FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows sorted by rowid descending

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▲ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
32 USA USA g 78.6 2.0285 0.9242 0 1 0.411279604021571 0.10656275909963 0.034223308651402 0.005617043875399
31 Uruguay URU d 80.87 2.0924 0.8006 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
30 Switzerland SUI e 79.73 2.2659 1.0059 0 1 0.222313840551778 0.106734114588824 0.037245381629818 0.006818953480146
29 Russia RUS h 76.4 1.4356 0.6446 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
28 Portugal POR g 79.88 2.1724 0.9304 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
27 Nigeria NGA f 77.11 1.696 0.7895 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
26 Netherlands NED b 87.77 2.8637 0.6965 1 1 1.0 0.762664835440929 0.409176615191227 0.147345540476287
25 Mexico MEX a 79.9 1.63 0.5497 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
24 South Korea KOR h 64.81 1.5079 1.4276 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
23 Japan JPN c 72.85 2.0303 1.3274 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
22 Italy ITA d 78.39 1.8134 0.7858 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21 Iran IRN f 69.41 1.1067 0.8145 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20 Honduras HON e 65.74 1.4357 1.308 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19 Greece GRE c 74.85 1.1864 0.5541 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18 Ghana GHA g 78.32 1.9857 0.9136 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17 Germany GER g 88.65 3.0589 0.7214 1 1 1.0 0.560544391017878 0.195189316276036 0.108759935610073
16 France FRA e 87.62 2.6447 0.5786 1 1 1.0 0.439455608982122 0.130994876425978 0.065353625425134
15 Spain ESP b 86.27 2.4989 0.6176 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 England ENG d 81.04 2.0534 0.7611 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Ecuador ECU e 80.12 1.7802 0.6397 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Croatia CRO a 77.87 2.0393 0.9843 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.13 1.5071 0.583 1 1 1.0 0.237335164559071 0.066832245797096 0.010130618103848
10 Colombia COL c 89.43 2.6381 0.3859 1 1 1.0 0.284122668147364 0.147722320846316 0.081305166666452
9 Cameroon CMR a 68.1 1.4603 1.1834 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.4 2.251 1.0953 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Chile CHI b 86.39 2.5145 0.6159 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 Brazil BRA a 90.61 3.0736 0.5061 1 1 1.0 0.715877331852636 0.52609348645167 0.396080329474175
5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.41 2.2765 0.9615 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Belgium BEL h 83.04 2.0551 0.607 1 1 0.588720395978429 0.197381742676281 0.079542832315969 0.017980642241541
3 Australia AUS b 67.43 1.6909 1.4162 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Argentina ARG f 89.96 2.9275 0.4981 1 1 0.777686159448222 0.589321383635266 0.372979616414489 0.160608144646944
1 Algeria ALG h 74.95 2.0782 1.2187 0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140630-223910" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" INTEGER,
  "sixteen" INTEGER,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);