2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140614-180027.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1193 1.1652 0.0605 0.2008 0.037383306138489 0.007780366324619 0.000983321900041 0.000124157564799
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.99 2.8546 0.45 0.7348 0.9261 0.667895509420578 0.465541736986533 0.284790775739534 0.131336724183037
3 3 Australia AUS b 69.0 1.6523 1.2717 0.0017 0.0178 0.001360696795091 0.000387113981452 8.2451610726e-05 1.3396050361e-05
4 4 Belgium BEL h 82.01 2.1377 0.7362 0.4946 0.7787 0.355659896806006 0.150205381384861 0.056112289345843 0.015773837496358
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.33 2.3162 0.9857 0.1631 0.5723 0.26845275221828 0.114949348803066 0.033022621056872 0.009581601579548
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.391 0.5577 0.9665 0.998 0.791787635324908 0.676946154131806 0.54777134642613 0.439730493580775
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.68 2.7208 0.7117 0.3024 0.7751 0.318360822567516 0.200718800105439 0.107849946856928 0.043194899954621
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.84 2.2473 1.0498 0.1765 0.5615 0.258160567735618 0.078911222984808 0.02908366527396 0.006837866736789
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 70.01 1.3521 0.968 0.0008 0.0317 0.006274528306278 0.002037630358431 0.000492328591291 6.4438970079e-05
10 10 Colombia COL c 85.81 2.1793 0.4513 0.7313 0.9375 0.551719053687868 0.165235936005593 0.080773810147694 0.033303425408018
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.13 1.3273 0.6977 0.0949 0.2627 0.096132024615035 0.018320640359521 0.00530702516483 0.001055899547211
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.25 1.8066 0.9186 0.0028 0.3814 0.103994654406579 0.043042344151247 0.013693162446886 0.002441053823921
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.79 2.0336 0.7584 0.2484 0.563 0.234715854680692 0.103772888774276 0.033526850816918 0.009297646520363
14 14 England ENG d 83.16 2.2045 0.6895 0.3467 0.6325 0.342460275448995 0.119746959584041 0.052709022517984 0.016112928607952
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.8 2.6166 0.6364 0.0247 0.248 0.066676508214122 0.040559680800592 0.021621512426909 0.009954881575605
16 16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4875 0.6181 0.5214 0.7896 0.447316650987302 0.24263952825014 0.091721515714973 0.038233781368489
17 17 Germany GER g 88.86 3.1981 0.7783 0.6671 0.8794 0.681767675631685 0.446897388820407 0.200120351360113 0.1101509188919
18 18 Ghana GHA g 77.4 1.9047 0.9113 0.0824 0.3108 0.152338104194489 0.05191435059626 0.015872866815519 0.003361386933248
19 19 Greece GRE c 76.83 1.3401 0.5379 0.0199 0.1866 0.074538393375153 0.022935388234137 0.007289772919523 0.00136048236464
20 20 Honduras HON e 69.73 1.5687 1.1589 0.0572 0.2015 0.048526871021689 0.014153276805787 0.003014308487648 0.000436217716528
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2974 0.8887 0.0355 0.1959 0.059004787344786 0.015831180317173 0.002473817217283 0.00045208824533
22 22 Italy ITA d 79.39 1.9753 0.8202 0.2019 0.4528 0.207623873517644 0.055380437941411 0.020369924561831 0.005171701584096
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.61 2.1362 1.3426 0.0723 0.3144 0.11247672610252 0.026988777335301 0.007501742439723 0.001192184180413
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6916 1.0833 0.1493 0.3937 0.105180186603041 0.029397962690187 0.005674406439492 0.001003690929009
25 25 Mexico MEX a 77.55 1.5331 0.6328 0.0299 0.5889 0.1686089001155 0.071754466411227 0.023828976369959 0.004494649957674
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.94 2.8146 0.7449 0.6712 0.9591 0.54293625426993 0.350099292875127 0.189915835168848 0.071144557672735
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 75.14 1.6667 0.8891 0.0666 0.3057 0.112733023224745 0.037479597258895 0.007648024441233 0.001728196001329
28 28 Portugal POR g 81.07 2.1479 0.8149 0.1573 0.4833 0.272078081051871 0.11206770439934 0.039522059828872 0.010585280264188
29 29 Russia RUS h 79.0 1.656 0.623 0.2956 0.6268 0.232749515182202 0.085694376680162 0.02418353576706 0.005913757628505
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 78.06 1.9812 0.9198 0.173 0.4459 0.161354551101935 0.064845415250417 0.019026045794063 0.004463204386504
31 31 Uruguay URU d 83.23 2.2318 0.7017 0.3565 0.652 0.356889085517208 0.126935154739877 0.056732900688813 0.017738498561604
32 32 USA USA g 77.47 2.0538 1.0128 0.0932 0.3265 0.162843234392228 0.056829496657855 0.017283785662499 0.003746151714368

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140614-180027" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);