2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140621-092639.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 64.22 1.1757 1.1682 0.0244 0.1582 0.023166162122699 0.004084847504909 0.00054973762944 7.604185105e-05
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.92 2.8288 0.4448 0.9031 0.9824 0.725457153243354 0.519716092707156 0.334890609367989 0.155917001921156
3 3 Australia AUS b 70.33 1.7888 1.2996 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 4 Belgium BEL h 81.82 2.1451 0.7583 0.6401 0.8666 0.41165700820111 0.156557934406851 0.065180231546716 0.018091629145959
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.59 2.3324 0.9795 0.0384 0.5512 0.191009482587245 0.070884546193399 0.01949189440286 0.006530780170602
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.1874 0.5156 0.9173 0.9929 0.749624675669057 0.602838028976017 0.448627392778697 0.347552864723153
7 7 Chile CHI b 87.79 2.7379 0.6167 0.4055 1.0 0.449575556260694 0.295792980773069 0.159165416020229 0.069921719734139
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2617 1.0151 0.0129 0.7421 0.39419391504253 0.147045709636521 0.054792158275299 0.012888100361301
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 69.4 1.4905 1.12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.51 2.4223 0.4507 0.9871 1.0 0.65844000576036 0.21366417404072 0.102949139912218 0.052062316807201
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.55 1.5911 0.6107 0.8828 1.0 0.468423547284059 0.15582642489434 0.053166105597556 0.011581610897557
12 12 Croatia CRO a 79.53 2.0276 0.8497 0.0362 0.393 0.12704570782419 0.064031494688966 0.023170756455591 0.005270187224499
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.0 1.989 0.789 0.0035 0.3701 0.108088642251444 0.052616659438437 0.0219202595679 0.005205146046259
14 14 England ENG d 81.43 2.1314 0.7789 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 15 Spain ESP b 85.73 2.4815 0.6526 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 16 France FRA e 87.82 2.7485 0.62 0.9964 0.9999 0.696245436195975 0.359770237711857 0.139544954327771 0.074217902194265
17 17 Germany GER g 89.38 3.237 0.745 0.8686 0.9789 0.781132735898669 0.482509311706244 0.227422638331801 0.13471570790295
18 18 Ghana GHA g 76.28 1.8449 0.9481 0.0061 0.1068 0.047828836360968 0.013815678226675 0.004757817719209 0.000930381739632
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.21 1.1796 0.5825 0.0 0.2173 0.092060107124945 0.026082241438075 0.007373551743183 0.001235686511209
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.33 1.5117 1.2037 0.0 0.017 0.002805780764089 0.000890984570824 0.000232183700824 2.8182526389e-05
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.81 1.1916 0.7949 0.0213 0.2017 0.042081373831627 0.010099375388744 0.00177137560944 0.000328625674797
22 22 Italy ITA d 79.26 1.9422 0.8095 0.0561 0.5865 0.202206524903366 0.042236327915241 0.013608098069283 0.004175785673643
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.35 1.9701 1.2392 0.0 0.0406 0.016691752694574 0.004499639591087 0.001195612003638 0.000182103430333
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.52 1.6902 1.0808 0.1262 0.4033 0.094874055647119 0.022733064065839 0.0048493756932 0.000867022027835
25 25 Mexico MEX a 78.45 1.4757 0.534 0.0465 0.6141 0.182256107119633 0.085970599421596 0.02884569208446 0.005977903930816
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.18 2.7976 0.8089 0.5945 1.0 0.491497953126503 0.318202609323489 0.16243913732584 0.062104981271612
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 74.86 1.5469 0.8212 0.0372 0.2647 0.069883343225459 0.020547996680005 0.004591934556325 0.001028184413318
28 28 Portugal POR g 79.07 2.082 0.9213 0.0093 0.2271 0.113828833907053 0.037940372133572 0.015108265352603 0.003443053546416
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.33 1.6129 0.6409 0.2093 0.5719 0.184605200223657 0.058629632536295 0.016894734040026 0.004158800701008
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 78.27 2.1691 1.0401 0.0001 0.613 0.164428787900718 0.076495493656633 0.030097049017208 0.006524626107716
31 31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2386 0.8471 0.0611 0.4135 0.167984147190118 0.043809769300841 0.016549659836536 0.005698587651306
32 32 USA USA g 78.54 2.1097 0.9792 0.116 0.6872 0.342907167638804 0.112707773072586 0.040814219034151 0.009285065813876

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140621-092639" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);