2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140630-223910.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid country country_id group spi ▼ spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
24 South Korea KOR h 64.81 1.5079 1.4276 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 Honduras HON e 65.74 1.4357 1.308 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Australia AUS b 67.43 1.6909 1.4162 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Cameroon CMR a 68.1 1.4603 1.1834 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 Iran IRN f 69.41 1.1067 0.8145 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 Japan JPN c 72.85 2.0303 1.3274 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19 Greece GRE c 74.85 1.1864 0.5541 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Algeria ALG h 74.95 2.0782 1.2187 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
29 Russia RUS h 76.4 1.4356 0.6446 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
27 Nigeria NGA f 77.11 1.696 0.7895 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Croatia CRO a 77.87 2.0393 0.9843 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.13 1.5071 0.583 1 1 1.0 0.23733516455907103 0.066832245797096 0.010130618103847999
18 Ghana GHA g 78.32 1.9857 0.9136 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 Italy ITA d 78.39 1.8134 0.7858 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.4 2.251 1.0953 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
32 USA USA g 78.6 2.0285 0.9242 0 1 0.41127960402157104 0.10656275909963 0.034223308651402 0.005617043875399
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.73 2.2659 1.0059 0 1 0.222313840551778 0.10673411458882401 0.037245381629818004 0.006818953480146
28 Portugal POR g 79.88 2.1724 0.9304 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
25 Mexico MEX a 79.9 1.63 0.5497 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.12 1.7802 0.6397 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.41 2.2765 0.9615 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
31 Uruguay URU d 80.87 2.0924 0.8006 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.04 2.0534 0.7611 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 83.04 2.0551 0.607 1 1 0.588720395978429 0.197381742676281 0.07954283231596901 0.017980642241541
15 Spain ESP b 86.27 2.4989 0.6176 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Chile CHI b 86.39 2.5145 0.6159 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 France FRA e 87.62 2.6447 0.5786 1 1 1.0 0.439455608982122 0.130994876425978 0.06535362542513401
26 Netherlands NED b 87.77 2.8637 0.6965 1 1 1.0 0.7626648354409291 0.40917661519122706 0.14734554047628698
17 Germany GER g 88.65 3.0589 0.7214 1 1 1.0 0.5605443910178779 0.19518931627603603 0.10875993561007302
10 Colombia COL c 89.43 2.6381 0.3859 1 1 1.0 0.284122668147364 0.147722320846316 0.081305166666452
2 Argentina ARG f 89.96 2.9275 0.4981 1 1 0.7776861594482221 0.589321383635266 0.372979616414489 0.160608144646944
6 Brazil BRA a 90.61 3.0736 0.5061 1 1 1.0 0.715877331852636 0.52609348645167 0.396080329474175

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140630-223910" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" INTEGER,
  "sixteen" INTEGER,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);
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