FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by group

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group ▼ spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
6 Brazil BRA a 90.61 3.0717 0.5063 1 1 1.0 0.715980738515893 0.540656726541656 0.414499994769081
9 Cameroon CMR a 68.12 1.4612 1.184 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Croatia CRO a 77.86 2.0413 0.9876 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
25 Mexico MEX a 80.03 1.621 0.5351 0 1 0.278725713754903 0.157366670379559 0.048838601177634 0.008485392456523
3 Australia AUS b 67.38 1.6908 1.4203 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Chile CHI b 86.37 2.5118 0.6179 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 86.2 2.4975 0.6242 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
26 Netherlands NED b 87.38 2.8059 0.7025 1 1 0.721274286245097 0.557842707595797 0.291122760156642 0.100907013065441
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.36 2.249 1.098 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 Colombia COL c 89.42 2.6378 0.388 1 1 1.0 0.284019261484107 0.156298938694389 0.089245326321851
19 Greece GRE c 74.59 1.1788 0.5647 0 1 0.43039319457708 0.108442946646931 0.024714415713127 0.002883165006202
23 Japan JPN c 72.8 2.0277 1.3298 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.18 1.479 0.5604 1 1 0.56960680542292 0.176347675377712 0.049641434727068 0.007597541475884
14 England ENG d 81.05 2.0535 0.7613 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 Italy ITA d 78.4 1.8135 0.7866 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
31 Uruguay URU d 80.86 2.0933 0.8031 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.11 1.7828 0.6434 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 87.62 2.6444 0.5791 1 1 0.75746452914177 0.377900471238731 0.112755582565703 0.058754601034531
20 Honduras HON e 65.76 1.4288 1.3019 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.74 2.2656 1.0062 0 1 0.222293930642383 0.106742391683657 0.044385182424112 0.00818398547004
2 Argentina ARG f 89.97 2.9269 0.498 1 1 0.777706069357617 0.589400239690089 0.407460556013508 0.175345413556568
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.42 2.2764 0.9622 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 Iran IRN f 69.42 1.1062 0.8143 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
27 Nigeria NGA f 77.12 1.6969 0.7906 0 1 0.24253547085823 0.061192116585356 0.007065955468056 0.001921768946811
17 Germany GER g 88.66 3.058 0.7217 1 1 0.825494266941075 0.511576258154615 0.178255678484572 0.103086037720042
18 Ghana GHA g 78.32 1.9857 0.9148 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
28 Portugal POR g 79.88 2.1723 0.9317 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
32 USA USA g 78.62 2.0268 0.9228 0 1 0.411581467321582 0.10667899486164 0.041240363663643 0.006830083657173
1 Algeria ALG h 74.96 2.0782 1.2191 0 1 0.174505733058925 0.049331154021298 0.004967118245624 0.001244709183276
4 Belgium BEL h 83.04 2.0537 0.607 1 1 0.588418532678418 0.197178373764613 0.092596686124266 0.021014967336576
24 South Korea KOR h 64.79 1.5064 1.4285 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
29 Russia RUS h 76.4 1.4348 0.6451 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140629-091813" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" INTEGER,
  "sixteen" INTEGER,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);