9584 1.2372 0.0 0.0413 0.017369024148292 0.0046486814106560005 0.00122902405135 0.000189541010474
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9872 0.7934 0.0052 0.3843 0.11280769887217401 0.054542986989533 0.022649989569531005 0.005424000820114
22 Italy ITA d 80.06 2.0297 0.813 0.0628 0.6024 0.21771050074826698 0.048184156766244005 0.016663007547241 0.005335888838292
12 Croatia CRO a 79.63 2.0389 0.8511 0.0401 0.3956 0.129102758690642 0.06572378854064599 0.023988080599226 0.005528494441971
28 Portugal POR g 79.07 2.0819 0.9218 0.0101 0.2315 0.11565253534306699 0.038730146787384005 0.015375480783476001 0.003550241445562
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.55 2.0841 0.8886 0.0008 0.6007 0.170703596953412 0.082035219873791 0.033799447450837 0.007901844044491001
32 USA USA g 78.44 2.1002 0.9802 0.1236 0.6794 0.337998984316163 0.11214549221655401 0.039753018321702006 0.009143384779355
14 England ENG d 81.52 2.1296 0.7722 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.82 2.1461 0.7596 0.6544 0.8665 0.414125292809248 0.15917930379864403 0.066443325907681 0.018571782757338
31 Uruguay URU d 81.42 2.231 0.8484 0.0619 0.3976 0.161642779447292 0.042159154103415 0.016205081689228 0.005568191936181999
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2615 1.0159 0.0129 0.7494 0.40680168280729495 0.152064699131503 0.056571300933451 0.013439692710297999
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.59 2.331 0.9799 0.0372 0.5445 0.20479060121171802 0.076074350787074 0.020498952092898 0.006959851041733001
10 Colombia COL c 87.5 2.4207 0.4508 0.9871 1.0 0.653977246340077 0.21118812568098602 0.104492013744209 0.052890321846410994
15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.4782 0.653 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 86.89 2.5361 0.5808 0.994 0.9994 0.665198423966258 0.323177620218612 0.11555596703725599 0.057683207086759
7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7346 0.6173 0.3974 1.0 0.44566261071672497 0.293890603221623 0.159126969016228 0.070203351101303
26 Netherlands NED b 86.13 2.7973 0.8149 0.6026 1.0 0.4918734872021379 0.32018487646384003 0.163751799148315 0.06265510240287
2 Argentina ARG f 89.91 2.8255 0.4452 0.9052 0.984 0.7198881934786271 0.5138148107371779 0.33147680419914 0.154742830446819
6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1914 0.5169 0.92 0.9954 0.7527066205670351 0.6055883412115179 0.4567749584880821 0.35438816002890705
17 Germany GER g 89.41 3.2374 0.7435 0.8599 0.9785 0.782265074850978 0.5030629364294861 0.237878978773379 0.14098528889635698

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140620-235753" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
)
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