2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140708-215459.csv

FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header	Definition
`spi`	Soccer Power Index
`spi_offense`	Soccer Power Index offensive rating
`spi_defense`	Soccer Power Index defensive rating
`win_group`	Change of coming in first place in the group stage
`sixteen`	Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
`quarter`	Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
`semi`	Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
`cup`	Chance of making it to the final game
`win`	Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub

32 rows sorted by spi

descending

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Link	rowid	country	country_id	group	spi ▼	spi_offense	spi_defense	win_group	sixteen	quarter	semi	cup	win
24	24	South Korea	KOR	h	65.25	1.5281	1.4167	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
20	20	Honduras	HON	e	65.86	1.4519	1.314	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
3	3	Australia	AUS	b	67.52	1.7067	1.422	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
9	9	Cameroon	CMR	a	68.41	1.4795	1.1795	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
21	21	Iran	IRN	f	69.4	1.1186	0.8245	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
23	23	Japan	JPN	c	72.95	2.0423	1.3278	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
19	19	Greece	GRE	c	74.87	1.1943	0.5576	0	1	0	0	0.0	0.0
1	1	Algeria	ALG	h	75.69	2.0377	1.1355	0	1	0	0	0.0	0.0
27	27	Nigeria	NGA	f	76.23	1.6538	0.8162	0	1	0	0	0.0	0.0
29	29	Russia	RUS	h	76.55	1.4494	0.6437	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
12	12	Croatia	CRO	a	77.96	2.0428	0.9782	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
32	32	USA	USA	g	78.21	2.0085	0.9359999999999999	0	1	0	0	0.0	0.0
8	8	Ivory Coast	CIV	c	78.37	2.2488	1.0943	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
18	18	Ghana	GHA	g	78.42	2.0117	0.9234	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
22	22	Italy	ITA	d	78.43	1.8233	0.7883	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
11	11	Costa Rica	CRC	d	78.46	1.4291	0.5031	1	1	1	0	0.0	0.0
30	30	Switzerland	SUI	e	79.66	2.1888	0.9558	0	1	0	0	0.0	0.0
28	28	Portugal	POR	g	79.8	2.1764	0.9369	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
25	25	Mexico	MEX	a	79.87	1.6376	0.5551	0	1	0	0	0.0	0.0
13	13	Ecuador	ECU	e	80.25	1.801	0.6427	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
5	5	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BIH	f	80.33	2.2892	0.9742	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
31	31	Uruguay	URU	d	80.98	2.1159	0.8061	0	1	0	0	0.0	0.0
14	14	England	ENG	d	81.08	2.0582	0.7589	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
4	4	Belgium	BEL	h	83.0	1.9839	0.5602	1	1	1	0	0.0	0.0
15	15	Spain	ESP	b	86.18	2.5038	0.6248	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0
7	7	Chile	CHI	b	86.37	2.5225	0.6193	0	1	0	0	0.0	0.0
26	26	Netherlands	NED	b	87.46	2.7141	0.6325	1	1	1	1	0.433429662753252	0.195181969286625
16	16	France	FRA	e	87.74	2.577	0.5206	1	1	1	0	0.0	0.0
17	17	Germany	GER	g	88.66	2.9217	0.6331	1	1	1	1	1.0	0.511475952772125
10	10	Colombia	COL	c	89.28	2.6286	0.3912	1	1	1	0	0.0	0.0
2	2	Argentina	ARG	f	89.59	2.7123	0.4067	1	1	1	1	0.5665703372467479	0.293342077941251
6	6	Brazil	BRA	a	90.82	3.1193	0.4996	1	1	1	1	0.0	0.0

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140708-215459" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" INTEGER,
  "sixteen" INTEGER,
  "quarter" INTEGER,
  "semi" INTEGER,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);