2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140613-091928.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 63.41 1.1202 1.1642 0.0607 0.2031 0.038006815497516 0.007915521265885 0.001001969113293 0.000124982295711
2 2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8542 0.4498 0.7352 0.9227 0.665542504863416 0.465661123032166 0.282630242808099 0.128432884294163
3 3 Australia AUS b 69.47 1.638 1.232 0.0157 0.0824 0.009878999477838 0.003003657408335 0.000694081991037 9.8318937742e-05
4 4 Belgium BEL h 82.0 2.1387 0.7397 0.4946 0.777 0.357125970121872 0.150742643733861 0.055860917382368 0.015403932109252
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.32 2.3119 0.9862 0.1628 0.5738 0.268737244214086 0.115049975721807 0.032621711545985 0.009333019595735
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.64 3.3933 0.559 0.9767 0.9978 0.805344361377805 0.696335243450463 0.563121571454567 0.449711460146404
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.71 2.7085 0.7041 0.3455 0.6931 0.32667733161423 0.206968657711822 0.110947120519402 0.042258064718676
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.89 2.2468 1.0484 0.2349 0.5417 0.249365368150565 0.070108336357874 0.02596879396325 0.006274144857765
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 71.33 1.4802 0.9908 0.0069 0.2321 0.050405591757047 0.017092987166252 0.004429141450586 0.000595770561328
10 10 Colombia COL c 85.82 2.1806 0.4532 0.5201 0.7775 0.456812095055681 0.147733906358886 0.072511737282963 0.028025814986671
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.07 1.3226 0.6996 0.0955 0.2639 0.100705775306588 0.018707815062022 0.005454432320267 0.001074430885252
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.13 1.7849 0.9129 0.0012 0.3841 0.106325436580187 0.043431554304457 0.013826832290041 0.002399074706638
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.64 2.0295 0.7689 0.2438 0.5537 0.228582936973891 0.100654180790121 0.031966197427043 0.00864760104926
14 14 England ENG d 83.2 2.2051 0.689 0.3361 0.6242 0.346860330285986 0.119319946983868 0.052517115618842 0.015988916650939
15 15 Spain ESP b 89.13 2.6874 0.4467 0.4827 0.7983 0.452715968379232 0.308826942160694 0.181452072189229 0.07679131938979
16 16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4862 0.6189 0.5301 0.7987 0.452340317066824 0.244701456702121 0.090801828815173 0.037601747647199
17 17 Germany GER g 88.88 3.194 0.7751 0.676 0.8761 0.680021864404471 0.446686382697243 0.195122916082199 0.107258600145189
18 18 Ghana GHA g 77.22 1.908 0.9282 0.0868 0.3171 0.154560884175294 0.052554696300171 0.015663703298474 0.003239428284436
19 19 Greece GRE c 76.79 1.3365 0.5396 0.1405 0.3828 0.152912833361726 0.038915653752367 0.01239955345119 0.00247612874704
20 20 Honduras HON e 69.6 1.5609 1.162 0.0536 0.195 0.04670930398839 0.013839877679871 0.002949449685515 0.000411207568936
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.63 1.2971 0.8882 0.0337 0.1897 0.056702119280224 0.015281180545223 0.002367053035669 0.000425951210324
22 22 Italy ITA d 79.51 1.9842 0.8202 0.1979 0.4534 0.215707326921434 0.055977841155499 0.020849904187271 0.005311506705272
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.48 2.1293 1.3485 0.1045 0.298 0.10600434088023 0.023287592490571 0.00641330347639 0.001035770545741
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.41 1.69 1.0862 0.1403 0.3846 0.102606254790012 0.028936966016455 0.005459800764003 0.000956896076221
25 25 Mexico MEX a 76.93 1.5518 0.6892 0.0152 0.386 0.110254517143266 0.045648872417609 0.014858901482706 0.002669223301895
26 26 Netherlands NED b 82.5 2.3138 0.8173 0.1561 0.4262 0.138397793670374 0.072842564336308 0.031500114089413 0.009403177126105
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 75.23 1.6678 0.8866 0.0683 0.3138 0.1167642704963 0.038803700768471 0.007883931043447 0.00175736885573
28 28 Portugal POR g 81.0 2.1386 0.8161 0.1466 0.4775 0.266837652959381 0.109180725072894 0.038564089887372 0.010039313001985
29 29 Russia RUS h 79.01 1.6554 0.6238 0.3044 0.6353 0.236682984084582 0.086689617229214 0.024362772705781 0.005830902438272
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 78.09 1.9841 0.9216 0.1725 0.4526 0.164621303116832 0.066322066267332 0.01941172357215 0.0044496689725
31 31 Uruguay URU d 83.33 2.2379 0.6999 0.3705 0.6585 0.371631930037757 0.131798428882976 0.059142202763107 0.018342404517356
32 32 USA USA g 77.42 2.0473 1.0141 0.0906 0.3293 0.164157573966881 0.056979886177162 0.017244814303172 0.003630969670475

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140613-091928" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);