2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140630-223910.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by quarter

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter ▼ semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 74.95 2.0782 1.2187 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 3 Australia AUS b 67.43 1.6909 1.4162 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.41 2.2765 0.9615 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.39 2.5145 0.6159 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.4 2.251 1.0953 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 68.1 1.4603 1.1834 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 12 Croatia CRO a 77.87 2.0393 0.9843 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.12 1.7802 0.6397 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 14 England ENG d 81.04 2.0534 0.7611 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.27 2.4989 0.6176 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 18 Ghana GHA g 78.32 1.9857 0.9136 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.85 1.1864 0.5541 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 20 Honduras HON e 65.74 1.4357 1.308 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 21 Iran IRN f 69.41 1.1067 0.8145 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 22 Italy ITA d 78.39 1.8134 0.7858 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 23 Japan JPN c 72.85 2.0303 1.3274 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 24 South Korea KOR h 64.81 1.5079 1.4276 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
25 25 Mexico MEX a 79.9 1.63 0.5497 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 77.11 1.696 0.7895 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
28 28 Portugal POR g 79.88 2.1724 0.9304 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
29 29 Russia RUS h 76.4 1.4356 0.6446 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
31 31 Uruguay URU d 80.87 2.0924 0.8006 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.73 2.2659 1.0059 0 1 0.222313840551778 0.106734114588824 0.037245381629818 0.006818953480146
32 32 USA USA g 78.6 2.0285 0.9242 0 1 0.411279604021571 0.10656275909963 0.034223308651402 0.005617043875399
4 4 Belgium BEL h 83.04 2.0551 0.607 1 1 0.588720395978429 0.197381742676281 0.079542832315969 0.017980642241541
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.96 2.9275 0.4981 1 1 0.777686159448222 0.589321383635266 0.372979616414489 0.160608144646944
6 6 Brazil BRA a 90.61 3.0736 0.5061 1 1 1.0 0.715877331852636 0.52609348645167 0.396080329474175
10 10 Colombia COL c 89.43 2.6381 0.3859 1 1 1.0 0.284122668147364 0.147722320846316 0.081305166666452
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.13 1.5071 0.583 1 1 1.0 0.237335164559071 0.066832245797096 0.010130618103848
16 16 France FRA e 87.62 2.6447 0.5786 1 1 1.0 0.439455608982122 0.130994876425978 0.065353625425134
17 17 Germany GER g 88.65 3.0589 0.7214 1 1 1.0 0.560544391017878 0.195189316276036 0.108759935610073
26 26 Netherlands NED b 87.77 2.8637 0.6965 1 1 1.0 0.762664835440929 0.409176615191227 0.147345540476287

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140630-223910" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" INTEGER,
  "sixteen" INTEGER,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);