2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140620-175706.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 64.25 1.1759 1.1674 0.0232 0.1543 0.022835907167855 0.00476904973308 0.000602637972346 8.7679587371e-05
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.91 2.8255 0.4452 0.9061 0.9808 0.69659633088281 0.497148248736334 0.320315610539402 0.149828002006455
3 3 Australia AUS b 70.13 1.7862 1.3112 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 4 Belgium BEL h 81.82 2.1461 0.7596 0.6428 0.8682 0.412875355072011 0.158629813122804 0.065261159709122 0.018441197075277
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.59 2.331 0.9799 0.0353 0.5451 0.230277902130814 0.08466073728894 0.022481683239052 0.007695674154236
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1914 0.5169 0.9171 0.994 0.751520982803731 0.604763552461688 0.45952712524834 0.356142621157298
7 7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7346 0.6173 0.4 1.0 0.444360714302379 0.293034407765183 0.158846734523431 0.070287490757
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2615 1.0159 0.0108 0.7372 0.400616923401478 0.149401721258041 0.055005484555236 0.013142660705766
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4899 1.1181 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.5 2.4207 0.4508 0.9892 1.0 0.653888603817334 0.211712155267628 0.106617842780913 0.053793908912468
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5984 0.6861 0.8777 1.0 0.45324521510871 0.144852682593008 0.046959530031219 0.009867884554179
12 12 Croatia CRO a 79.63 2.0389 0.8511 0.0377 0.3894 0.127151931937598 0.064963246255238 0.023454511687896 0.005434334595609
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9872 0.7934 0.0365 0.2089 0.068355499565024 0.030453448411651 0.011559482647284 0.00293541632814
14 14 England ENG d 81.52 2.1296 0.7722 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.4782 0.653 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 16 France FRA e 86.89 2.5361 0.5808 0.6808 0.917 0.556064568591515 0.284882826031245 0.115400707298756 0.052863873267941
17 17 Germany GER g 89.41 3.2374 0.7435 0.8664 0.9797 0.782070379378853 0.524242307058875 0.247077083282266 0.146447588058498
18 18 Ghana GHA g 76.28 1.8448 0.9487 0.0074 0.105 0.047158915296495 0.013596674956109 0.004613237309204 0.000920365880884
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.23 1.183 0.5846 0.0 0.2233 0.097054073891253 0.027821489702483 0.007722646799765 0.001315974867433
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.14 1.506 1.2117 0.006 0.0672 0.01163523555305 0.003413755162707 0.000828664979235 0.000105957304965
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.83 1.1912 0.7941 0.023 0.1952 0.052593960205751 0.012357571717041 0.00208598523878 0.00040005950373
22 22 Italy ITA d 80.06 2.0297 0.813 0.0627 0.6084 0.219303080240191 0.048465443441074 0.017122653411957 0.005486093908577
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.26 1.9584 1.2372 0.0 0.0395 0.016644800542748 0.004520828153212 0.001187025245443 0.000182559298926
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.53 1.6905 1.0807 0.1249 0.4103 0.095962976732323 0.025390392562109 0.005196489898874 0.000964628540991
25 25 Mexico MEX a 78.38 1.4687 0.5347 0.0452 0.6166 0.182952447295162 0.087119179724082 0.028767746772281 0.006024091855846
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.13 2.7973 0.8149 0.6 1.0 0.494013923661116 0.32178839582544 0.16401886295577 0.062846972493163
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 74.87 1.5464 0.8209 0.0356 0.2789 0.090088780845662 0.025725508078951 0.005368811319056 0.001262649390868
28 28 Portugal POR g 79.07 2.0819 0.9218 0.0087 0.2234 0.111907770973041 0.036955895436089 0.01461064560803 0.003390986903728
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.34 1.6128 0.6409 0.2091 0.5672 0.183582011103681 0.063003102207562 0.017739585016368 0.004456106612666
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.55 2.0841 0.8886 0.2767 0.8069 0.29438772222527 0.121056815432626 0.04112396530264 0.010802845164377
31 31 Uruguay URU d 81.42 2.231 0.8484 0.0596 0.3916 0.159247302998357 0.041556897552906 0.016157161354577 0.005560221524622
32 32 USA USA g 78.44 2.1002 0.9802 0.1175 0.6919 0.343606684275809 0.113713854063873 0.040346925272739 0.009312155588988

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140620-175706" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);