FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by spi_defense

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense ▼ win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
10 Colombia COL c 88.17 2.5118 0.4427 1.0 1.0 0.633888546441141 0.197547532386367 0.103908418122418 0.055070056744093
2 Argentina ARG f 90.14 2.9531 0.4932 1.0 1.0 0.749999130001735 0.53218255418815 0.364030428643417 0.16835308443892
6 Brazil BRA a 91.24 3.2325 0.5205 1.0 1.0 0.778085492334867 0.612296527190661 0.470877739694673 0.362102593679645
25 Mexico MEX a 80.03 1.6198 0.5329 0.0 1.0 0.309494772961891 0.170683083147933 0.056696522818137 0.012807157446668
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.46 1.4994 0.5545 1.0 1.0 0.563656080705206 0.195179103282941 0.060730069237579 0.012699562455977
19 Greece GRE c 74.48 1.1804 0.5712 0.0 1.0 0.436343919294788 0.126280336263112 0.032543106232251 0.005459485261523
16 France FRA e 87.68 2.6496 0.5759 1.0 1.0 0.724182416532079 0.388537671145838 0.137464744788375 0.072021756523183
15 Spain ESP b 86.28 2.5038 0.6197 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
29 Russia RUS h 76.98 1.464 0.6271 0.0 0.3589 0.090931707140327 0.029749181024459 0.005115936691736 0.001500240256605
7 Chile CHI b 86.58 2.5767 0.637 0.0 1.0 0.221914507665133 0.115003237986451 0.056925285211124 0.028432478378577
4 Belgium BEL h 83.12 2.1376 0.6547 0.9678 1.0 0.531061138358501 0.193373330534157 0.093310128448536 0.026153841748529
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.22 1.8419 0.6747 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
26 Netherlands NED b 87.39 2.809 0.7022 1.0 1.0 0.69050522703829 0.507857477306055 0.262092764809487 0.100320703760493
14 England ENG d 81.15 2.0557 0.7531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
31 Uruguay URU d 82.11 2.1995 0.7766 0.0 1.0 0.366111453558818 0.075152702436533 0.02955553768338 0.011790388468188
22 Italy ITA d 78.52 1.818 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
27 Nigeria NGA f 77.2 1.6936 0.7807 0.0 1.0 0.275817583468004 0.087272425928185 0.015535198872263 0.004723829602566
17 Germany GER g 88.61 3.1728 0.793 0.8477 0.9967 0.773792894117589 0.468529253364974 0.201668602479849 0.112849047750733
21 Iran IRN f 69.34 1.1127 0.822 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 Ghana GHA g 79.01 1.9888 0.8654 0.0 0.1974 0.084532159926363 0.024785654612263 0.010295943164596 0.002244564343556
28 Portugal POR g 79.15 2.1091 0.9392 0.0 0.0476 0.02066825309152 0.006197498782917 0.002624116468053 0.00058500321415
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.46 2.2777 0.9573 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Croatia CRO a 77.94 2.0413 0.9788 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
32 USA USA g 78.89 2.1631 0.9962 0.1523 0.7583 0.347850003781503 0.109539218707145 0.038886065627388 0.009143955301053
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.87 2.2727 0.9986 0.0 1.0 0.250000869998355 0.114701038009089 0.050248672789364 0.011812426015298
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.08 2.2328 1.1047 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 68.13 1.4486 1.1702 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Algeria ALG h 74.34 2.0441 1.2336 0.0322 0.634 0.150295856941254 0.044971512716055 0.007477503971044 0.001927710151786
20 Honduras HON e 65.81 1.4244 1.2921 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 Japan JPN c 72.54 2.0196 1.3385 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Australia AUS b 67.47 1.685 1.406 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 South Korea KOR h 64.88 1.6581 1.5493 0.0 0.0071 0.00086798664282 0.000160660986728 1.321424623e-05 2.114458468e-06

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140626-095930" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);