2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140616-185551.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 63.35 1.1188 1.166 0.0604 0.2025 0.033958494636703 0.006073271870059 0.000810254832986 9.5047020537e-05
2 2 Argentina ARG f 90.51 2.901 0.4164 0.9005 0.9789 0.714046146902859 0.526942103896658 0.347532236725768 0.15911700984825
3 3 Australia AUS b 68.84 1.649 1.2804 0.0015 0.0178 0.001461346585946 0.000413483807868 7.9522913787e-05 1.1683349991e-05
4 4 Belgium BEL h 82.1 2.1462 0.7351 0.5024 0.7781 0.361464892274898 0.137801781781261 0.053452233666439 0.014542709591006
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.81 2.3194 0.9513 0.0274 0.5173 0.211318876291601 0.080233239380854 0.019201986189349 0.006470734729127
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.61 3.3851 0.5567 0.9646 0.9987 0.791554133401922 0.663660986433713 0.522623480159611 0.412258410266109
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.77 2.7182 0.702 0.3067 0.7784 0.32280704100429 0.20435595304354 0.104180378433815 0.040918291858245
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.11 2.2107 1.0052 0.2187 0.7867 0.396887007379147 0.127206437141908 0.044135071741319 0.010042402356662
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 70.02 1.3536 0.9693 0.0006 0.0297 0.00594043431144 0.002030470323049 0.000464694760373 5.8379577385e-05
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3961 0.4209 0.7616 0.9624 0.638672887845207 0.217910695564631 0.111005508542382 0.049976402996003
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.4 1.592 0.6859 0.4098 0.7192 0.285826283528858 0.076810516363015 0.02386465245219 0.004951435569137
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.37 1.8136 0.9164 0.0027 0.3869 0.106474639248239 0.04602830491616 0.013800073542905 0.002417127822748
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 79.78 1.9875 0.8012 0.0283 0.1947 0.059604688978297 0.02714079715222 0.010142816985543 0.00232239061935
14 14 England ENG d 82.19 2.1702 0.744 0.0834 0.3207 0.146184546579886 0.039463177425694 0.015529302882161 0.004906335701565
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.75 2.6107 0.6378 0.0269 0.2492 0.067937526034726 0.040235629848062 0.02017844629735 0.008923654881872
16 16 France FRA e 87.49 2.6233 0.5744 0.7085 0.928 0.578281333123 0.311636011559246 0.120472402092563 0.055770521066311
17 17 Germany GER g 88.87 3.1985 0.7763 0.8735 0.9789 0.764111578020474 0.48930461307336 0.203886765892293 0.114718265121014
18 18 Ghana GHA g 77.37 1.9046 0.9141 0.0549 0.358 0.173085410273908 0.051255460807084 0.01696891720826 0.003347794769925
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.35 1.292 0.6577 0.0088 0.1492 0.061267865419609 0.017524671399561 0.004729749289274 0.000750755506159
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.35 1.5065 1.1953 0.0052 0.0728 0.011770176631658 0.003578092772494 0.000866568322376 0.000101001015299
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.6 1.2978 0.8898 0.0232 0.1907 0.048478958985254 0.011702535575324 0.001789024129255 0.000317661532594
22 22 Italy ITA d 80.14 2.0362 0.8086 0.446 0.7458 0.337145321398305 0.106016997739415 0.037798354737165 0.009157158992596
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.12 2.0752 1.3316 0.0109 0.1017 0.039869289538932 0.010315449424544 0.002567346825284 0.000367113606747
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6882 1.0828 0.1401 0.3883 0.09746484836397 0.024151945995352 0.004757862961663 0.000799934047984
25 25 Mexico MEX a 77.47 1.5187 0.6278 0.0321 0.5847 0.167375216819041 0.073210688203739 0.022613443582638 0.004149813704427
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8015 0.7438 0.6649 0.9546 0.536449662594409 0.350573657203849 0.180433521596432 0.066269483538116
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 75.02 1.6593 0.8921 0.0489 0.3131 0.09959992354761 0.030016835202779 0.006075961528913 0.001319672120529
28 28 Portugal POR g 80.92 2.1411 0.8218 0.0135 0.2946 0.160752036494755 0.05504534280025 0.023213380023521 0.005485369361556
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.95 1.6554 0.6267 0.2971 0.6311 0.22749489611123 0.074802874116765 0.021834205170477 0.005082348744604
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.31 2.0712 0.8939 0.258 0.8045 0.276899895539729 0.115647776117668 0.037575821228969 0.008971614785076
31 31 Uruguay URU d 80.77 2.1806 0.8603 0.0608 0.2143 0.094146798309954 0.024242881161266 0.009062891449641 0.002694118130198
32 32 USA USA g 77.53 2.0458 1.0036 0.0581 0.3685 0.181667843824189 0.054667317898632 0.018353123835303 0.003685357768874

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140616-185551" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);