FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by win

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win ▼
3 Australia AUS b 67.38 1.6908 1.4203 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.42 2.2764 0.9622 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Chile CHI b 86.37 2.5118 0.6179 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.36 2.249 1.098 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 68.12 1.4612 1.184 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Croatia CRO a 77.86 2.0413 0.9876 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.11 1.7828 0.6434 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.05 2.0535 0.7613 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Spain ESP b 86.2 2.4975 0.6242 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 Ghana GHA g 78.32 1.9857 0.9148 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 Honduras HON e 65.76 1.4288 1.3019 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 Iran IRN f 69.42 1.1062 0.8143 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 Italy ITA d 78.4 1.8135 0.7866 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 Japan JPN c 72.8 2.0277 1.3298 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 South Korea KOR h 64.79 1.5064 1.4285 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
28 Portugal POR g 79.88 2.1723 0.9317 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
29 Russia RUS h 76.4 1.4348 0.6451 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
31 Uruguay URU d 80.86 2.0933 0.8031 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Algeria ALG h 74.96 2.0782 1.2191 0 1 0.174505733058925 0.049331154021298 0.004967118245624 0.001244709183276
27 Nigeria NGA f 77.12 1.6969 0.7906 0 1 0.24253547085823 0.061192116585356 0.007065955468056 0.001921768946811
19 Greece GRE c 74.59 1.1788 0.5647 0 1 0.43039319457708 0.108442946646931 0.024714415713127 0.002883165006202
32 USA USA g 78.62 2.0268 0.9228 0 1 0.411581467321582 0.10667899486164 0.041240363663643 0.006830083657173
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.18 1.479 0.5604 1 1 0.56960680542292 0.176347675377712 0.049641434727068 0.007597541475884
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.74 2.2656 1.0062 0 1 0.222293930642383 0.106742391683657 0.044385182424112 0.00818398547004
25 Mexico MEX a 80.03 1.621 0.5351 0 1 0.278725713754903 0.157366670379559 0.048838601177634 0.008485392456523
4 Belgium BEL h 83.04 2.0537 0.607 1 1 0.588418532678418 0.197178373764613 0.092596686124266 0.021014967336576
16 France FRA e 87.62 2.6444 0.5791 1 1 0.75746452914177 0.377900471238731 0.112755582565703 0.058754601034531
10 Colombia COL c 89.42 2.6378 0.388 1 1 1.0 0.284019261484107 0.156298938694389 0.089245326321851
26 Netherlands NED b 87.38 2.8059 0.7025 1 1 0.721274286245097 0.557842707595797 0.291122760156642 0.100907013065441
17 Germany GER g 88.66 3.058 0.7217 1 1 0.825494266941075 0.511576258154615 0.178255678484572 0.103086037720042
2 Argentina ARG f 89.97 2.9269 0.498 1 1 0.777706069357617 0.589400239690089 0.407460556013508 0.175345413556568
6 Brazil BRA a 90.61 3.0717 0.5063 1 1 1.0 0.715980738515893 0.540656726541656 0.414499994769081

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140629-091813" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" INTEGER,
  "sixteen" INTEGER,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);