FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by semi

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi ▼ cup win
3 Australia AUS b 67.47 1.685 1.406 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.46 2.2777 0.9573 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.08 2.2328 1.1047 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 68.13 1.4486 1.1702 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Croatia CRO a 77.94 2.0413 0.9788 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.22 1.8419 0.6747 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.15 2.0557 0.7531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 86.28 2.5038 0.6197 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 Ghana GHA g 79.01 1.9888 0.8654 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 Honduras HON e 65.81 1.4244 1.2921 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 Iran IRN f 69.34 1.1127 0.822 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 Italy ITA d 78.52 1.818 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 Japan JPN c 72.54 2.0196 1.3385 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
28 Portugal POR g 79.15 2.1091 0.9392 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 South Korea KOR h 64.88 1.6581 1.5493 0.0 0.0073 0.00073001259109 0.000135122520811 1.1113726472e-05 1.848474541e-06
29 Russia RUS h 76.98 1.464 0.6271 0.0 0.3634 0.079148829371719 0.025894299435286 0.004453016588217 0.00133945474089
1 Algeria ALG h 74.34 2.0441 1.2336 0.0355 0.6293 0.130820481202701 0.038845541900482 0.006649939095973 0.001722958825806
31 Uruguay URU d 82.11 2.1995 0.7766 0.0 1.0 0.366111453558818 0.075152702436533 0.028424684030317 0.01149794434967
27 Nigeria NGA f 77.2 1.6936 0.7807 0.0 1.0 0.275817583468004 0.078978409949777 0.014058796832284 0.004367390293846
7 Chile CHI b 86.58 2.5767 0.637 0.0 1.0 0.221914507665133 0.115003237986451 0.055198608762852 0.027865328191855
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.87 2.2727 0.9986 0.0 1.0 0.250000869998355 0.120314379784207 0.052707787188047 0.012292188281926
19 Greece GRE c 74.48 1.1804 0.5712 0.0 1.0 0.436343919294788 0.126280336263112 0.033407997134894 0.005537500740585
32 USA USA g 78.89 2.1631 0.9962 0.0 1.0 0.432371129452369 0.127710392878757 0.053507118581839 0.0117193046522
25 Mexico MEX a 80.03 1.6198 0.5329 0.0 1.0 0.309494772961891 0.170683083147933 0.05797920857079 0.012971939737062
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.46 1.4994 0.5545 1.0 1.0 0.563656080705206 0.195179103282941 0.062167189520556 0.012867903659916
10 Colombia COL c 88.17 2.5118 0.4427 1.0 1.0 0.633888546441141 0.197547532386367 0.101012909137928 0.054056001996794
4 Belgium BEL h 83.12 2.1376 0.6547 0.9645 1.0 0.564153886672896 0.205345152396897 0.099184642398982 0.027647579736209
16 France FRA e 87.68 2.6496 0.5759 1.0 1.0 0.724182416532079 0.365609258203619 0.12935266540053 0.068547533100018
17 Germany GER g 88.61 3.1728 0.793 1.0 1.0 0.79277566070905 0.488903245997099 0.19603395759703 0.114566029605304
26 Netherlands NED b 87.39 2.809 0.7022 1.0 1.0 0.69050522703829 0.507857477306055 0.266111173109578 0.101305307781781
2 Argentina ARG f 90.14 2.9531 0.4932 1.0 1.0 0.749999130001735 0.54826419693304 0.375030802961636 0.172833038158762
6 Brazil BRA a 91.24 3.2325 0.5205 1.0 1.0 0.778085492334867 0.612296527190661 0.464708389361942 0.358860747672839

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140626-180150" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);