2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140618-175722.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 64.31 1.1809 1.1672 0.0229 0.1528 0.021027220390059 0.004370765264809 0.000576713049575 8.1558122314e-05
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.87 2.8229 0.4464 0.9036 0.9828 0.700138705617966 0.498182542514243 0.31593899890557 0.146763028823941
3 3 Australia AUS b 68.89 1.6481 1.2794 0.0 0.0031 0.000298875536712 7.4184948286e-05 1.2837946625e-05 2.312028276e-06
4 4 Belgium BEL h 81.76 2.1436 0.762 0.6521 0.8721 0.410505784126377 0.156824922013106 0.063683091738654 0.017693526680745
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.6 2.3292 0.9776 0.04 0.5605 0.235649592100379 0.082652280270877 0.02256475885638 0.007609909688095
6 6 Brazil BRA a 90.87 3.17 0.531 0.921 0.995 0.753314517373174 0.613087485929048 0.452676706240401 0.34630042703384
7 7 Chile CHI b 86.81 2.7213 0.703 0.2664 0.776 0.322796454740158 0.20155149912042 0.102673537441406 0.043512901858137
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.16 2.213 1.0064 0.2266 0.7899 0.397734733010506 0.127661647001768 0.045403819435021 0.011161314997554
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 70.21 1.3672 0.9711 0.0044 0.0129 0.002627043704899 0.000843555164696 0.000191164595593 3.1757934521e-05
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.62 2.3867 0.4172 0.7524 0.9632 0.638209451165489 0.239628231371838 0.119410469642296 0.055347528912563
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.5 1.5935 0.6832 0.4089 0.7217 0.287676524298726 0.078460906671701 0.024852880804847 0.005589829700293
12 12 Croatia CRO a 76.23 1.8127 0.9277 0.0162 0.1781 0.04850115088135 0.020497731176444 0.006280986340508 0.001180379654884
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 79.87 1.9878 0.7975 0.0358 0.2062 0.067444756323972 0.029648299873543 0.011024488071069 0.002756171669223
14 14 England ENG d 82.22 2.1666 0.742 0.0907 0.3224 0.148709405612397 0.043825585936929 0.017075895865959 0.005635600752756
15 15 Spain ESP b 86.76 2.6117 0.6396 0.0037 0.2226 0.061579656635719 0.035585433813723 0.017025559282279 0.008243812601831
16 16 France FRA e 86.92 2.5397 0.5798 0.6927 0.9212 0.560748809249763 0.276456012338045 0.113159985467084 0.051657637657079
17 17 Germany GER g 90.09 3.2839 0.6908 0.881 0.9826 0.800623274479749 0.552710638765162 0.274523270945022 0.16876841491392
18 18 Ghana GHA g 76.42 1.8491 0.9418 0.0049 0.1032 0.046740032211347 0.0135608189932 0.004602440395653 0.000904828543633
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.2 1.2966 0.6725 0.0104 0.144 0.058773528515287 0.01636031312176 0.004525160627554 0.000775242098635
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.16 1.508 1.2109 0.0058 0.0685 0.011711892565236 0.003439637451417 0.000813314362142 0.00010254550469
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.82 1.1905 0.7931 0.0219 0.1885 0.050278621529754 0.011008099527739 0.001896875572426 0.000359656574617
22 22 Italy ITA d 80.19 2.0408 0.8109 0.4406 0.7458 0.335996861835106 0.107469016416378 0.039077687987255 0.010188461646103
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.07 2.0699 1.334 0.0106 0.1029 0.040150978526725 0.010070867675947 0.002608302112807 0.000404004174554
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.44 1.6875 1.0839 0.1271 0.4091 0.092030359057277 0.024067022874219 0.005001613959496 0.000902819017832
25 25 Mexico MEX a 78.6 1.4824 0.5291 0.0584 0.814 0.243506161666402 0.109374474647175 0.036430722206383 0.007651192924114
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.87 2.8048 0.7484 0.7299 0.9983 0.567376139461621 0.369573974801907 0.194446213570591 0.075964188008969
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 74.94 1.5518 0.8196 0.0345 0.2682 0.087103324347998 0.023458026121861 0.00500806340576 0.001169299701613
28 28 Portugal POR g 78.86 2.0416 0.9083 0.009 0.2359 0.116866939311736 0.038082292774974 0.014514558182523 0.003282586035377
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.28 1.6108 0.6428 0.1979 0.566 0.174947496476308 0.059470010573821 0.016570918213655 0.004136567192528
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.35 2.074 0.8956 0.2657 0.8041 0.286924298264958 0.114840186957911 0.038744140397878 0.009912132414606
31 31 Uruguay URU d 80.88 2.193 0.8631 0.0598 0.2101 0.092748517035733 0.025935092201975 0.009670998865268 0.003030836555616
32 32 USA USA g 78.49 2.1028 0.9782 0.1051 0.6783 0.337258893947086 0.11122844368505 0.039013825512317 0.008879526577138

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140618-175722" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);