2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140623-220333.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by cup

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup ▼ win
3 Australia AUS b 70.26 1.7863 1.3032 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 79.34 2.1914 0.9794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 69.34 1.4876 1.1228 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Croatia CRO a 79.81 2.0425 0.8417 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.42 2.1295 0.7809 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 85.74 2.4815 0.6539 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 South Korea KOR h 64.44 1.6461 1.5618 0.0 0.0078 0.001015272842881 0.000178824311598 1.5277408618e-05 2.5479589060000002e-06
20 Honduras HON e 68.27 1.5098 1.2066 0.0 0.0182 0.003005401838997 0.00085586336887 0.00023583478825799998 2.895910891e-05
21 Iran IRN f 70.87 1.1287 0.742 0.0 0.1248 0.023993685278145 0.005554717609752 0.0007287547830780001 0.00017671681982400002
23 Japan JPN c 73.34 1.972 1.2427 0.0 0.0375 0.015544546222818 0.0045725161731429995 0.001225001193414 0.000187634192634
28 Portugal POR g 78.88 2.0901 0.9426 0.0 0.0506 0.021580937002348997 0.007462311317862 0.003196972757545 0.000714078271133
29 Russia RUS h 76.91 1.4624 0.6276 0.0 0.3545 0.08730751594867199 0.027255829691962996 0.004887602887864001 0.0015505091502449999
19 Greece GRE c 72.85 1.1093 0.6108 0.0 0.1934 0.07890091367176501 0.02320409562603 0.0062432258126430005 0.0009833450826880002
1 Algeria ALG h 74.28 2.0432 1.2319 0.0378 0.6377 0.150021039856904 0.043400263678166 0.007801445982459 0.002121789442105
18 Ghana GHA g 78.98 1.9887 0.8644 0.0 0.2052 0.087246893860638 0.029710371957821 0.012610760106253999 0.002796400740812
22 Italy ITA d 79.21 1.9401 0.8138 0.0548 0.5896 0.20393616506512602 0.040294185833965 0.013355370533496 0.004342648171074001
31 Uruguay URU d 81.47 2.2401 0.8513 0.0552 0.4104 0.166435297316293 0.041226288226085 0.01591555699562 0.005809487385864001
27 Nigeria NGA f 76.09 1.5318 0.732 0.1082 0.8752 0.242164021838945 0.075698755110713 0.016798410417254 0.0043193256331549995
13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9854 0.7933 0.0037 0.3733 0.11478011942033198 0.051812143415551 0.022702742311096 0.005381283418092
30 Switzerland SUI e 78.16 2.1622 1.0454 0.0004 0.6086 0.171751139419932 0.073384868699633 0.030566935534404 0.006581660080625
32 USA USA g 78.74 2.1609 1.0022 0.1369 0.747 0.33806532939604306 0.116877131581675 0.043818439605138 0.010337861039941
25 Mexico MEX a 78.39 1.4714 0.5366 0.0 1.0 0.30827385391661 0.147635251928042 0.050063488298717 0.010502822960020001
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.47 1.5821 0.6114 0.89 1.0 0.466069644041325 0.16654844501035398 0.057173674952878 0.012439015223775001
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.68 2.2768 1.0128 0.0153 0.7691 0.412771462589592 0.167626947513046 0.06358045843403 0.015181448359792
7 Chile CHI b 87.76 2.7339 0.6197 0.0 1.0 0.258478655263344 0.15056684335656 0.077973631319431 0.044177780747179
10 Colombia COL c 87.41 2.4118 0.4555 0.9847 1.0 0.6563419710929561 0.19931602881331398 0.09796021422002801 0.052282567455219996
4 Belgium BEL h 83.29 2.1563 0.6524 0.9622 1.0 0.5377500979965371 0.224037585169874 0.11148121237422802 0.032158557420669
16 France FRA e 87.8 2.7457 0.6228 0.9959 0.9999 0.721580827386903 0.38901936666910103 0.14510664387299899 0.081371335765007
17 Germany GER g 88.74 3.1773 0.7828 0.8631 0.9972 0.777012913096136 0.466395277947485 0.207825363658416 0.12296294293647198
26 Netherlands NED b 86.2 2.7928 0.8062 1.0 1.0 0.6917261460832711 0.466789520407035 0.24476922646146498 0.08881470584351199
2 Argentina ARG f 89.64 2.7388 0.425 0.8918 1.0 0.722724804816972 0.4883566894700229 0.319090571268164 0.145020450032203
6 Brazil BRA a 91.1 3.1656 0.5023 1.0 1.0 0.741521344736627 0.592219877112427 0.44487318402248904 0.34975412676014306

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140623-220333" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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