2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140630-223910.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header	Definition
`spi`	Soccer Power Index
`spi_offense`	Soccer Power Index offensive rating
`spi_defense`	Soccer Power Index defensive rating
`win_group`	Change of coming in first place in the group stage
`sixteen`	Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
`quarter`	Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
`semi`	Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
`cup`	Chance of making it to the final game
`win`	Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by group

descending

✎ View and edit SQL

This data as json, CSV (advanced)

Link	rowid	country	country_id	group ▼	spi	spi_offense	spi_defense	win_group	sixteen	quarter	semi	cup	win
6	6	Brazil	BRA	a	90.61	3.0736	0.5061	1	1	1.0	0.715877331852636	0.52609348645167	0.396080329474175
9	9	Cameroon	CMR	a	68.1	1.4603	1.1834	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12	12	Croatia	CRO	a	77.87	2.0393	0.9843	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
25	25	Mexico	MEX	a	79.9	1.63	0.5497	0	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	3	Australia	AUS	b	67.43	1.6909	1.4162	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	7	Chile	CHI	b	86.39	2.5145	0.6159	0	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
15	15	Spain	ESP	b	86.27	2.4989	0.6176	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
26	26	Netherlands	NED	b	87.77	2.8637	0.6965	1	1	1.0	0.7626648354409291	0.40917661519122706	0.14734554047628698
8	8	Ivory Coast	CIV	c	78.4	2.251	1.0953	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10	10	Colombia	COL	c	89.43	2.6381	0.3859	1	1	1.0	0.284122668147364	0.147722320846316	0.081305166666452
19	19	Greece	GRE	c	74.85	1.1864	0.5541	0	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
23	23	Japan	JPN	c	72.85	2.0303	1.3274	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11	11	Costa Rica	CRC	d	78.13	1.5071	0.583	1	1	1.0	0.23733516455907103	0.066832245797096	0.010130618103847999
14	14	England	ENG	d	81.04	2.0534	0.7611	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
22	22	Italy	ITA	d	78.39	1.8134	0.7858	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
31	31	Uruguay	URU	d	80.87	2.0924	0.8006	0	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13	13	Ecuador	ECU	e	80.12	1.7802	0.6397	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
16	16	France	FRA	e	87.62	2.6447	0.5786	1	1	1.0	0.439455608982122	0.130994876425978	0.06535362542513401
20	20	Honduras	HON	e	65.74	1.4357	1.308	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
30	30	Switzerland	SUI	e	79.73	2.2659	1.0059	0	1	0.222313840551778	0.10673411458882401	0.037245381629818004	0.006818953480146
2	2	Argentina	ARG	f	89.96	2.9275	0.4981	1	1	0.7776861594482221	0.589321383635266	0.372979616414489	0.160608144646944
5	5	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BIH	f	80.41	2.2765	0.9615	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
21	21	Iran	IRN	f	69.41	1.1067	0.8145	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
27	27	Nigeria	NGA	f	77.11	1.696	0.7895	0	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
17	17	Germany	GER	g	88.65	3.0589	0.7214	1	1	1.0	0.5605443910178779	0.19518931627603603	0.10875993561007302
18	18	Ghana	GHA	g	78.32	1.9857	0.9136	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
28	28	Portugal	POR	g	79.88	2.1724	0.9304	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
32	32	USA	USA	g	78.6	2.0285	0.9242	0	1	0.41127960402157104	0.10656275909963	0.034223308651402	0.005617043875399
1	1	Algeria	ALG	h	74.95	2.0782	1.2187	0	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	4	Belgium	BEL	h	83.04	2.0551	0.607	1	1	0.588720395978429	0.197381742676281	0.07954283231596901	0.017980642241541
24	24	South Korea	KOR	h	64.81	1.5079	1.4276	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
29	29	Russia	RUS	h	76.4	1.4356	0.6446	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Advanced export

JSON shape: default, array, newline-delimited

CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140630-223910" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" INTEGER,
  "sixteen" INTEGER,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);