2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140620-205534.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 64.25 1.1759 1.1674 0.0232 0.1604 0.023128830438246 0.004448543135531 0.000582508529558 8.3393646164e-05
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.91 2.8255 0.4452 0.9048 0.9836 0.728970292180501 0.520977355630789 0.336042559528467 0.156884703093599
3 3 Australia AUS b 70.13 1.7862 1.3112 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 4 Belgium BEL h 81.82 2.1461 0.7596 0.652 0.8701 0.414402421539728 0.159263879393432 0.066182618837866 0.018538681528129
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.59 2.331 0.9799 0.0381 0.5486 0.207386325221772 0.07669224551236 0.020730335128453 0.007014809408117
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1914 0.5169 0.913 0.993 0.751137661316096 0.604762382010199 0.455936173435561 0.35337724797672
7 7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7346 0.6173 0.4032 1.0 0.449670625947163 0.296483744450777 0.160402407844753 0.070590648217525
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2615 1.0159 0.0136 0.7437 0.404001513662431 0.150415495112739 0.055952084485426 0.013312948955011
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4899 1.1181 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.5 2.4207 0.4508 0.9864 1.0 0.653945191914021 0.2125652594789 0.105049227803878 0.052925306616604
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5984 0.6861 0.877 1.0 0.452074806470038 0.144070877583624 0.047091439666989 0.00985886758119
12 12 Croatia CRO a 79.63 2.0389 0.8511 0.039 0.4011 0.130779471856502 0.066753857703682 0.024182657763956 0.005589441009655
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9872 0.7934 0.0104 0.246 0.072779661686506 0.034507683382796 0.014001974502685 0.003398836077798
14 14 England ENG d 81.52 2.1296 0.7722 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.4782 0.653 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 16 France FRA e 86.89 2.5361 0.5808 0.9892 0.9999 0.663957643160816 0.321656403930504 0.115753107592807 0.057467780572742
17 17 Germany GER g 89.41 3.2374 0.7435 0.8682 0.9823 0.784827397270634 0.505181304189792 0.238613669357825 0.141352890485526
18 18 Ghana GHA g 76.28 1.8448 0.9487 0.0049 0.1034 0.046067289942881 0.013411515750879 0.004619307683218 0.000910624837535
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.23 1.183 0.5846 0.0 0.2096 0.091057377342489 0.025889682928221 0.007236594553583 0.001233235262625
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.14 1.506 1.2117 0.0 0.099 0.015519344002036 0.004895751777302 0.001237861115839 0.000153368958942
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.83 1.1912 0.7941 0.0223 0.1998 0.046938663211291 0.011193873281768 0.001907926317125 0.000362231820514
22 22 Italy ITA d 80.06 2.0297 0.813 0.0618 0.6042 0.218114510652567 0.048323860924281 0.016693611374103 0.005334374687726
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.26 1.9584 1.2372 0.0 0.0467 0.019635818158276 0.005292022111419 0.001386891180085 0.000213064190702
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.53 1.6905 1.0807 0.1263 0.4093 0.096508844101223 0.024373989543482 0.005088236270568 0.000929751659007
25 25 Mexico MEX a 78.38 1.4687 0.5347 0.048 0.6059 0.179602236491241 0.085267512245655 0.028437818293097 0.005931468712131
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.13 2.7973 0.8149 0.5968 1.0 0.488810004388978 0.318028018214003 0.16222484704371 0.062204214417806
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 74.87 1.5464 0.8209 0.0348 0.268 0.077312451973385 0.022331651068992 0.00484453628516 0.001108245094985
28 28 Portugal POR g 79.07 2.0819 0.9218 0.011 0.2361 0.118171300570306 0.039537951365411 0.015656267958082 0.003615739055143
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.34 1.6128 0.6409 0.1985 0.5602 0.179885039054197 0.059545111795584 0.016886415652969 0.004218337910818
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.55 2.0841 0.8886 0.0004 0.6551 0.187135618563605 0.090268542884277 0.03717547338101 0.008692065009419
31 31 Uruguay URU d 81.42 2.231 0.8484 0.0612 0.3958 0.161170781800249 0.042147287236489 0.016189189600317 0.005552502455602
32 32 USA USA g 78.44 2.1002 0.9802 0.1159 0.6782 0.33700887708285 0.111714197357099 0.039894258812885 0.009145220758263

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140620-205534" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);