2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140615-210736.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 63.36 1.1191 1.1659 0.0626 0.2008 0.037079586082793 0.007609982912537 0.000989556168147 0.000122486261922
2 2 Argentina ARG f 90.0 2.8521 0.4498 0.7394 0.9284 0.667417941808283 0.465964563580506 0.287156873647858 0.132339770282397
3 3 Australia AUS b 69.04 1.6546 1.2727 0.0009 0.0177 0.001267929622912 0.000340077399676 7.4848664383e-05 1.2384897333e-05
4 4 Belgium BEL h 82.06 2.1405 0.7355 0.483 0.7686 0.351257918903751 0.148426493800987 0.056049126924731 0.015774382531831
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.23 2.3098 0.9905 0.155 0.56 0.253199681924095 0.107760544219434 0.031031346281974 0.008915413982641
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.63 3.3847 0.5572 0.9681 0.9977 0.79030116677807 0.661871926163867 0.533413480688734 0.427828061182055
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.79 2.7203 0.7033 0.3124 0.7731 0.324806391200161 0.206132215828693 0.111074196883983 0.044295114912754
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.17 2.2141 1.0043 0.2149 0.7812 0.394443291769854 0.126698825410418 0.047364833397032 0.01105996761769
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 70.05 1.3531 0.9672 0.0008 0.0341 0.006810689442228 0.002299744362487 0.000577803535572 7.5564789727e-05
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.69 2.3949 0.4158 0.7628 0.9633 0.639781089516653 0.218401782725575 0.11741307115037 0.054528427025748
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.48 1.5852 0.6767 0.4125 0.7258 0.289086237599847 0.077835846234942 0.026116059311217 0.00558368593236
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.22 1.8052 0.9215 0.0022 0.372 0.101130222114206 0.043586190777705 0.013950008820269 0.00247652844029
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.8 2.0274 0.7549 0.0444 0.2387 0.090109393622843 0.041903873022403 0.016000664290565 0.004006939886277
14 14 England ENG d 82.21 2.1617 0.7381 0.0861 0.3253 0.148291098546387 0.039926083808538 0.016772941236131 0.005481207716049
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.78 2.6112 0.6368 0.0255 0.2498 0.067608320669777 0.04006024067834 0.021199229163498 0.009681164521953
16 16 France FRA e 86.13 2.4866 0.6193 0.6826 0.9102 0.527393893045075 0.282731381705679 0.100910067940864 0.043853502819494
17 17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1972 0.7786 0.6699 0.8788 0.680993401913283 0.441399394486248 0.19738524969177 0.1089442256293
18 18 Ghana GHA g 77.38 1.9044 0.9135 0.0852 0.3103 0.152848509303094 0.052057740683054 0.015992663806912 0.003384192658885
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.29 1.2891 0.6597 0.0099 0.1461 0.060052899883549 0.01707761835653 0.004969732943371 0.000807147430666
20 20 Honduras HON e 70.01 1.5756 1.1482 0.0085 0.0796 0.01822765340734 0.005782161655548 0.001451215141085 0.000192538430481
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2971 0.8897 0.0338 0.1925 0.054881901181843 0.014869518987138 0.002352805879504 0.000423647511302
22 22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.036 0.8097 0.445 0.7397 0.333914999305032 0.105065786705718 0.040125727543371 0.009950949877108
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.13 2.0751 1.3309 0.0124 0.1094 0.042909365582678 0.011068367076448 0.002987738269895 0.000439506532687
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6883 1.0835 0.1495 0.3921 0.106446626779272 0.029142364987188 0.005643150380422 0.000991914803874
25 25 Mexico MEX a 77.77 1.5407 0.6249 0.0289 0.5962 0.172415111086183 0.076142064504229 0.025624090389978 0.004888534401279
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.92 2.8119 0.747 0.6612 0.9594 0.535660169086474 0.350129166913431 0.19034242622294 0.071331812167327
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 75.07 1.6598 0.8902 0.0718 0.3191 0.11322499906421 0.0378455059909 0.00787329691675 0.001742129521693
28 28 Portugal POR g 80.99 2.1415 0.8184 0.1484 0.4649 0.260480820569714 0.106317499929621 0.037944469956531 0.010057539892249
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.98 1.6544 0.625 0.3049 0.6385 0.236497309181636 0.085772266620794 0.024652011210064 0.005959218968969
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 78.03 1.9791 0.9216 0.2645 0.7715 0.275544535946337 0.111257184108014 0.033873503805245 0.007731202096071
31 31 Uruguay URU d 80.89 2.194 0.8617 0.0564 0.2092 0.091521017795979 0.023364063053423 0.009428800287401 0.002924122546085
32 32 USA USA g 77.76 2.0627 1.0004 0.0965 0.346 0.174395827266493 0.061159523309941 0.019259009449431 0.0041967147315

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140615-210736" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);