FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by spi_defense

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense ▼ win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
10 Colombia COL c 88.17 2.5118 0.4427 1.0 1.0 0.633888546441141 0.197547532386367 0.101012909137928 0.054056001996794
2 Argentina ARG f 90.14 2.9531 0.4932 1.0 1.0 0.749999130001735 0.54826419693304 0.375030802961636 0.172833038158762
6 Brazil BRA a 91.24 3.2325 0.5205 1.0 1.0 0.778085492334867 0.612296527190661 0.464708389361942 0.358860747672839
25 Mexico MEX a 80.03 1.6198 0.5329 0.0 1.0 0.309494772961891 0.170683083147933 0.05797920857079 0.012971939737062
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.46 1.4994 0.5545 1.0 1.0 0.563656080705206 0.195179103282941 0.062167189520556 0.012867903659916
19 Greece GRE c 74.48 1.1804 0.5712 0.0 1.0 0.436343919294788 0.126280336263112 0.033407997134894 0.005537500740585
16 France FRA e 87.68 2.6496 0.5759 1.0 1.0 0.724182416532079 0.365609258203619 0.12935266540053 0.068547533100018
15 Spain ESP b 86.28 2.5038 0.6197 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
29 Russia RUS h 76.98 1.464 0.6271 0.0 0.3634 0.079148829371719 0.025894299435286 0.004453016588217 0.00133945474089
7 Chile CHI b 86.58 2.5767 0.637 0.0 1.0 0.221914507665133 0.115003237986451 0.055198608762852 0.027865328191855
4 Belgium BEL h 83.12 2.1376 0.6547 0.9645 1.0 0.564153886672896 0.205345152396897 0.099184642398982 0.027647579736209
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.22 1.8419 0.6747 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
26 Netherlands NED b 87.39 2.809 0.7022 1.0 1.0 0.69050522703829 0.507857477306055 0.266111173109578 0.101305307781781
14 England ENG d 81.15 2.0557 0.7531 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
31 Uruguay URU d 82.11 2.1995 0.7766 0.0 1.0 0.366111453558818 0.075152702436533 0.028424684030317 0.01149794434967
22 Italy ITA d 78.52 1.818 0.7794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
27 Nigeria NGA f 77.2 1.6936 0.7807 0.0 1.0 0.275817583468004 0.078978409949777 0.014058796832284 0.004367390293846
17 Germany GER g 88.61 3.1728 0.793 1.0 1.0 0.79277566070905 0.488903245997099 0.19603395759703 0.114566029605304
21 Iran IRN f 69.34 1.1127 0.822 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 Ghana GHA g 79.01 1.9888 0.8654 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
28 Portugal POR g 79.15 2.1091 0.9392 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.46 2.2777 0.9573 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Croatia CRO a 77.94 2.0413 0.9788 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
32 USA USA g 78.89 2.1631 0.9962 0.0 1.0 0.432371129452369 0.127710392878757 0.053507118581839 0.0117193046522
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.87 2.2727 0.9986 0.0 1.0 0.250000869998355 0.120314379784207 0.052707787188047 0.012292188281926
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.08 2.2328 1.1047 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 68.13 1.4486 1.1702 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Algeria ALG h 74.34 2.0441 1.2336 0.0355 0.6293 0.130820481202701 0.038845541900482 0.006649939095973 0.001722958825806
20 Honduras HON e 65.81 1.4244 1.2921 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 Japan JPN c 72.54 2.0196 1.3385 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Australia AUS b 67.47 1.685 1.406 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 South Korea KOR h 64.88 1.6581 1.5493 0.0 0.0073 0.00073001259109 0.000135122520811 1.1113726472e-05 1.848474541e-06

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140626-180150" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);