2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140626-095930.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by group

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group ▼ spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.24 3.2325 0.5205 1.0 1.0 0.778085492334867 0.612296527190661 0.470877739694673 0.362102593679645
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 68.13 1.4486 1.1702 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 12 Croatia CRO a 77.94 2.0413 0.9788 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
25 25 Mexico MEX a 80.03 1.6198 0.5329 0.0 1.0 0.309494772961891 0.170683083147933 0.056696522818137 0.012807157446668
3 3 Australia AUS b 67.47 1.685 1.406 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.58 2.5767 0.637 0.0 1.0 0.221914507665133 0.115003237986451 0.056925285211124 0.028432478378577
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.28 2.5038 0.6197 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
26 26 Netherlands NED b 87.39 2.809 0.7022 1.0 1.0 0.69050522703829 0.507857477306055 0.262092764809487 0.100320703760493
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.08 2.2328 1.1047 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 10 Colombia COL c 88.17 2.5118 0.4427 1.0 1.0 0.633888546441141 0.197547532386367 0.103908418122418 0.055070056744093
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.48 1.1804 0.5712 0.0 1.0 0.436343919294788 0.126280336263112 0.032543106232251 0.005459485261523
23 23 Japan JPN c 72.54 2.0196 1.3385 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.46 1.4994 0.5545 1.0 1.0 0.563656080705206 0.195179103282941 0.060730069237579 0.012699562455977
14 14 England ENG d 81.15 2.0557 0.7531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 22 Italy ITA d 78.52 1.818 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
31 31 Uruguay URU d 82.11 2.1995 0.7766 0.0 1.0 0.366111453558818 0.075152702436533 0.02955553768338 0.011790388468188
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.22 1.8419 0.6747 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 16 France FRA e 87.68 2.6496 0.5759 1.0 1.0 0.724182416532079 0.388537671145838 0.137464744788375 0.072021756523183
20 20 Honduras HON e 65.81 1.4244 1.2921 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.87 2.2727 0.9986 0.0 1.0 0.250000869998355 0.114701038009089 0.050248672789364 0.011812426015298
2 2 Argentina ARG f 90.14 2.9531 0.4932 1.0 1.0 0.749999130001735 0.53218255418815 0.364030428643417 0.16835308443892
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.46 2.2777 0.9573 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 21 Iran IRN f 69.34 1.1127 0.822 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 77.2 1.6936 0.7807 0.0 1.0 0.275817583468004 0.087272425928185 0.015535198872263 0.004723829602566
17 17 Germany GER g 88.61 3.1728 0.793 0.8477 0.9967 0.773792894117589 0.468529253364974 0.201668602479849 0.112849047750733
18 18 Ghana GHA g 79.01 1.9888 0.8654 0.0 0.1974 0.084532159926363 0.024785654612263 0.010295943164596 0.002244564343556
28 28 Portugal POR g 79.15 2.1091 0.9392 0.0 0.0476 0.02066825309152 0.006197498782917 0.002624116468053 0.00058500321415
32 32 USA USA g 78.89 2.1631 0.9962 0.1523 0.7583 0.347850003781503 0.109539218707145 0.038886065627388 0.009143955301053
1 1 Algeria ALG h 74.34 2.0441 1.2336 0.0322 0.634 0.150295856941254 0.044971512716055 0.007477503971044 0.001927710151786
4 4 Belgium BEL h 83.12 2.1376 0.6547 0.9678 1.0 0.531061138358501 0.193373330534157 0.093310128448536 0.026153841748529
24 24 South Korea KOR h 64.88 1.6581 1.5493 0.0 0.0071 0.00086798664282 0.000160660986728 1.321424623e-05 2.114458468e-06
29 29 Russia RUS h 76.98 1.464 0.6271 0.0 0.3589 0.090931707140327 0.029749181024459 0.005115936691736 0.001500240256605

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140626-095930" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);