2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140615-030217.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1193 1.1652 0.0559 0.1952 0.036463248275172 0.007627300966429 0.00097562306951 0.000124882121
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.99 2.8546 0.45 0.735 0.9172 0.660629954468069 0.460184956260147 0.284739724736969 0.130766936764436
3 3 Australia AUS b 69.0 1.6523 1.2717 0.0016 0.0207 0.001503935246086 0.000450407623995 9.9401984306e-05 1.6079938359e-05
4 4 Belgium BEL h 82.01 2.1377 0.7362 0.4934 0.7823 0.356842945882919 0.150803652463599 0.05693598573061 0.016015632640773
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.33 2.3162 0.9857 0.158 0.5687 0.266717702936508 0.114839223968526 0.033071790579547 0.009625300906162
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.391 0.5577 0.9705 0.9989 0.792943965770741 0.681657020170128 0.552040070442157 0.44376363256949
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.68 2.7208 0.7117 0.3077 0.775 0.321205618127669 0.20815492432426 0.111921160522129 0.044597569099122
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 78.84 2.2473 1.0498 0.2699 0.7742 0.396379971553876 0.119609766162163 0.04416586756294 0.010447787013163
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 70.01 1.3521 0.968 0.0005 0.0291 0.005831286056846 0.002060881510317 0.000514085589499 6.6258036322e-05
10 10 Colombia COL c 85.81 2.1793 0.4513 0.7005 0.9419 0.585853548931339 0.182441719703508 0.089668110378795 0.036123681741152
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 74.13 1.3273 0.6977 0.3458 0.658 0.2412219487186 0.052727843874542 0.015398393901693 0.002861502719701
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.25 1.8066 0.9186 0.002 0.3762 0.102544324508855 0.044992135331431 0.01433397062182 0.002551873548394
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.79 2.0336 0.7584 0.2401 0.5611 0.232707358056438 0.103293391103438 0.033999908607195 0.00939464610077
14 14 England ENG d 83.16 2.2045 0.6895 0.1056 0.3523 0.179409058555315 0.051360686316334 0.022617408704877 0.007734020996818
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.8 2.6166 0.6364 0.0261 0.2462 0.066545385882602 0.041346259759208 0.022058701396314 0.010135521874318
16 16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4875 0.6181 0.5318 0.7966 0.452272040520335 0.245541718898894 0.092710075165583 0.038863629228028
17 17 Germany GER g 88.86 3.1981 0.7783 0.6646 0.874 0.676737118932485 0.443384477006128 0.198299918006956 0.109518143205287
18 18 Ghana GHA g 77.4 1.9047 0.9113 0.0874 0.3161 0.155052069566005 0.05362569609105 0.01651585464863 0.003507122030194
19 19 Greece GRE c 76.83 1.3401 0.5379 0.014 0.1643 0.075305842299625 0.02344626959922 0.007480242042676 0.001390581349981
20 20 Honduras HON e 69.73 1.5687 1.1589 0.0592 0.201 0.049314929003093 0.014676983538555 0.003176639186034 0.000458307618052
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2974 0.8887 0.0365 0.1944 0.058881821843795 0.01598483127087 0.002561555246445 0.000465435950776
22 22 Italy ITA d 79.39 1.9753 0.8202 0.4652 0.7344 0.339271908125368 0.103548937565492 0.038176805969436 0.009038704569221
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.61 2.1362 1.3426 0.0156 0.1196 0.049583014777588 0.013007427812565 0.003607242652747 0.000550672958135
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6916 1.0833 0.1405 0.3917 0.105110983424327 0.030074263842786 0.005774266388563 0.001034305678891
25 25 Mexico MEX a 77.55 1.5331 0.6328 0.027 0.5958 0.17058856421484 0.076437867680686 0.025479977783279 0.004786623622075
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.94 2.8146 0.7449 0.6646 0.9581 0.538836920192285 0.358954434287577 0.19532673673893 0.073113398155013
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 75.14 1.6667 0.8891 0.0705 0.3197 0.117766774792554 0.039444803995714 0.008214720036078 0.001849257293105
28 28 Portugal POR g 81.07 2.1479 0.8149 0.1514 0.4767 0.268176963440895 0.11071862864524 0.039694637395812 0.010602560126864
29 29 Russia RUS h 79.0 1.656 0.623 0.3102 0.6308 0.235694566639917 0.086612436161087 0.025161573546584 0.006066015078891
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 78.06 1.9812 0.9198 0.1689 0.4413 0.161709418379213 0.064974062466622 0.019419116905773 0.004519721396961
31 31 Uruguay URU d 83.23 2.2318 0.7017 0.0834 0.2553 0.132974707038351 0.039803418278596 0.017855123627455 0.006118549670027
32 32 USA USA g 77.47 2.0538 1.0128 0.0966 0.3332 0.165922103838291 0.058213573320894 0.018005310830657 0.003891645998518

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140615-030217" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);