2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140617-175702.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 63.35 1.1178 1.1668 0.0154 0.1213 0.015611458756533 0.003169889333648 0.000351278863478 4.705773395e-05
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8242 0.4467 0.9049 0.9822 0.699413340344258 0.498002272371627 0.318471697900208 0.136446759670542
3 3 Australia AUS b 69.13 1.6537 1.2677 0.0015 0.0198 0.001525283701677 0.000408552182234 7.9272085086e-05 1.2051736825e-05
4 4 Belgium BEL h 82.09 2.1425 0.7344 0.5627 0.8615 0.391309511497652 0.154537050798333 0.060783395073809 0.016111841839472
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.57 2.326 0.9764 0.0353 0.5418 0.227954986435487 0.079189171175073 0.019058456915715 0.006382211458055
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.6 3.3842 0.5578 0.9673 0.9975 0.789924514032611 0.662720005503559 0.510484169365308 0.406590737249902
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.83 2.7238 0.7007 0.3087 0.7766 0.324376255934107 0.205630823225263 0.106036852227964 0.041388930311987
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.15 2.2139 1.0064 0.2245 0.7805 0.3938475376594 0.125321174433142 0.044685157146786 0.00997906427512
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 70.12 1.356 0.967 0.0007 0.0344 0.006848626534489 0.002322450352938 0.000549039993043 6.7907597408e-05
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.63 2.3896 0.4174 0.7509 0.958 0.634702961076865 0.217791127232066 0.109012752351701 0.049064366923894
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.45 1.5906 0.6828 0.4098 0.7155 0.28483286036054 0.076755698950514 0.024433178497035 0.004963855219916
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.38 1.8123 0.9164 0.0019 0.3815 0.104681127161655 0.045191838369243 0.01408961151334 0.002393071043686
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 79.85 1.9826 0.7945 0.0343 0.2083 0.068410739580337 0.030495736461498 0.011380908607936 0.002562096541697
14 14 England ENG d 82.21 2.1664 0.7412 0.086 0.3216 0.147307154078741 0.039741483061258 0.015499588973715 0.004893479106664
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.77 2.6136 0.6381 0.0259 0.247 0.067296870413014 0.04000041567815 0.019571863774139 0.008736802646617
16 16 France FRA e 86.93 2.5422 0.5791 0.6855 0.9207 0.561326905148152 0.277512516065773 0.105374848160287 0.046743939527576
17 17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2869 0.6908 0.8798 0.9836 0.789828948491675 0.546055172681728 0.247442676270444 0.151621708937162
18 18 Ghana GHA g 76.4 1.849 0.9419 0.0048 0.1023 0.046705560917668 0.013428459760293 0.004594338839508 0.000806453715049
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.21 1.2976 0.672 0.0109 0.1497 0.060832786392328 0.017149118982367 0.004765318066362 0.000731688474764
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.2 1.5045 1.2049 0.0064 0.0748 0.012818208200573 0.003702619985788 0.000881115082673 9.9143715031e-05
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.83 1.1909 0.7921 0.0214 0.2 0.053180201108005 0.011575393572768 0.001785280869714 0.000329895559066
22 22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0385 0.8083 0.4423 0.7467 0.339227895550124 0.106099570549208 0.038643529649083 0.00921204046861
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.13 2.073 1.3309 0.0137 0.1118 0.043529905443454 0.011096073425521 0.002870733573771 0.000398267741224
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6881 1.0845 0.1392 0.3874 0.091527936124365 0.023429156732667 0.004761832161234 0.000778231133492
25 25 Mexico MEX a 77.57 1.5338 0.6336 0.0301 0.5866 0.168156000885521 0.073689394160025 0.023645389093682 0.004253012678992
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.88 2.8083 0.7476 0.6639 0.9566 0.537191321336839 0.351209254584094 0.184946732229298 0.067003815155878
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 74.89 1.5476 0.8186 0.0384 0.276 0.089904326587029 0.024303859101251 0.004766604220052 0.00105599379875
28 28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0356 0.9034 0.0089 0.229 0.114180824225 0.03678640248019 0.014302956622465 0.0028958299293
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.86 1.6526 0.6319 0.2827 0.6298 0.212800651687337 0.072500286917457 0.021207519479833 0.004855596492969
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.0756 0.8953 0.2738 0.7962 0.286991292596148 0.113875313538203 0.037233534070231 0.008817353780632
31 31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.1937 0.8626 0.0619 0.2162 0.095718899438585 0.024873019310437 0.009375791335241 0.002768922913094
32 32 USA USA g 78.43 2.0989 0.9785 0.1065 0.6851 0.338035108299679 0.111436699023711 0.038914576986863 0.007987872622677

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140617-175702" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);