2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140615-180820.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1191 1.1659 0.0579 0.1952 0.036424351061179 0.007688083870117 0.000967940717098 0.000121996504428
2 2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8521 0.4498 0.7378 0.9231 0.669153690629989 0.467292392203027 0.286948436964425 0.132452016586516
3 3 Australia AUS b 69.04 1.6546 1.2727 0.0014 0.0188 0.001502132461494 0.000418420190164 9.8131622681e-05 1.4951622331e-05
4 4 Belgium BEL h 82.06 2.1405 0.7355 0.494 0.7702 0.353980841497851 0.150703956815828 0.056957054477554 0.016005868555175
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.23 2.3098 0.9905 0.1563 0.5714 0.270728131747503 0.113900815290677 0.032274104408168 0.009366052204904
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.3847 0.5572 0.9649 0.9985 0.790992129232638 0.662648723237825 0.535476505970793 0.429391982045405
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.79 2.7203 0.7033 0.3089 0.7775 0.325173610300017 0.205642909932943 0.110696749685558 0.044253875021353
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.17 2.2141 1.0043 0.223 0.7856 0.396564882481183 0.126677410256758 0.047280661787377 0.011073432141097
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 70.05 1.3531 0.9672 0.0005 0.0298 0.0059167607399 0.002030898321476 0.00050165328915 6.60112473e-05
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.69 2.3949 0.4158 0.7583 0.9634 0.639789688891305 0.219128539509661 0.118441762605237 0.0548567708995
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.48 1.5852 0.6767 0.4086 0.7207 0.28570992191835 0.076877203489536 0.025730341431614 0.005516542951911
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.22 1.8052 0.9215 0.0024 0.369 0.100309952319907 0.0430733997738 0.013852461825283 0.002455447825178
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.8 2.0274 0.7549 0.0652 0.2608 0.100697295026801 0.046322113969542 0.016973577804599 0.004362080146485
14 14 England ENG d 82.21 2.1617 0.7381 0.0878 0.3271 0.148682497937961 0.040202561241898 0.016992790784497 0.005524393194063
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.78 2.6112 0.6368 0.0262 0.2454 0.06664887448261 0.03947419375794 0.021011159056282 0.009582440515954
16 16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4866 0.6193 0.5314 0.7922 0.449212657839562 0.242839747796284 0.091540208359797 0.038233900902204
17 17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1972 0.7786 0.6787 0.8802 0.683404028823731 0.451317131423418 0.200905164124469 0.111098091879126
18 18 Ghana GHA g 77.38 1.9044 0.9135 0.0816 0.3018 0.148596878089062 0.051054177131172 0.015596910942501 0.003310390848815
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.29 1.2891 0.6597 0.0083 0.1502 0.061322198355181 0.017558966033765 0.005117412276015 0.000830304489565
20 20 Honduras HON e 70.01 1.5756 1.1482 0.0549 0.1848 0.045816356116653 0.01345857030754 0.002951913875717 0.000430151355833
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2971 0.8897 0.0345 0.1929 0.059689398843651 0.016234538670981 0.002563885808588 0.000461729229478
22 22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.036 0.8097 0.4459 0.7385 0.334496436088353 0.105020969663476 0.040179384711788 0.009978772877724
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.13 2.0751 1.3309 0.0104 0.1008 0.039641256080509 0.010286802933412 0.002769566700282 0.000408562163335
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6883 1.0835 0.1431 0.3966 0.10396660712501 0.029566665341364 0.005646879534984 0.001004713517251
25 25 Mexico MEX a 77.77 1.5407 0.6249 0.0322 0.6027 0.174543629923365 0.076994412010963 0.025790269987319 0.00492105493235
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.92 2.8119 0.747 0.6635 0.9583 0.53491291054009 0.349869734758104 0.190371048475146 0.071277713224981
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 75.07 1.6598 0.8902 0.0714 0.3126 0.117359895673255 0.038948328996699 0.008048709304947 0.001793528735093
28 28 Portugal POR g 80.99 2.1415 0.8184 0.148 0.4785 0.266863465738583 0.109921489140741 0.039100858787322 0.010385546391939
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.98 1.6544 0.625 0.305 0.638 0.236660973203876 0.087296861700774 0.024848188953015 0.006036021482872
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 78.03 1.9791 0.9216 0.3485 0.7622 0.287342574122598 0.113168414197827 0.031614075193615 0.00762583860546
31 31 Uruguay URU d 80.89 2.194 0.8617 0.0577 0.2137 0.093793118247137 0.024094854888293 0.009821768968795 0.003035806838738
32 32 USA USA g 77.76 2.0627 1.0004 0.0917 0.3395 0.170102854460741 0.060286713144002 0.01893042156538 0.004124011063638

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140615-180820" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);