2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140620-235753.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 64.25 1.1759 1.1674 0.0208 0.1612 0.023822225564571 0.0046420464694 0.000592933348165 8.5072360298e-05
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.91 2.8255 0.4452 0.9052 0.984 0.719888193478627 0.513814810737178 0.33147680419914 0.154742830446819
3 3 Australia AUS b 70.13 1.7862 1.3112 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 4 Belgium BEL h 81.82 2.1461 0.7596 0.6544 0.8665 0.414125292809248 0.159179303798644 0.066443325907681 0.018571782757338
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.59 2.331 0.9799 0.0372 0.5445 0.204790601211718 0.076074350787074 0.020498952092898 0.006959851041733
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.09 3.1914 0.5169 0.92 0.9954 0.752706620567035 0.605588341211518 0.456774958488082 0.354388160028907
7 7 Chile CHI b 87.77 2.7346 0.6173 0.3974 1.0 0.445662610716725 0.293890603221623 0.159126969016228 0.070203351101303
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2615 1.0159 0.0129 0.7494 0.406801682807295 0.152064699131503 0.056571300933451 0.013439692710298
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 69.44 1.4899 1.1181 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.5 2.4207 0.4508 0.9871 1.0 0.653977246340077 0.211188125680986 0.104492013744209 0.052890321846411
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 77.52 1.5984 0.6861 0.8753 1.0 0.451403600167022 0.144139825903059 0.04725837597717 0.009882227261625
12 12 Croatia CRO a 79.63 2.0389 0.8511 0.0401 0.3956 0.129102758690642 0.065723788540646 0.023988080599226 0.005528494441971
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 79.93 1.9872 0.7934 0.0052 0.3843 0.112807698872174 0.054542986989533 0.022649989569531 0.005424000820114
14 14 England ENG d 81.52 2.1296 0.7722 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 15 Spain ESP b 85.72 2.4782 0.653 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 16 France FRA e 86.89 2.5361 0.5808 0.994 0.9994 0.665198423966258 0.323177620218612 0.115555967037256 0.057683207086759
17 17 Germany GER g 89.41 3.2374 0.7435 0.8599 0.9785 0.782265074850978 0.503062936429486 0.237878978773379 0.140985288896357
18 18 Ghana GHA g 76.28 1.8448 0.9487 0.0064 0.1106 0.049429436958193 0.014443910386641 0.004991540030426 0.000983750552676
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.23 1.183 0.5846 0.0 0.2093 0.091095166341826 0.026092445743608 0.007359553867938 0.001249146660718
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.14 1.506 1.2117 0.0 0.0156 0.002432526982666 0.000734629689273 0.00018779119298 2.3064435524e-05
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.83 1.1912 0.7941 0.0214 0.2008 0.046550358971309 0.011082094753769 0.001889200670292 0.00035941093833
22 22 Italy ITA d 80.06 2.0297 0.813 0.0628 0.6024 0.217710500748267 0.048184156766244 0.016663007547241 0.005335888838292
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.26 1.9584 1.2372 0.0 0.0413 0.017369024148292 0.004648681410656 0.00122902405135 0.000189541010474
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.53 1.6905 1.0807 0.1233 0.4119 0.096494811533901 0.024301739732359 0.00501814625436 0.000926273030152
25 25 Mexico MEX a 78.38 1.4687 0.5347 0.0399 0.609 0.180654522823442 0.086135301822886 0.02871484839285 0.005987791925262
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.13 2.7973 0.8149 0.6026 1.0 0.491873487202138 0.32018487646384 0.163751799148315 0.06265510240287
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 74.87 1.5464 0.8209 0.0362 0.2707 0.077628599563765 0.022474913266808 0.004848223145595 0.001115721275687
28 28 Portugal POR g 79.07 2.0819 0.9218 0.0101 0.2315 0.115652535343067 0.038730146787384 0.015375480783476 0.003550241445562
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.34 1.6128 0.6409 0.2015 0.5604 0.180211638623945 0.059557797863492 0.016905187766969 0.004226365924494
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 79.55 2.0841 0.8886 0.0008 0.6007 0.170703596953412 0.082035219873791 0.033799447450837 0.007901844044491
31 31 Uruguay URU d 81.42 2.231 0.8484 0.0619 0.3976 0.161642779447292 0.042159154103415 0.016205081689228 0.005568191936182
32 32 USA USA g 78.44 2.1002 0.9802 0.1236 0.6794 0.337998984316163 0.112145492216554 0.039753018321702 0.009143384779355

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140620-235753" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);