2014 World Cup Tournament Predictions: wc-20140621-175630.csv

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FiveThirtyEight's forecasts for the 2014 World Cup, including each team's SPI rating and chance of advancing, updated throughout the course of the tournment. The date and time of each update are indicated in the file name: wc-YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS.csv. All times are in GMT.

Header Definition
spi Soccer Power Index
spi_offense Soccer Power Index offensive rating
spi_defense Soccer Power Index defensive rating
win_group Change of coming in first place in the group stage
sixteen Chance of advancing to the knockout stage
quarter Chance of advancing to the quarter finals
semi Chance of advancing to the semi-finals
cup Chance of making it to the final game
win Chance of winning the whole thing

Note: Projections from June 27 onward reflect an improvement to FiveThirtyEight's methodology for projecting knockout-round results that estimates each team's probability of winning in extra time based on its SPI ratings. Projections prior to June 27 instead split all extra-time games 50-50.

For the World Cup predictions interactive, click here.

For an explanation of SPI, click here.

Data license: CC Attribution 4.0 License · Data source: fivethirtyeight/data on GitHub · About: simonw/fivethirtyeight-datasette

32 rows

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Suggested facets: group, win_group, sixteen, quarter, semi, cup, win

Link rowid ▼ country country_id group spi spi_offense spi_defense win_group sixteen quarter semi cup win
1 1 Algeria ALG h 64.22 1.1757 1.1682 0.0207 0.1512 0.022330939908544 0.003934938083412 0.000509239903263 7.1529029151e-05
2 2 Argentina ARG f 89.92 2.8288 0.4448 0.9558 1.0 0.746010222596604 0.536572529196136 0.348392052995195 0.161068422859964
3 3 Australia AUS b 70.33 1.7888 1.2996 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 4 Belgium BEL h 81.82 2.1451 0.7583 0.6377 0.8706 0.41010108424326 0.152521130352073 0.062860574044602 0.017552453575596
5 5 Bosnia and Herzegovina BIH f 80.59 2.3324 0.9795 0.0228 0.5751 0.195514231510392 0.071487688518534 0.01870327811861 0.006484958921744
6 6 Brazil BRA a 91.07 3.1874 0.5156 0.9156 0.9928 0.749728965242161 0.6031009476606 0.449907637404639 0.346946571135344
7 7 Chile CHI b 87.79 2.7379 0.6167 0.4056 1.0 0.452162100859619 0.297526489417052 0.158700505345786 0.069536999579368
8 8 Ivory Coast CIV c 79.49 2.2617 1.0151 0.0137 0.7372 0.39183381716146 0.146136210681355 0.053209638241745 0.012551410286821
9 9 Cameroon CMR a 69.4 1.4905 1.12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 10 Colombia COL c 87.51 2.4223 0.4507 0.9863 1.0 0.658395616461208 0.214020198631797 0.103524839244391 0.051878137484141
11 11 Costa Rica CRC d 78.55 1.5911 0.6107 0.884 1.0 0.468585737469347 0.155812111139688 0.052003823017005 0.0113566570064
12 12 Croatia CRO a 79.53 2.0276 0.8497 0.0374 0.3934 0.127119507970965 0.064005852541323 0.022659862298681 0.005165588300384
13 13 Ecuador ECU e 80.0 1.989 0.789 0.0031 0.368 0.101937647713106 0.049391310638486 0.020500771607297 0.004890066632784
14 14 England ENG d 81.43 2.1314 0.7789 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 15 Spain ESP b 85.73 2.4815 0.6526 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16 16 France FRA e 87.82 2.7485 0.62 0.9968 1.0 0.702985601540641 0.364408875261879 0.141276003919737 0.074621374919171
17 17 Germany GER g 89.38 3.237 0.745 0.8621 0.9804 0.780813067777726 0.483319516512021 0.228984874862956 0.134395427183713
18 18 Ghana GHA g 76.28 1.8449 0.9481 0.0063 0.1041 0.046905279222631 0.013076771862061 0.004494135324401 0.000877776011801
19 19 Greece GRE c 74.21 1.1796 0.5825 0.0 0.2179 0.092188490190912 0.026039862044215 0.007164844414217 0.001206912492616
20 20 Honduras HON e 68.33 1.5117 1.2037 0.0 0.0211 0.002975136862548 0.000930171905971 0.00024264658383 2.9593309301e-05
21 21 Iran IRN f 70.81 1.1916 0.7949 0.0 0.158 0.030169926064176 0.006567965975279 0.000912093085508 0.000200133596448
22 22 Italy ITA d 79.26 1.9422 0.8095 0.0579 0.5873 0.202942127586334 0.042533245832515 0.013690073366448 0.004167541391797
23 23 Japan JPN c 73.35 1.9701 1.2392 0.0 0.0449 0.018438957802457 0.004870428483868 0.001270164054703 0.000194416886105
24 24 South Korea KOR h 72.52 1.6902 1.0808 0.1338 0.4094 0.096965208095608 0.022860249952305 0.004893576752342 0.000871243143146
25 25 Mexico MEX a 78.45 1.4757 0.534 0.047 0.6138 0.182050042541825 0.085905462795437 0.028139694053628 0.0058499656513
26 26 Netherlands NED b 86.18 2.7976 0.8089 0.5944 1.0 0.488939383385503 0.316574598506248 0.159349157144149 0.061051780531527
27 27 Nigeria NGA f 74.86 1.5469 0.8212 0.0214 0.2669 0.06740797989739 0.019120064931071 0.003908233816256 0.000923915162194
28 28 Portugal POR g 79.07 2.082 0.9213 0.0106 0.2294 0.114658963657222 0.037214961630846 0.01472619630637 0.003371325752347
29 29 Russia RUS h 78.33 1.6129 0.6409 0.2078 0.5688 0.184813868297938 0.057760492754314 0.016517793350981 0.004062066335886
30 30 Switzerland SUI e 78.27 2.1691 1.0401 0.0001 0.6109 0.152999253815051 0.071048647528388 0.027919382448285 0.006075092081885
31 31 Uruguay URU d 81.49 2.2386 0.8471 0.0581 0.4127 0.167615253328232 0.043474592265867 0.01629654435124 0.005605313746916
32 32 USA USA g 78.54 2.1097 0.9792 0.121 0.6861 0.343411588797146 0.109784684897249 0.039242363943736 0.008993326992148

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CREATE TABLE "world-cup-predictions/wc-20140621-175630" (
"country" TEXT,
  "country_id" TEXT,
  "group" TEXT,
  "spi" REAL,
  "spi_offense" REAL,
  "spi_defense" REAL,
  "win_group" REAL,
  "sixteen" REAL,
  "quarter" REAL,
  "semi" REAL,
  "cup" REAL,
  "win" REAL
);