FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by semi

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi ▼ cup win
3 Australia AUS b 70.31 1.7889 1.3002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.44 2.199 0.9753 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.29 1.4838 1.1217 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.41 2.1295 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4827 0.6531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 Honduras HON e 68.3 1.5104 1.2044 0.0 0.0193 0.003233790534607 0.000912267556407 0.000234203646487 2.9705326007e-05
23 Japan JPN c 73.36 1.97 1.2383 0.0 0.0413 0.017034255537747 0.004636764792729 0.00123192394709 0.000192451623502
1 Algeria ALG h 64.24 1.1759 1.1673 0.0096 0.1874 0.029816781562364 0.005523792407661 0.00061395947351 9.8908437797e-05
21 Iran IRN f 71.13 1.1454 0.7389 0.0 0.1261 0.024499579557585 0.006147919083531 0.000867692161579 0.000196953490057
18 Ghana GHA g 77.45 1.9154 0.918 0.0 0.1575 0.068997145128504 0.021885111057706 0.008185002711622 0.001689456503046
19 Greece GRE c 74.14 1.1789 0.5861 0.0 0.2202 0.092936849590974 0.026276831778392 0.007419025772991 0.001271421038011
24 South Korea KOR h 72.56 1.6908 1.0781 0.0873 0.4675 0.110868545900654 0.02780211987419 0.005117250505645 0.001033045217578
29 Russia RUS h 78.29 1.6109 0.6422 0.0 0.3451 0.101019879314876 0.033510836966515 0.006867084602145 0.002158898432137
28 Portugal POR g 78.95 2.077 0.926 0.0349 0.2237 0.108885473123994 0.038044749573322 0.014077579091496 0.003367954216536
22 Italy ITA d 79.23 1.9415 0.8109 0.0562 0.5835 0.201478357688748 0.042050482275558 0.014223740131153 0.004422606060601
31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2409 0.8485 0.0636 0.4165 0.170198282099597 0.04466806403418 0.017409383634968 0.006076330213538
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.96 1.9882 0.791 0.0029 0.3709 0.114271526989592 0.052617423814621 0.021822317785418 0.005280194423531
12 Croatia CRO a 79.49 2.0251 0.8508 0.0358 0.3949 0.127463373732554 0.064233786322742 0.02341977036237 0.005416053367198
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.26 2.1701 1.0416 0.0 0.61 0.172597831147369 0.075160540751651 0.029632912102997 0.006550977071317
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.01 1.5294 0.7335 0.1091 0.8739 0.240699671039645 0.079596336239923 0.017720243986996 0.004393266720471
25 Mexico MEX a 78.43 1.4776 0.5368 0.0451 0.6112 0.181456870884138 0.085663466901592 0.02885589044271 0.006103545854891
32 USA USA g 78.67 2.1221 0.9784 0.2093 0.6406 0.32232645425094 0.111323631003748 0.036685595740415 0.00905037827022
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2641 1.0166 0.013 0.7385 0.39267921509 0.146857973898669 0.05502328024501 0.013215606879824
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.52 1.5889 0.6109 0.8802 1.0 0.467636782880729 0.155467759510283 0.053334794020702 0.01186160838292
4 Belgium BEL h 81.79 2.1428 0.759 0.9031 1.0 0.487876124013868 0.190880730228088 0.083305493309295 0.022785363580161
10 Colombia COL c 87.48 2.4192 0.4511 0.987 1.0 0.658036257112319 0.212802032493318 0.106721056013263 0.054383891934947
7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7354 0.6178 0.4064 1.0 0.449070587938845 0.295166640736862 0.161355757166869 0.071693357879924
26 Netherlands NED b 86.19 2.7961 0.8076 0.5936 1.0 0.491557027555809 0.31868371773295 0.164643540681137 0.06389107423984
16 France FRA e 87.81 2.7464 0.6204 0.9971 0.9998 0.722173749292681 0.40462979740154 0.156575349820236 0.083813553603878
17 Germany GER g 88.69 3.1804 0.7879 0.7558 0.9782 0.770209596704822 0.459629441404286 0.217130715670713 0.121480702067442
2 Argentina ARG f 89.66 2.7413 0.4218 0.8909 1.0 0.722523851438545 0.492335302636811 0.309462554775411 0.142795902120626
6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.186 0.5158 0.9191 0.9939 0.750452139888577 0.60349247952265 0.458063882197773 0.356746793043999

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140622-175429" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);