FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by spi_offense

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense ▼ spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
21 Iran IRN f 71.13 1.1454 0.7389 0.0 0.1261 0.024499579557585 0.006147919083531 0.000867692161579 0.000196953490057
1 Algeria ALG h 64.24 1.1759 1.1673 0.0096 0.1874 0.029816781562364 0.005523792407661 0.00061395947351 9.8908437797e-05
19 Greece GRE c 74.14 1.1789 0.5861 0.0 0.2202 0.092936849590974 0.026276831778392 0.007419025772991 0.001271421038011
25 Mexico MEX a 78.43 1.4776 0.5368 0.0451 0.6112 0.181456870884138 0.085663466901592 0.02885589044271 0.006103545854891
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.29 1.4838 1.1217 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 Honduras HON e 68.3 1.5104 1.2044 0.0 0.0193 0.003233790534607 0.000912267556407 0.000234203646487 2.9705326007e-05
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.01 1.5294 0.7335 0.1091 0.8739 0.240699671039645 0.079596336239923 0.017720243986996 0.004393266720471
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.52 1.5889 0.6109 0.8802 1.0 0.467636782880729 0.155467759510283 0.053334794020702 0.01186160838292
29 Russia RUS h 78.29 1.6109 0.6422 0.0 0.3451 0.101019879314876 0.033510836966515 0.006867084602145 0.002158898432137
24 South Korea KOR h 72.56 1.6908 1.0781 0.0873 0.4675 0.110868545900654 0.02780211987419 0.005117250505645 0.001033045217578
3 Australia AUS b 70.31 1.7889 1.3002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 Ghana GHA g 77.45 1.9154 0.918 0.0 0.1575 0.068997145128504 0.021885111057706 0.008185002711622 0.001689456503046
22 Italy ITA d 79.23 1.9415 0.8109 0.0562 0.5835 0.201478357688748 0.042050482275558 0.014223740131153 0.004422606060601
23 Japan JPN c 73.36 1.97 1.2383 0.0 0.0413 0.017034255537747 0.004636764792729 0.00123192394709 0.000192451623502
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.96 1.9882 0.791 0.0029 0.3709 0.114271526989592 0.052617423814621 0.021822317785418 0.005280194423531
12 Croatia CRO a 79.49 2.0251 0.8508 0.0358 0.3949 0.127463373732554 0.064233786322742 0.02341977036237 0.005416053367198
28 Portugal POR g 78.95 2.077 0.926 0.0349 0.2237 0.108885473123994 0.038044749573322 0.014077579091496 0.003367954216536
32 USA USA g 78.67 2.1221 0.9784 0.2093 0.6406 0.32232645425094 0.111323631003748 0.036685595740415 0.00905037827022
14 England ENG d 81.41 2.1295 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 81.79 2.1428 0.759 0.9031 1.0 0.487876124013868 0.190880730228088 0.083305493309295 0.022785363580161
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.26 2.1701 1.0416 0.0 0.61 0.172597831147369 0.075160540751651 0.029632912102997 0.006550977071317
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.44 2.199 0.9753 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2409 0.8485 0.0636 0.4165 0.170198282099597 0.04466806403418 0.017409383634968 0.006076330213538
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2641 1.0166 0.013 0.7385 0.39267921509 0.146857973898669 0.05502328024501 0.013215606879824
10 Colombia COL c 87.48 2.4192 0.4511 0.987 1.0 0.658036257112319 0.212802032493318 0.106721056013263 0.054383891934947
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4827 0.6531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7354 0.6178 0.4064 1.0 0.449070587938845 0.295166640736862 0.161355757166869 0.071693357879924
2 Argentina ARG f 89.66 2.7413 0.4218 0.8909 1.0 0.722523851438545 0.492335302636811 0.309462554775411 0.142795902120626
16 France FRA e 87.81 2.7464 0.6204 0.9971 0.9998 0.722173749292681 0.40462979740154 0.156575349820236 0.083813553603878
26 Netherlands NED b 86.19 2.7961 0.8076 0.5936 1.0 0.491557027555809 0.31868371773295 0.164643540681137 0.06389107423984
17 Germany GER g 88.69 3.1804 0.7879 0.7558 0.9782 0.770209596704822 0.459629441404286 0.217130715670713 0.121480702067442
6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.186 0.5158 0.9191 0.9939 0.750452139888577 0.60349247952265 0.458063882197773 0.356746793043999

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140622-175429" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);