2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140617-235154.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 63.35 1.1178 1.1668 0.0199 0.1464 0.019456804399171 0.003858073445074 0.000441109626974 5.7627244668e-05
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8242 0.4467 0.9073 0.9838 0.699744949299442 0.496746662574 0.314562818164205 0.135568246976336
3 3 Australia AUS b 69.13 1.6537 1.2677 0.001 0.0173 0.001449205083239 0.000396376706617 7.6517564387e-05 1.1283605282e-05
4 4 Belgium BEL h 82.09 2.1425 0.7344 0.6391 0.8676 0.410813837768897 0.15943573847899 0.064632985140113 0.016781018344888
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.57 2.326 0.9764 0.0371 0.5455 0.229692146053428 0.079770161356694 0.019745509772951 0.006490033411677
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.6 3.3842 0.5578 0.937 0.9963 0.788481298652098 0.661944710926665 0.509815176742791 0.405902832270686
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.83 2.7238 0.7007 0.3102 0.7779 0.326583619756379 0.206951114199511 0.106457582173094 0.041492410678287
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.15 2.2139 1.0064 0.2233 0.7961 0.401562657818698 0.127636280289133 0.045423107854717 0.010144812486952
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 70.12 1.356 0.967 0.0024 0.0113 0.002259273020542 0.000758713836702 0.000177122756153 2.5392448076e-05
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.63 2.3896 0.4174 0.7573 0.9579 0.634029133235105 0.218718012646684 0.10917437855307 0.049054706790559
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.45 1.5906 0.6828 0.4073 0.7152 0.285934936793189 0.076535765631462 0.024187888070949 0.004934916001466
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.38 1.8123 0.9164 0.0143 0.1922 0.052868927484973 0.022513793542898 0.006945270960729 0.001180081516472
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 79.85 1.9826 0.7945 0.034 0.206 0.066871356348045 0.029462159882103 0.010903301190379 0.002472045824491
14 14 England ENG d 82.21 2.1664 0.7412 0.082 0.3206 0.144518389686604 0.039072978897956 0.015256470205756 0.004801762389458
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.77 2.6136 0.6381 0.0258 0.2444 0.068980691457669 0.040909265739597 0.020088765100509 0.008878639944985
16 16 France FRA e 86.93 2.5422 0.5791 0.6897 0.9195 0.559224099039604 0.275393161341379 0.105406890063363 0.046526256432293
17 17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2869 0.6908 0.8802 0.9847 0.798006764695189 0.551859906282169 0.253109760107228 0.153770123640401
18 18 Ghana GHA g 76.4 1.849 0.9419 0.0052 0.1038 0.046403623834453 0.013323382934131 0.004466937473536 0.000793266584599
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.21 1.2976 0.672 0.0082 0.1416 0.057992299372482 0.016227396494636 0.004498694272851 0.000691645968065
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.2 1.5045 1.2049 0.0062 0.0692 0.011858391305094 0.003388701717815 0.000790059059224 8.9961239214e-05
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.83 1.1909 0.7921 0.022 0.1915 0.051561355813633 0.011295545834824 0.00178089171704 0.000321944841931
22 22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0385 0.8083 0.4523 0.7486 0.340204451940563 0.106464745599314 0.038761930298013 0.009239670959644
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.13 2.073 1.3309 0.0112 0.1044 0.041069689728133 0.010416074760619 0.002675335027035 0.000372814805639
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.42 1.6881 1.0845 0.1225 0.4028 0.089962151805625 0.023617762138257 0.0046119991804 0.000776845024106
25 25 Mexico MEX a 77.57 1.5338 0.6336 0.0463 0.8002 0.229276905243071 0.100658616720836 0.032254235624393 0.005796607992615
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.88 2.8083 0.7476 0.663 0.9604 0.530100079301954 0.346150028712676 0.181824595298952 0.066078886359195
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 74.89 1.5476 0.8186 0.0336 0.2792 0.090265923535462 0.024162100056541 0.004677923340174 0.001049051550102
28 28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0356 0.9034 0.009 0.2224 0.108731933044861 0.035298377238218 0.013489160640287 0.002749750247615
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.86 1.6526 0.6319 0.2185 0.5832 0.187902684519332 0.065393778317047 0.018174121503509 0.00431284635072
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.0756 0.8953 0.2701 0.8053 0.290781778605283 0.115498563238548 0.037679221669598 0.008922698466158
31 31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.1937 0.8626 0.0584 0.2156 0.094688441425265 0.02464612529471 0.009255661062549 0.00273928731271
32 32 USA USA g 78.43 2.0989 0.9785 0.1056 0.6891 0.338722199932387 0.111495925164214 0.038654579785077 0.007972532290712

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140617-235154" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);