2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140622-175429.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by group

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group ▼ spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.186 0.5158 0.9191 0.9939 0.750452139888577 0.60349247952265 0.458063882197773 0.356746793043999
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 69.29 1.4838 1.1217 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 12 Croatia CRO a 79.49 2.0251 0.8508 0.0358 0.3949 0.127463373732554 0.064233786322742 0.02341977036237 0.005416053367198
25 25 Mexico MEX a 78.43 1.4776 0.5368 0.0451 0.6112 0.181456870884138 0.085663466901592 0.02885589044271 0.006103545854891
3 3 Australia AUS b 70.31 1.7889 1.3002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7354 0.6178 0.4064 1.0 0.449070587938845 0.295166640736862 0.161355757166869 0.071693357879924
15 15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4827 0.6531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.19 2.7961 0.8076 0.5936 1.0 0.491557027555809 0.31868371773295 0.164643540681137 0.06389107423984
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2641 1.0166 0.013 0.7385 0.39267921509 0.146857973898669 0.05502328024501 0.013215606879824
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.48 2.4192 0.4511 0.987 1.0 0.658036257112319 0.212802032493318 0.106721056013263 0.054383891934947
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.14 1.1789 0.5861 0.0 0.2202 0.092936849590974 0.026276831778392 0.007419025772991 0.001271421038011
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.36 1.97 1.2383 0.0 0.0413 0.017034255537747 0.004636764792729 0.00123192394709 0.000192451623502
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.52 1.5889 0.6109 0.8802 1.0 0.467636782880729 0.155467759510283 0.053334794020702 0.01186160838292
14 14 England ENG d 81.41 2.1295 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 22 Italy ITA d 79.23 1.9415 0.8109 0.0562 0.5835 0.201478357688748 0.042050482275558 0.014223740131153 0.004422606060601
31 31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2409 0.8485 0.0636 0.4165 0.170198282099597 0.04466806403418 0.017409383634968 0.006076330213538
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 79.96 1.9882 0.791 0.0029 0.3709 0.114271526989592 0.052617423814621 0.021822317785418 0.005280194423531
16 16 France FRA e 87.81 2.7464 0.6204 0.9971 0.9998 0.722173749292681 0.40462979740154 0.156575349820236 0.083813553603878
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.3 1.5104 1.2044 0.0 0.0193 0.003233790534607 0.000912267556407 0.000234203646487 2.9705326007e-05
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 78.26 2.1701 1.0416 0.0 0.61 0.172597831147369 0.075160540751651 0.029632912102997 0.006550977071317
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.66 2.7413 0.4218 0.8909 1.0 0.722523851438545 0.492335302636811 0.309462554775411 0.142795902120626
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.44 2.199 0.9753 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 21 Iran IRN f 71.13 1.1454 0.7389 0.0 0.1261 0.024499579557585 0.006147919083531 0.000867692161579 0.000196953490057
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 76.01 1.5294 0.7335 0.1091 0.8739 0.240699671039645 0.079596336239923 0.017720243986996 0.004393266720471
17 17 Germany GER g 88.69 3.1804 0.7879 0.7558 0.9782 0.770209596704822 0.459629441404286 0.217130715670713 0.121480702067442
18 18 Ghana GHA g 77.45 1.9154 0.918 0.0 0.1575 0.068997145128504 0.021885111057706 0.008185002711622 0.001689456503046
28 28 Portugal POR g 78.95 2.077 0.926 0.0349 0.2237 0.108885473123994 0.038044749573322 0.014077579091496 0.003367954216536
32 32 USA USA g 78.67 2.1221 0.9784 0.2093 0.6406 0.32232645425094 0.111323631003748 0.036685595740415 0.00905037827022
1 1 Algeria ALG h 64.24 1.1759 1.1673 0.0096 0.1874 0.029816781562364 0.005523792407661 0.00061395947351 9.8908437797e-05
4 4 Belgium BEL h 81.79 2.1428 0.759 0.9031 1.0 0.487876124013868 0.190880730228088 0.083305493309295 0.022785363580161
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.56 1.6908 1.0781 0.0873 0.4675 0.110868545900654 0.02780211987419 0.005117250505645 0.001033045217578
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.29 1.6109 0.6422 0.0 0.3451 0.101019879314876 0.033510836966515 0.006867084602145 0.002158898432137

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140622-175429" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);