2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140629-091813.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by rowid descending

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▲ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
32 32 USA USA g 78.62 2.0268 0.9228 0 1 0.411581467321582 0.10667899486164 0.041240363663643 0.006830083657173
31 31 Uruguay URU d 80.86 2.0933 0.8031 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.74 2.2656 1.0062 0 1 0.222293930642383 0.106742391683657 0.044385182424112 0.00818398547004
29 29 Russia RUS h 76.4 1.4348 0.6451 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
28 28 Portugal POR g 79.88 2.1723 0.9317 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 77.12 1.6969 0.7906 0 1 0.24253547085823 0.061192116585356 0.007065955468056 0.001921768946811
26 26 Netherlands NED b 87.38 2.8059 0.7025 1 1 0.721274286245097 0.557842707595797 0.291122760156642 0.100907013065441
25 25 Mexico MEX a 80.03 1.621 0.5351 0 1 0.278725713754903 0.157366670379559 0.048838601177634 0.008485392456523
24 24 South Korea KOR h 64.79 1.5064 1.4285 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 23 Japan JPN c 72.8 2.0277 1.3298 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 22 Italy ITA d 78.4 1.8135 0.7866 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 21 Iran IRN f 69.42 1.1062 0.8143 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 20 Honduras HON e 65.76 1.4288 1.3019 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.59 1.1788 0.5647 0 1 0.43039319457708 0.108442946646931 0.024714415713127 0.002883165006202
18 18 Ghana GHA g 78.32 1.9857 0.9148 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17 17 Germany GER g 88.66 3.058 0.7217 1 1 0.825494266941075 0.511576258154615 0.178255678484572 0.103086037720042
16 16 France FRA e 87.62 2.6444 0.5791 1 1 0.75746452914177 0.377900471238731 0.112755582565703 0.058754601034531
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.2 2.4975 0.6242 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 14 England ENG d 81.05 2.0535 0.7613 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.11 1.7828 0.6434 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 12 Croatia CRO a 77.86 2.0413 0.9876 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.18 1.479 0.5604 1 1 0.56960680542292 0.176347675377712 0.049641434727068 0.007597541475884
10 10 Colombia COL c 89.42 2.6378 0.388 1 1 1.0 0.284019261484107 0.156298938694389 0.089245326321851
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 68.12 1.4612 1.184 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.36 2.249 1.098 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.37 2.5118 0.6179 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 6 Brazil BRA a 90.61 3.0717 0.5063 1 1 1.0 0.715980738515893 0.540656726541656 0.414499994769081
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.42 2.2764 0.9622 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 4 Belgium BEL h 83.04 2.0537 0.607 1 1 0.588418532678418 0.197178373764613 0.092596686124266 0.021014967336576
3 3 Australia AUS b 67.38 1.6908 1.4203 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.97 2.9269 0.498 1 1 0.777706069357617 0.589400239690089 0.407460556013508 0.175345413556568
1 1 Algeria ALG h 74.96 2.0782 1.2191 0 1 0.174505733058925 0.049331154021298 0.004967118245624 0.001244709183276

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140629-091813" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" INTEGER,
  "sixteen" INTEGER,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);